January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[T. August]

Gfs might do something big at 228

[yoda]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

it looks like 4-8" - not a HECS but not gonna kick it out of bed

6-12 with Kuchera for most

[87storms]

I actually am of the small camp maybe that doesn't love the GGEM at h5 on h168... I'll reserve judgement. 

Looks like a suppressed pattern next week…maybe too much of a cold push. But still intriguing.

I want a snowstorm.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

GGEM is also a dogshit model if anyone here didn't know (most of you already knew ) 

EURO also smoked us 12z yesterday then showed nada at 00z... think this is just gonna require a lot of patience. 

[yoda]

Just now, T. August said:

Gfs might do something big at 228

Is doing something big at 228

[Amped]

Gfs turned out better day 9. Lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO also smoked us 12z yesterday then showed nada at 00z... think this is just gonna require a lot of patience. 

These models have very little resolve even on Sunday at a little more than d4. No way we can rely on them at d7-8 until that's more clear. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

S/W on the GGEM not as sharp as 0z.  Dragging its heels coming east.

GGEm is decent. i would take it

[yoda]

Just now, Ji said:

GGEm is decent. i would take it

But you lost so much snow

[Terpeast]

CMC is on par with GFS for 6-10 day verification in North America over the past month or two. Euro and AIFS better. 

I think the next week's storm(?) is going to be a 72-hour or less tracking thing. Beyond that, we might be playing the roulette wheel.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

GGEM is also a dogshit model if anyone here didn't know (most of you already knew ) 

Verifying better than the GFS this year. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Verifying better than the GFS this year. 

I hear you, I'm just not sure how much that means given the GFS is almost down there with the Navgem. 

[DDweatherman]

all this cold push, when can we get a damn Screamer from up north? Maybe a Mauler? 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

GGEm is decent. i would take it

apply the ratios of your choice:

[H2O]

day 7 storms and y'all still haven't learned.  Those gifs encapsulate everything.  There is no consistency in things that far out

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

apply the ratios of your choice:

Another 86 inch banger for DC. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

day 7 storms and y'all still haven't learned.  Those gifs encapsulate everything.  There is no consistency in things that far out

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

CMC is on par with GFS for 6-10 day verification in North America over the past month or two. Euro and AIFS better. 

I think the next week's storm(?) is going to be a 72-hour or less tracking thing. Beyond that, we might be playing the roulette wheel.

Yessir, agree completely. It's why I haven't done much looking other than ops. When run over run and model against model shows wide swings with every run, you can be VERY confident in not have ANY confidence in a specific solution. Ops are spread wide and ensembles are shotguns 

I always keep it simple. Spread is large but on the balance, the solutions are quite snowy and not rainy except for the initial front. So that tells me there are multiple chances at snowfall thru the end of the month. Our area almost requires multiple chances. My thought algorithm keeps landing on there's a high probability of accum snow or winter wx thru the end of Jan. 

I'll jump back in when ops and ensembles agree on something discrete for more than one suite and a range less than 5-6 days. 

[midatlanticweather]

This is quite painful to look at! LOL! @Ji - The too far north, south, east, west statement comes to mind! LOL! 

 

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

But you lost so much snow

i fell asleep early so i didnt see the 00z CMC so i lost no snow

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

This is quite painful to look at! LOL! @Ji - The too far north, south, east, west statement comes to mind! LOL! 

 

On the contrary, this is an absolutely exquisite map and if it's right, I'll post lots of pics to make up for the discrepancy in our yards

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

GGEM is also a dogshit model if anyone here didn't know (most of you already knew ) 

They are all doing this...its too many moving parts at a long lead time for them to handle.  We are several days away from getting a better idea on the options next week...there are 2 threats BTW.  

[stormtracker]

Relax. We all know the range of possibilities for both storms. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Relax. We all know the range of possibilities for both storms. 

But it will be fun watching the nervous breakdowns some are going to have if they live and die with each model run over the next few days! 

[adelphi_sky]

17 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This is quite painful to look at! LOL! @Ji - The too far north, south, east, west statement comes to mind! LOL! 

 

Wow! Atlanta would be paralyzed. 

[adelphi_sky]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it will be fun watching the nervous breakdowns some are going to have if they live and die with each model run over the next few days! 

I think the brutal cold will offer solace. I'm equally excited about that. 

[WxUSAF]

Any snow next Wednesday-Thursday period would be accompanied by some very cold temps. Been awhile since we had significant snowfall with temps in the teens or colder.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it will be fun watching the nervous breakdowns some are going to have if they live and die with each model run over the next few days! 

Some of them aren’t gonna make it. 

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

MOST of them aren’t gonna make it. 

Fixed it for you

[ravensrule]

@stormtracker are you done your prostate exam so you can give us the Euro pbp?.