stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Looks like something trying post 192 Not looking good so far..could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, stormtracker said: Waiting to see if it has a later storm like the GFS Just a tease. Lots of precip to the south, nothing ever makes it up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Looks like something trying post 192 Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, TSSN+ said: Just a tease. Lots of precip to the south, nothing ever makes it up But I bet it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Onward and upward to 18z in this game of model roulette! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, mitchnick said: But I bet it's cold. 5 here on Tuesday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, stormtracker said: Onward and upward to 18z in this game of model roulette! Trust me Jenna is coming, it's just a matter of when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, mitchnick said: But I bet it's cold. Like a 2 day cold period yawn. Drought be droughtin 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: But I bet it's cold. 0 here Wed AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 0 here Wed AM urban cold island effect 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Might have to go see my mom in SC. To snow chase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: But I bet it's cold. It’s going to be cold no matter what. Whether we get snow depends on how the TPV behaves during its elongation and split and the amplitude of the waves out west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: urban cold island effect If that -1 verifies, I'll definitely wake my son up and take a shot with him and the temp. He's stoked about next week's cold. He wants to do all kinds of experiments. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Baja lows are the worst, you keep refreshing waiting for it to start moving northeast and it never does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s going to be cold no matter what. Whether we get snow depends on how the TPV behaves during its elongation and split and the amplitude of the waves out west. What do you think about it looking like a quick shot? I see 40's dominating my LR forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Brutal Still in the game. Wouldn't take a lot to turn hours 144-198 into a long duration overrunning event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It’s going to be cold no matter what. Whether we get snow depends on how the TPV behaves during its elongation and split and the amplitude of the waves out west. My coworker, who was an operational forecaster for several years (and still checks the models, though now in biz dev) insinuated similar. Polar vortex might push things south, but how south who knows. Interesting pattern regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gimme dat cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: What do you think about it looking like a quick shot? I see 40's dominating my LR forecast. The TPV slides by pretty quick to our north and as of now it looks like the pattern relaxes some after without another immediate shot of arctic air. But its a long ways out. But more importatntly that is not my main concern. I am hunting snow, could care less about getting frigid below 0 temps. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie Tuesday night. This is the closest it gets. So from 2’ to 0 in less than 24 hours. I would swear to God but too much carnage would fall upon me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Waiting to see if it has a later storm like the GFS We have avoided the “delayed but…” pattern so far and hope this is not the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: So from 2’ to 0 in less than 24 hours. I would swear to God but too much carnage would fall upon me. That was the GGEM that had the crazy 2 ft solutions, and its still the most amplified of the operationals at 12z but its more like 4-8" for the cities with more SE. However, we are not supposed to use operational runs at this range. The ensembles are meant for this, and the most common solution across the ensembles has been a miss to the southeast with that wave. Doesn't mean it cant hit, its not so far off that there is no chance, but seeing one run of one model show some 2ft storm does not mean "THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING 2ft" when 90% of the guidance when taken holistically as a whole show nothing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We have avoided the “delayed but…” pattern so far and hope this is not the beginning My feeling is it’d be denied vs delayed but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 That's a nutty 24hr mean for the deep south. Jeez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: My feeling is it’d be denied vs delayed but There are going to be multiple waves starting with Sunday. Euro misses with 4 straight, 3 south and then one north. Could we get that unlucky, sure, but I still feel optimistic something hits during this coming period...maybe not the first one but it would take some bad luck to miss every wave. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: That's a nutty 24hr mean for the deep south. Jeez be still, my beating heart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That was the GGEM that had the crazy 2 ft solutions, and its still the most amplified of the operationals at 12z but its more like 4-8" for the cities with more SE. However, we are not supposed to use operational runs at this range. The ensembles are meant for this, and the most common solution across the ensembles has been a miss to the southeast with that wave. Doesn't mean it cant hit, its not so far off that there is no chance, but seeing one run of one model show some 2ft storm does not mean "THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING 2ft" when 90% of the guidance when taken holistically as a whole show nothing. So you now agree with me that the models DO NOT predict weather but rather provide samples of a wide variety of possible outcomes. Then change that every 6 hours. I would also say the rest of them did not show “nothing” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My feeling is it’d be denied vs delayed but That’s why delayed but not denied is mostly incorrect. At least it’s cold because when it isn’t it almost doesn’t matter where the low goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 @mitchnickand his "too much cold suppression pattern" has been very quiet.....too quiet. And i don't like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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