January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[87storms]

Right?
I'm calling it now...mid-month triple phaser.

We’re due for a blizzard between 1/6 and 1/22.

[Prismshine Productions]

Crazy map y'all having more snow than us up here

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[Paleocene]

This is slightly off topic and a question for red taggers.  But what are the statistical error ranges on projected snowfall or qpf totals? Are there any comprehensible stats that describe that somewhere? I'm wondering when I hear people mention things like "oh I lost .2 qpf on the latest run." What's the error range on .75 expected qpf at 120 hours out? Probability bounds? Confidence intervals?

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

This is slightly off topic and a question for red taggers.  But what are the statistical error ranges on projected snowfall or qpf totals? Are there any comprehensible stats that describe that somewhere? I'm wondering when I hear people mention things like "oh I lost .2 qpf on the latest run." What's the error range on .75 expected qpf at 120 hours out? Probability bounds? Confidence intervals?

This is a good question for @dtk or @high risk

[stormtracker]

sw s/w coming out again.  Let's see what this thang does

[bncho]

Jaws?????

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

sw s/w coming out again.  Let's see what this thang does

 

[stormtracker]

H5 maps is still a fucking mess, but better.   Still looks likely not to produce, although there's gulf moisture gathering..not sure it's gonna move north

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

Jaws?????

 

Hold ya horses.  Not sure with that messy ass H5 map

[stormtracker]

Hmm

[mitchnick]

Gunna be real close. N stream heading down and starting to interact at 192hrs

[stormtracker]

It's trying, still can't call it yet

[mitchnick]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010218&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Hmm

Definitely interesting. h5 seems too broad but its different than some of the other runs. Better heights in the SE out in front and N/S making a pass at the energy. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gunna be real close. N stream heading down and starting to interact at 192hrs

It's trying...trof not where I wanna see it in sharpness tho

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's trying, still can't call it yet

Light snow trying to enter DC at 207

[stormtracker]

Precip on our doorstep...light stuff tho...low forming off of Mrytle beach

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's trying...trof not where I wanna see it in sharpness tho

That's my pet peeve, too broad. If this was sharper, it could be really a sweat.

[mitchnick]

Radar returns creeping north. I vote yes. Don't know the extent of it tho.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=refcmp&rh=2025010218&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[stormtracker]

Snowing 15z Saturday...still light.  Low off Hateras.  Just not super heavy/impressive attm

[NorthArlington101]

Seems like a glancing blow at 213.

[stormtracker]

Get's close, gets us in the precip, but starts to pull away.  Nothing super amazing from what I can tell.  But def a step in the right direction

[mitchnick]

Need that N stream to sharpen up a little.

[stormtracker]

It's tantalizingly close.   Definitely a storm to watch if we can get that hot mess of an H5 map to consolidate.  There are 579 vorts floating around

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Get's close, gets us in the precip, but starts to pull away.  Nothing super amazing from what I can tell.  But def a step in the right direction

baby steps  h5 wasn't impressive, but almost had something. Usually its the other way around in these parts. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I'll take this look any day!

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's tantalizingly close.   Definitely a storm to watch if we can get that hot mess of an H5 map to consolidate.  There are 579 vorts floating around

i'd take it (remotely - still would be island hopping)

[stormtracker]

2-4 for metro area...more to the south northern neck. Norfolk wins

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's tantalizingly close.   Definitely a storm to watch if we can get that hot mess of an H5 map to consolidate.  There are 579 vorts floating around

So dang close to an absolute monster 

[H2O]

Just now, stormtracker said:

2-4 for metro area...more to the south northern neck. Norfolk wins

That’s still too far north at this point in time

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

So dang close to an absolute monster 

It's impressive we get the surface look the GFS shows with that h5 broadness. I'd have to think if we could get that sharper with the N/S wave phasing in, it would have to go boom.