January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[snowfan]

6z gfs

 

[mitchnick]

6z Icon essentially lost Sunday except for lt snow in central VA as opposed to the 3-5" on 0z. Lol

[mitchnick]

6z Euro is stuck at 39hrs. Anybody past that?

[mitchnick]

EuroAI same on Sunday with between .2-.3" of qpf.

Next week is a moderate hit with more qpf south and east. It actually has a follow-up storm a day or 2 later with very light qpf.

What a variety of solutions. Lol

[RevWarReenactor]

The 6z GFS is a lot of fail. 6 degrees and then a rainer a few days later as it cuts. Reminds me of the Jan 2022 storm where it was Snow 2 inches, then rain and 60. 

[mitchnick]

6z Euro moving again

[mitchnick]

I should have added, 6z Eps kept moving and looked almost identical to 0z, so odds are operational will be close to 0z.

[Mikeymac5306]

Does the model inconsistency have anything to do with the serious cold air in place, or cold air coming?  Just asking.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

10 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The 6z GFS is a lot of fail. 6 degrees and then a rainer a few days later as it cuts. Reminds me of the Jan 2022 storm where it was Snow 2 inches, then rain and 60. 

I wouldn’t get too worked up about the GFS.  It’s been pretty inconsistent.  

[CAPE]

[snowfan]

Tuesday looks pleasant on the euro. Shirtless run after work?

 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

6z gfs

 

979 right over our heads. I'll take the under. What a trash model it has become. I don't even look at it anymore.

[clskinsfan]

21 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The 6z GFS is a lot of fail. 6 degrees and then a rainer a few days later as it cuts. Reminds me of the Jan 2022 storm where it was Snow 2 inches, then rain and 60. 

Not for everyone its not. Inland runners are of course going to rain on you. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

979 right over our heads. I'll take the under. What a trash model it has become. I don't even look at it anymore.

Well, if you look at tracks of low pressure systems over the past say eight years during the winter months, there has been many inland trackers, coastal huggers and our favorite, "the cutter ".

Not sure why this is, blocking, Atlantic ocean SSTs, etc. Have not seen many benchmark storms.

Maybe others could chime in as to the reason. But yes, the GFS is lost totally. Sad.  

 

[CAPE]

6z GEFS for late next week

[Ji]

6z GEFS for late next week

[dailylurker]

35 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Tuesday looks pleasant on the euro. Shirtless run after work?

 

It's like two days below normal before the 40's return. Not impressed lol

[DDweatherman]

I’m focused on the threat at d4.5 to try and get 3-5” Sunday. 

[Etta]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning mid-Atlantic,

Can someone alert me (or post a reply)  if anyone there has been looking at Inauguration Day weather in of course DC.  In particular I'm looking for information regarding this possibly being the worst wintry Inauguration Day since 1961 (Kennedy Inaugural storm).  Seems to me--(my guess only) looks like Noon temps mid 20s with wind, a colder wind chill 10-15 and inch or 2 of snow still left on the ground?  If that were true,  did anyone review all the inauguration days for wintry conditions?  Rain doesn't bother me for my information.  Snow on the ground and temps below freezing are my interest. I see nothing in the headlines from LWX, but it might be buried somewhere--I just haven't taken the time to check.  Thank you,  Walt

The Capital Weather Gang did a whole article on historical Inauguration weather yesterday. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/14/inauguration-day-forecast-dc-weather-cold-wind/

[Terpeast]

Halfway through this winter and it is firmly out of ratter territory, after many of us expected a ratter. I’m happy with the way things ate going. And no we’re not going to get a MECS every other week.

[osfan24]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’m focused on the threat at d4.5 to try and get 3-5” Sunday. 

Same. There doesn't even seem to be any real consensus for Sunday, so thinking about something beyond that seems like chasing ghosts. And the Euro last night looked great for Sunday. Step back this morning, obviously.

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Halfway through this winter and it is firmly out of ratter territory, after many of us expected a ratter. I’m happy with the way things ate going. And no we’re not going to get a MECS every other week.

Nah, we are going to get two per week! 

[mitchnick]

Sunday on 6z Euro AI is wetter. Pure guess based on lousy maps, but 3-4" generally? 

But next week shifted east with a scrapper. Don't worry about next week because AI just as jumpy as other models 5+ days out.

[WhiteoutMD]

Stating the obvious the models have shown every possibility for Saturday through Monday over the last 7 days. Anyone have that wheel we can spin?


.

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Does the model inconsistency have anything to do with the serious cold air in place, or cold air coming?  Just asking.

You cannot expect the models to be even close to a final solution over a week out.  One little change in the near term can have huge changes down the road.  We just like fantasy snow... nothing more than that.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sunday on 6z Euro AI is wetter. Pure guess based on lousy maps, but 3-4" generally? 

But next week shifted east with a scrapper. Don't worry about next week because AI just as jumpy as other models 5+ days out.

Has hits for the next two waves after Thursday fwiw 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Has hits for the next two waves after Thursday fwiw 

From what I'm seeing, they are mainly east and barely scrape the area.

[Allsnow]

Just now, mitchnick said:

From what I'm seeing, they are mainly east and barely scrape the area.

Is this the 06.z run? Weatherbell only has 00z currently 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Is this the 06.z run? Weatherbell only has 00z currently 

Yes. 6z the 2 moved east.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Is this the 06.z run? Weatherbell only has 00z currently 

Here's a link to EuroAI products from free Euro site.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}