January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie at 168hrs. Not so sure it brings it up.

 

 

[bncho]

Okay. This shit is seriously crazy.
Is something historic on the table? Yes. 
I am NOT saying we get a blizzard. I am saying, however, that somebody will be VERY happy.
 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

 

Can we play connect the dots there and say that it would bring indeed bring it up in the next panels?

[Deck Pic]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie at 168hrs. Not so sure it brings it up.

 

it does.  You can tell it is about to attack us

 

[Deck Pic]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Can we play connect the dots there and say that it would bring indeed bring it up in the next panels?

yes. We're about to be rearranged at hour 180

[bncho]

11 hours ago, Ji said:

acceptable solution

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

@Jiis this "satisfactory"????

[Deck Pic]

Sunday is low key kind of upsiding

 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Can we play connect the dots there and say that it would bring indeed bring it up in the next panels?

I think it would bring some precip up. Whether it would bring the full load, idk. Depends if the southern lobe of the 5H vort was continuing to rotate enough counterclockwise. Imho.

[Alfoman]

I mean.... wow. 

At H5 the GFS, GEM, & ICON really aren't that far apart and they have had the energy being held back further out west. The only reason the GFS is not translating into a storm for someone (or a larger storm) is because of the baja bowling ball. It shears the Western shortwave and flatens the flow. Get rid of or mute it some, and I think everyone would have a smile on their face in some capacity. 

Ya'll wanted to go big dog hunting? This could be it.

 

[Deck Pic]

The 2 feet it dumps on Augusta GA give me great confidence in the accuracy of this run

[Alfoman]

Dr. No is rolling, this should be a fun one to watch! 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

The 2 feet it dumps on Augusta GA give me great confidence in the accuracy of this run

Especially when it's only 100 or less away from literally nothing.

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

I mean.... wow. 

At H5 the GFS, GEM, & ICON really aren't that far apart and they have had the energy being held back further out west. The only reason the GFS is not translating into a storm for someone (or a larger storm) is because of the baja bowling ball. It shears the Western shortwave and flatens the flow. Get rid of or mute it some, and I think everyone would have a smile on their face in some capacity. 

Ya'll wanted to go big dog hunting? This could be it.

 

Didn't most models sniff out the big blizzards (2010s, 2016 Jan) one week out?

[southmdwatcher]

2 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Dr. No is rolling, this should be a fun one to watch! 

BUT, Doctor NO sometimes play Doctor YES. This is what we need to be looking for, and STILL keep that popcorn ready.

[stormtracker]

Here we go.  The Doc is running.

[stormtracker]

Ya know, I still don't get enough credit and props for naming the Euro Doctor No.   Can I claim royalties from my own board?

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Here we go.  The Doc is running.

"Now back to PBP with stormtracker."

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ya know, I still don't get enough credit and props for naming the Euro Doctor No.   Can I claim royalties from my own board?

You got a nickel and a dime in snow. That's surely enough.

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ya know, I still don't get enough credit and props for naming the Euro Doctor No.   Can I claim royalties from my own board?

We bestow great crediting to thee

[Deck Pic]

I could see the Carroll county boys get something Thursday afternoon/evening.  I wouldn't count on it.  But hey.  why not

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ya know, I still don't get enough credit and props for naming the Euro Doctor No.   Can I claim royalties from my own board?

And I'm still waiting for my royalties for the avocado 

[Alfoman]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Didn't most models sniff out the big blizzards (2010s, 2016 Jan) one week out?

While this is true, you can't forget that both of those seasons were Ninos and we have a much more active polar jet with the current Nina regime. There is a lot more northern stream energy flying around which can muddle the long range upper level progression. While the general idea is in place here, how far back the Western shortwave is pulled back, strength of ridging, and timing of the phase would translate to a number of different outcomes. Nothing is guaranteed - but the ceiling is high with this setup. 

[Deck Pic]

27 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Sunday is low key kind of upsiding

 

[Weather Will]

Sunday WB 0Z EURO: updated with 24 hour map.

 

[Deck Pic]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Sunday WB 0Z EURO

beautiful....Some of that far NW of the cities is Saturday snow.  There is a lot of CAD.  It's unclear what happens Saturday to me other than lack of moisture

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Sunday WB 0Z EURO

What a change from 18z. I still hate the Euro!

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Good call homie.  Let's hope everybody else catches on

[jon_snow]

Hey guys, what are we looking at here? Is this a 1-2 punch on Sunday and then again Wednesday? I have a flight to Mexico on Thurs, wondering if that's in jeopardy.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

beautiful....Some of that far NW of the cities is Saturday snow.  There is a lot of CAD.  It's unclear what happens Saturday to me other than lack of moisture

Are we still at the stage where we should root against this one to get more of the next one...or are the two no longer correlating?

[Weather Will]

Bad run....good night....WB 0Z EURO compared to 12Z.