January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

People are asking me about this

There's about a 40% chance for snow on that day! 

[Ji]

There's about a 40% chance for snow on that day! 

All they see is that 11 to 13 inches

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

All they see is that 11 to 13 inches

Apple Weather has more snow on the next day as well. 3-6" lol.

Now, who's ready for our 12-20" snowfall?

[WesternFringe]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

All they see is that 11 to 13 inches

Multiply them each by 40% and you get a 100% probability of 5-6”

[mitchnick]

18z Euro at 144hrs vs 12z at 150hrs

[Heisy]

18z Euro at 144hrs vs 12z at 150hrs

Yep it was nice improvement. The northern stream piece plays a role though, that’s at the top of ridge out west at 144, looks a touch weaker, but we’ll see what happens. Have a good feeling about 00z runs


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[Heisy]

18z Euro at 144hrs vs 12z at 150hrs

Give me a euro Ai sneak peek when it comes out


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[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

Give me a euro Ai sneak peek when it comes out


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K. I think they come out at 2am/pm and 8am/pm on the Euro site with maps circa 2000.

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

People are asking me about this

And your reply ?

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yep it was nice improvement. The northern stream piece plays a role though, that’s at the top of ridge out west at 144, looks a touch weaker, but we’ll see what happens. Have a good feeling about 00z runs


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It's not the 00z runs tonight I worry about, it's the 00z runs of 1/23/25. 

[frd]

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1879323899961499735

Mike Thomas @MikeTFox5

Bit of an interesting "operational vs ensemble" battle in the extended guidance from the European here... Operational model shows occasional pulses in the polar blocking (-AO/-NAO) that continues to filter stronger cold eastward. Ensemble suggests things stay weaker here, allowing the southeast ridge to moderate temperatures in the East while the stronger cold dumps into the West. Will be an interesting fight to watch in the days ahead.

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And your reply ?

410-936-1212

[snowfan]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

410-936-1212

Are we sure that’s still the NWS line for weather?

 

[mitchnick]

Since I'm pissed the Euro took a step back on Sunday imby, I'm on a mission.  Here's a comparison on 18z Eps snowfall to 12z Eps snowfall.  This is a total that includes Thursday's flizzard, but totals for that event are virtually the same on both runs. Bottom line, 18z Eps is better for the whole area.

 

 

[frd]

 

So what is Webb saying here ?

Is it that the coldest air never makes it fully to the East and dumps SW like it did in 2021 ?

 

https://x.com/jamesathomas15/status/1879300372474495096

 

My experience with these brutally cold Arctic air masses that get dumped on/near the Rockies is that they usually sink southward more quickly than models lead you to believe in the medium range, and end up getting dumped a bit further west like the eps/geps has shown for days Pouring this kind of cold air into a mid level trough will entice it to dig more quickly & the +PVa created above the low to mid level cold dome (a stable layer), “drags” the trough base further west.

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Are we sure that’s still the NWS line for weather?

 

Ah well he gave it a shot...

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

i think euro does look good for midweek

 

It was about to lay down the hammer. It was significantly more amplified than 12z. EPS trended that way also. I’ll take that trade off to lose 1” Sunday lol. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

So what is Webb saying here ?

Is it that the coldest air never makes it fully to the East and dumps SW like it did in 2021 ?

 

https://x.com/jamesathomas15/status/1879300372474495096

 

My experience with these brutally cold Arctic air masses that get dumped on/near the Rockies is that they usually sink southward more quickly than models lead you to believe in the medium range, and end up getting dumped a bit further west like the eps/geps has shown for days Pouring this kind of cold air into a mid level trough will entice it to dig more quickly & the +PVa created above the low to mid level cold dome (a stable layer), “drags” the trough base further west.

 

 

That would help our snowstorm chances because the boundary wouldn't be sent so far put over the Atlantic it would seem to me.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That would help our snowstorm chances because the boundary wouldn't be sent so far put over the Atlantic it would seem to me.

Yep, that was my thought as well.   Very interesting.  

[Ji]

And your reply ?

Buy a snowblower

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Yep, that was my thought as well.   Very interesting.  

I think that’s what he is saying. There is no way that cold doesn’t make it here given where it’s directed. Maybe not to the level guidance shows. But I think he is hinting the models might be pressing the boundary too far SE which I agree with. 

[WesternFringe]

I think the train tracks (Chill, 2024) have been laid down for this winter and it seems to want to snow at our latitude.  Great cold and longwave pattern and lots of shortwaves to bring us precip (PSU, 2025).

We generally need three chances to score once, but some models have us going 2 for 3 or even 3 for 3 in the next couple weeks for measurable snow!  

Should be fun to track and I think Sunday into Monday (1st shortwave) is a increasingly good chance for a 2-4” event right now imby (Augusta County). 

12z Euro showed a 12” snowstorm in frigid cold on Wednesday night after that and was reloading at the end of the run.

Long range guidance looks good for snow chances possibly until the end of March (PSU, 2025)

Life is good if you like cold and snow.  Best luck to all in the forum! That is all.

[DarkSharkWX]

new AIFS goes up the coast more compared to last run where it was suppressed

[cbmclean]

Big 3 ensembles show the SER firmly in charge at the end of their runs.  Hopefully they are hallucinating a canonical nina response.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Big 3 ensembles show the SER firmly in charge at the end of their runs.  Hopefully they are hallucinating a canonical nino response.

Even if so,  that might be a temporary feature. Yet to be determined.  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Big 3 ensembles show the SER firmly in charge at the end of their runs.  Hopefully they are hallucinating a canonical nino response.

I'm assuming you meant nina response?

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm assuming you meant nina response?

whoops, yes thanks.

[LordBaltimore]

40 minutes ago, frd said:

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1879323899961499735

Mike Thomas @MikeTFox5

Bit of an interesting "operational vs ensemble" battle in the extended guidance from the European here... Operational model shows occasional pulses in the polar blocking (-AO/-NAO) that continues to filter stronger cold eastward. Ensemble suggests things stay weaker here, allowing the southeast ridge to moderate temperatures in the East while the stronger cold dumps into the West. Will be an interesting fight to watch in the days ahead.

 

would suggest that there's a bimodal distribution going on with some members popping the SE ridge over us, but with a primary peak (containing the mode AKA the operational) that keeps us in the cold

[LordBaltimore]

I really, really want the 6 below I was promised by the Canadian

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

new AIFS goes up the coast more compared to last run where it was suppressed

Surprisingly, when the AI starts precip in the area, this is the 850 map. The 0 line is pretty far north and then creeps north from here 0z 1/23. It's tough to tell, but basically just north of SBY westward near the MD/VA border. So that tells me there's no cold pushing down so northward progress of the storm in future runs would seem a better than 50-50 bet imho.