January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Terpeast]

Nice to see the euro take a step back south, and the gfs is mostly a hold if not a tick north. Let’s see if they tighten up the goalposts. If the storm start time is sunday night, it’s 3.5 days away now. That’s usually the time when models start flushing out any major disagreements with each other, barring a last minute trend. 

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

I kinda feel like whoever gets this band tomorrow will be where the max is for Sunday/monday. 

That may well happen, but it’d be nothing more than coincidence. Two completely different events.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

That may well happen, but it’d be nothing more than coincidence. Two completely different events.

Eh boundaries and stuff set up. 

[TSSN+]

6z euro a bit south of 0z. Gfs is now north of euro haha typical. 

[WxUSAF]

So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs.

Ya idk why anyone thought it was going to NY. Always weenie panic over one run. I am glad it shifted south a little, gives me more room for the trend back north again at the end. I would be in that congrats crowd you just mentioned. 

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs.

I dunno. 06z Euro is south and jackpots central MD/DC/NOVA. Less than a half inch precip up my way. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya idk why anyone thought it was going to NY. Always weenie panic over one run. I am glad it shifted south a little, gives me more room for the trend back north again at the end. I would be in that congrats crowd you just mentioned. 

The 70 & n to M/D corridor is a good place to be right now. PSU probably jackpots if you didn't move to Hanover, but given your snow curse, we'll have to look for a new jackpot zone. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs.

Well, I did as you instructed.  

[snowfan]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, I did as you instructed.  

AFTER 12z runs, Randy. If this goes south……..

[stormtracker]

Just now, snowfan said:

AFTER 12z runs, Randy. If this goes south……..

you gotta read the first post in the thread

[DDweatherman]

Just now, snowfan said:

AFTER 12z runs, Randy. If this goes south……..

The thread after the thread rule proved successful last year on at least 2 occasions. Happy to report I was one of the savior thread starters on one of those. 

[snowfan]

Going to be a good weekend in the mountains.

 

[Ji]

@stormtrackerthat s/w is coming out--didnt get stuck in arizona 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

@stormtrackerthat s/w is coming out--didnt get stuck in arizona 

Yeah, but not amounting to much so far  Look good at first.

There's a lot going on at H5

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

@stormtrackerthat s/w is coming out--didnt get stuck in arizona 

lol..look at the H5 maps for hour 234 for a prime example.  So much going on.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lol..look at the H5 maps for hour 234 for a prime example.  So much going on.

we might have to move our new window to Jan 14-15. I think Jan 10-11 is probably toast but we probably wont care that much with a foot on the ground lol

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol..look at the H5 maps for hour 234 for a prime example.  So much going on.

something has to happen. THere is unlimited vorts. With the NAO blocking there should be a backup and allow for consolidation at some point. We are going to have to be patient i guess

[winter_warlock]

Anyone seen any windspeed modeling progs for the storm. Curious if there will be whiteout conditions and blowing and drifting

[NorthArlington101]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

something has to happen. THere is unlimited vorts. With the NAO blocking there should be a backup and allow for consolidation at some point. We are going to have to be patient i guess

GFS is working on our HECS for the 16th it just can’t quite put it together. 

[Mikeymac5306]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is working on our HECS for the 16th it just can’t quite put it together. 

Looks like back to back MECS then HECS lol. 

[WVclimo]

16 day totals from 12Z GFS

[NorthArlington101]

Gosh that GFS run was on fire at the end. Gonna be fun times after a break following Monday’s MECS. 

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gosh that GFS run was on fire at the end. Gonna be fun times after a break following Monday’s MECS. 

Yea, that looked like a Miller A at the end.  All we do now is snow.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, 87storms said:

Yea, that looked like a Miller A at the end.  All we do now is snow.

Hey hey don't spike the football yet *shhhhhhh* and let it unfold 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro is very different around day 8, the energy is not buried way west of baja.  Not sure if it'll matter but its a significant change.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

lol..look at the H5 maps for hour 234 for a prime example.  So much going on.

Re: 234...Slow the southern vort down a little bit and the northern one could drop in behind it. That pulls things a bit north and it all phases with that lobe dropping in from the northeast.

Simple, right?

[aldie 22]

My trip to Maine on 1/14-15 has all the makings

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Re: 234...Slow the southern vort down a little bit and the northern one could drop in behind it. That pulls things a bit north and it all phases with that lobe dropping in from the northeast.

Simple, right?

Of course.  Most of our storms are just simple and straightforward.   

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Of course.  Most of our storms are just simple and straightforward.   

Right?

I'm calling it now...mid-month triple phaser.