January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[WEATHER53]

16 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

That 1050+mb high it keeps showing would challenge records for the highest barometric pressure in the Central Plains.  Hopefully that’s an indication it’s overdone.

January 7, 2015 set the previous records in these cities:

• Grand Island, Nebraska (1056.9 millibars)
• Lincoln, Nebraska (1055.9 millibars)
• Omaha, Nebraska (1055.3 millibars)
• Concordia, Kansas (1055.1 millibars)
• Topeka, Kansas (1054.3 millibars)
• Des Moines, Iowa (1052.15 millibars)
• North Little Rock, Arkansas (1045.07 millibars)

 

 

What happened in the following 3 days?

[mitchnick]

Gfs goes and nails ENE after missing us. Some things on models never change.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs goes and nails ENE after missing us. Some things on models never change.

Got it right where we want it

[IronTy]

39 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Lock it in

Bamwx has their own weather app?

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, southmdwatcher said:

That is exactly what happened in Charles County during PD1(79). That storm is also in the upper strata of Mid Atlantic surprise storms, along with January 25, 2000.

1970s...might as well have been the pleistocene.  PDO was probably a couple SDs positive in those days.  

[NorthArlington101]

18z EURO for Sunday - maybe a tick better for the metros. Pretty consistent. 
 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO for Sunday - maybe a tick better for the metros. Pretty consistent. 
 

Def drier and more se 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Def drier and more se 

yea its going the wrong way

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

yea its going the wrong way

Only one run 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Def drier and more se 

That sucks for areas NW.

Is it over at that hour?

[Ji]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Only one run 

its been trending that way since 6z....so its 2 runs

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

yea its going the wrong way

"unacceptable solution"

[Ji]

i think euro does look good for midweek

 

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea its going the wrong way

idk - I thought it had more potential this run. Most spots minus our extreme NW spots have a relatively minor difference in precip. Guess when its marginal anyway… 

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

What happened in the following 3 days?

Single digit lows in our area, followed by a southern stream low pressure a few days later that brought rain to our area.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

That sucks for areas NW.

Is it over at that hour?

Here’s the 18z Euro Kuchera for just the Sunday pm chance.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s the 18z Euro Kuchera for just tge Sunday pm chance.

Another 1-3 inch deal.  We def take. 

[Ji]

18z euro seems to always come in dry for whaterver reason

[Chris78]

Just now, Ji said:

18z euro seems to always come in dry for whaterver reason

Looks alot like the 18z gfs lol

[Heisy]

18z euro seems to always come in dry for whaterver reason

Except it looks really good for storm 2. Obviously ends at 144, but…more energy left over vs 12z out west




.

[midatlanticweather]

Hope it ramps up as we get closer.. we have a system and a wave.. be happy that it is still there

 

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think euro does look good for midweek

 

@Heisybeat you too it for once. You have way better graphics though smh

[mitchnick]

Another late night. I'm too old for this. No...I'm wayyy too old for this.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Another late night. I'm too old for this. No...I'm wayyy too old for this.

You know you can sleep and the model run will be there in the morning haha 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

You know you can sleep and the model run will be there in the morning haha 

Not if you toss and turn in the bed not knowing what the model showed. Lol

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I can only speculate. They might be worried behind closed doors, but also constrained in what they can do.

Maybe AI can tell them which parts of the GFS physics model needs to be fixed and why

[mitchnick]

Close up for Sunday before the models completely lose it.

[ravensrule]

26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s the 18z Euro Kuchera for just tge Sunday pm chance.

Beautiful. The wiener is right over my house. 

[Ji]

People are asking me about this

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Beautiful. The wiener is right over my house. 

Then it might not be rain falling with the snow.