January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit

Slowly coming back to the original idea and now the ukmet and euro solutions 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit

It'll figure it out and look like the other models, but not until it plays dumb for a bit.

[stormtracker]

GFS roulette.  Vastly different out west vs 12z

[Terpeast]

And here comes another s/w. Four corners at hr 150

[TSSN+]

Gfs is pretty much for entertainment only anymore. Euro/ukemt combo is the way to go. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shortwave digging

There is a hurricane off the coast of California?

[Terpeast]

GFS might suppress this one, but might be overdoing the cold/PV again like it did last time.

[Shad]

yea GFS looks alot different at the surface compared to 12z

[DDweatherman]

Honestly laughable differences on the GFS from 6 hours ago. We need to put another upgrade on the table for this thing. NCEP really should consolidate to a HiRes model/HREF type output that goes to 180 hours and eliminate NAM, SREF, etc. A short range hi-res and that and be done with it. 

[mitchnick]

If it can't get Sunday right, surprised if it looks any better for next week.

[anotherman]

The GFS is so bad.

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

If it can't get Sunday right, surprised if it looks any better for next week.

Dude it’s the gfs 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS kinda decent for the 20th.  Near miss, but better than expected

Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface.

re

[TSSN+]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Honestly laughable differences on the GFS from 6 hours ago. We need to put another upgrade on the table for this thing. NCEP really should consolidate to a HiRes model/HREF type output that goes to 180 hours and eliminate NAM, SREF, etc. A short range hi-res and that and be done with it. 

Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help 

[Ephesians2]

Lock it in

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help 

And I know just how to fix it.

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And I know just how to fix it.

No, bring on the Sledge!

 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help 

AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores

Edit - even blows GFS out of the water in 1-5 day scores, wow

[WVclimo]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

GFS might suppress this one, but might be overdoing the cold/PV again like it did last time.

That 1050+mb high it keeps showing would challenge records for the highest barometric pressure in the Central Plains.  Hopefully that’s an indication it’s overdone.

January 7, 2015 set the previous records in these cities:

• Grand Island, Nebraska (1056.9 millibars)
• Lincoln, Nebraska (1055.9 millibars)
• Omaha, Nebraska (1055.3 millibars)
• Concordia, Kansas (1055.1 millibars)
• Topeka, Kansas (1054.3 millibars)
• Des Moines, Iowa (1052.15 millibars)
• North Little Rock, Arkansas (1045.07 millibars)

 

 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores

Do you have that graphic? Didn't realize they were running Euro AI verification #'s. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores

Edit - even blows GFS out of the water in 1-5 day scores, wow

Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? 

[Terpeast]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Do you have that graphic? Didn't realize they were running Euro AI verification #'s. 

I do, but its through my job. We compare AI models with all other NWP models in the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day ranges. 

[stormtracker]

Broad Trof on the GFS during the Euro BOOM scenario.   Too broad tho

[RedSky]

GFS is trying to suppress the storm south of Jebman

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I do, but its through my job. We compare AI models with all other NWP models in the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day ranges. 

That's awesome. Wish we could see but great to perform that service to assist the general public. You'd think the AI "models" would only get better over time. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? 

I can only speculate. They might be worried behind closed doors, but also constrained in what they can do.

[anotherman]

Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? 

Maybe they don’t care since NOAA might not exist soon.

[Kevin Reilly]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface.

re

That is one tight wound up low off the Southern California coast. 

[mob1]

GFS is honestly not that far off for the second threat. Ends up climbing the coast. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That is one tight wound up low off the Southern California coast. 

Probably an erroneous thing. Might be gone next run