January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[clskinsfan]

EURO and 18z HRRR like some snow showers through the area tonight. Maybe a fresh dusting?

[snowmagnet]

How do the ensembles look for next week? 

[dallen7908]

The control and 3 or 4 other members  also show a MECS around the 23rd - so it's not just resolution driving the large snow amounts.   

[Heisy]

Nbd at this point, but EuroAI pushes 24th off the coast to our south. Sunday still on course. Looks wetter too. Having trouble pulling up Sunday temps so I  can't comment on them yet.

That’s the 12z euro AI? Does it give us any precip from the second event?


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[Heisy]

The control and 3 or 4 other members  also show a MECS around the 23rd - so it's not just resolution driving the large snow amounts.   

I’m late to the party today but I definitely am happy to see the northern stream dive in on that 12z euro run.


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[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That’s the 12z euro AI? Does it give us any precip from the second event?


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No. The 24th event I mentioned was the big one. But I doubt that it would be quick to jump on board due to discrete change(s) making such a big difference. 

[IronTy]

42 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yep!  We had very heavy snow with a foot on the ground at 11 degrees.  In PD1 in Calvert, the first few inches fell with temps in single digits and was still in low teens as the blizzard got cranking.    

That happened way before I lived here...I don't believe it. #FakeNews 

[Shenanagins1091]

Can anyone ELI5 why the first system seems to just fall apart and then sort of magically redevelops slightly as it pulls away, and why the GFS has such a southern slider next week but the Euro doesn't? Just so curious, both look so weird on the models

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

26 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

The control and 3 or 4 other members  also show a MECS around the 23rd - so it's not just resolution driving the large snow amounts.   

Not a lot of support for our storm, but hopefully the EPS comes around, still quite far out.

[WEATHER53]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That happened way before I lived here...I don't believe it. #FakeNews 

Will you tent camp in your front yard if it’s 15 or colder and snowing??  You got the gusto to do it!!!

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Will you tent camp in your front yard if it’s 15 or colder and snowing??  You got the gusto to do it!!!

I'll do one better and make a snow igloo and just sleep in that.  Almost died doing that one night as a kid.  My friend and I were sleeping in an igloo in his backyard and when we were sleeping his mom decided it would be a good idea to cover the entrance with a trash bag to keep us warmer.  I woke up in the night dizzy and hyperventilating, he was unconscious.   Luckily I had the sense to bust out of the thing before it was too late.  

[dallen7908]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

The amplified mid-level pattern leads to a generally confident precipitation  
forecast, with better model agreement compared to yesterday regarding a more  
suppressed storm track in the East. Therefore, the highest chances for  
above-normal precipitation are highlighted across the Gulf Coast and coastal  
Southeast. However, given the cold air in place, there is some concern for  
wintry weather over some of these areas, as evidenced by the deterministic 12z  
GFS and ECMWF.

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'll do one better and make a snow igloo and just sleep in that.  Almost died doing that one night as a kid.  My friend and I were sleeping in an igloo in his backyard and when we were sleeping his mom decided it would be a good idea to cover the entrance with a trash bag to keep us warmer.  I woke up in the night dizzy and hyperventilating, he was unconscious.   Luckily I had the sense to bust out of the thing before it was too late.  

That was real close to real bad 

[pazzo83]

8 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'll do one better and make a snow igloo and just sleep in that.  Almost died doing that one night as a kid.  My friend and I were sleeping in an igloo in his backyard and when we were sleeping his mom decided it would be a good idea to cover the entrance with a trash bag to keep us warmer.  I woke up in the night dizzy and hyperventilating, he was unconscious.   Luckily I had the sense to bust out of the thing before it was too late.  

i'm sure the subsequent conversation between your parents and his mom was nice.

[WEATHER53]

One thing I note  is NWS has been too cold during this.  Today was to be 27 in the Sat forecast.  28 Sunday and Min. .  31 today 

I don’t think temps have been colder even during the heavy snow 

so I’m thinking this 15 degree projection at 1pm during snow will likely be more like 20-23.  Still plenty cold though 

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i'm sure the subsequent conversation between your parents and his mom was nice.

It was the 1980s, times were different.  Survival of the fittest I guess.  I don't think she ever understood fully what she did.  

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

You are 2nd to identify that and 20-25 yesrs ago seems the right length of time to my memory 

Pretty sure around SE Pennsylvania it was like 6-8 degrees and heavy snow.  Meanwhile it was like 2-4f in Trenton NJ with filtered sun through thick high clouds like serious cut off of 50 to 60 miles.  Think we got like 20” fun times. 

[clskinsfan]

18Z ICON looks good for a light event Sunday as well. 

[hstorm]

FWIW, 18z ICON looks to be gearing up for some accumulating snow at end of run (18z Sunday).

[southmdwatcher]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

That happened way before I lived here...I don't believe it. #FakeNews 

That is exactly what happened in Charles County during PD1(79). That storm is also in the upper strata of Mid Atlantic surprise storms, along with January 25, 2000.

[CAPE]

The EPS is hinting at a Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain towards the end of the month. This was showing up on guidance a week or so ago but then it backed off. If the EPO ridge does shift back towards the Aleutians, some help in the NA should mitigate the SER tendency.

 

[87storms]

Some Euro reps have a booth at the AMS conference.  Let me see if I can get some intel.

[Terpeast]

18z GFS trying to brew something off the coast. Light snow to the SW of us Sunday afternoon

[Terpeast]

Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit

[Solution Man]

GFS definitely on to something at 126 snow into Northern Virginia and Southern Maryland, near miss but better 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

18z GFS trying to brew something off the coast. Light snow to the SW of us Sunday afternoon

It's cold air crazy

[TSSN+]

It’s catching up… maybe by 0z it’ll figure it out 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit

Good holiday weekend to be staying outside Cville. La La lock it up 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

18z GFS trying to brew something off the coast. Light snow to the SW of us Sunday afternoon

Shortwave digging

[stormtracker]

GFS kinda decent for the 20th.  Near miss, but better than expected