January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ralph Wiggum]

50 minutes ago, Ji said:

starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow

My thought is even if it turns out bitter cold but dry (which I don't think happens), when things eventually relax someone cashes in big-time. Probably NE as always but if things are displaced way South with the PV and cold push, we can dream and assume the payback event(s) are ticketed for our subs. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Some 

 

That is a HUGE jump from 0z 

[frd]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That is a HUGE jump from 0z 

Yep, double the amount, very significant run to run output.  

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is a HUGE jump from 0z 

it is man.....lets go

[Kevin Reilly]

26 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That gives me pause, I'll believe 17F and heavy snow in SoMD when I see it.  

There is your temp contrast holy smokes!!! Talk about dynamite available.

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And the euro had those exact adjustments... that NS SW is digging down into the Dakotas and it has a bit more SER and BOOM 

Looks the the Scandy ridge also works to nudge our developing NAO which in turn help (in tandem with the PNA/EPO ridge) to drive the s/w souther and into the flow.

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

What is the most likely outcome this far out?

Sunny and 35

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Sunny and 35

Drink your milk Ralphie

 

[WEATHER53]

30 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That gives me pause, I'll believe 17F and heavy snow in SoMD when I see it.  

That’s some prime IronTy tent camping weather!!

[mattie g]

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is awesome. I love being in the bullseye nine days out!

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Drink your milk Ralphie

 

Thanks, but I'll stick to Ovaltine.

[WEATHER53]

51 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Talk about cold smoke. 12 while snowing 

 

I’m not sure when but to my memory the coldest I can remember around me where we got more than 3” was 15F 

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m not sure when but to my memory the coldest I can remember around me where we got more than 3” was 15F 

PD2 had a period of snow after the initial part where it was dumping and about 13-15 degrees if I remember right?

[wxdude64]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thanks, but I'll stick to Ovaltine.

A crummy commercial?

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m not sure when but to my memory the coldest I can remember around me where we got more than 3” was 15F 

Think here Presidents Day 2003?  

[MillvilleWx]

I said this is a good snow pattern 

We should get some snow out of this. Whether it’s “FOLKS” worthy or not is up to some timing/phasing luck and positioning of the thermal gradient in the right spot. GFS was pretty damn close as @psuhoffmanmentioned. ECMWF was on the money. Should be a fun 7-10 days of tracking once again. Winter is still rolling along. We still have February to go too. 

[WEATHER53]

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Think here Presidents Day 2003?  

You are 2nd to identify that and 20-25 yesrs ago seems the right length of time to my memory 

[snowmagnet]

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW, the euro doesn't fully phase, it splits the energy and still pulls that off, that was not even the max solutions...it left a little meat on the bone believe it or not.  

BUT looking further out...look what the op euro just did in the long range also...its starting to show up on more and more guidance.  There is a LOT of uncertainty where we are heading after next week.  

I’ve been waiting for the Euro to bring back the promised blizzard for next week. Hopefully we can hold it. 

[Warm Nose]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Damn it Euro! Thanks. FOLKS for everyone. FUCKS for me!  Stupid Caribbean cruise.  
 

 

ETA: The 28th? I’m in for that!. Pardon my French above. 

Supposed to leave for my cruise on the 31st! Dulles got to do some work ...

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This is awesome. I love being in the bullseye nine days out!

It's a lock dude.  Celebrate.

 

for the next 6 hours

[IronTy]

28 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

That’s some prime IronTy tent camping weather!!

And in my own backyard!  If we got a 20F blizzard there would certainly be more than one type of tent pitched that day. 

[HighStakes]

15 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

PD2 had a period of snow after the initial part where it was dumping and about 13-15 degrees if I remember right?

Almost the entire storm was in the teens. Low teens for a long time. That huge High settled Saturday afternoon after the initial burst of snow pushed south. Temps dropped the entire day. By the time the heavy snow started in the very early a.m. of Sunday temps were in the teens then fell several more degrees. Some northern areas got down to 9 or 10 I believe.

[stormy]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a lock dude.  Celebrate.

 

for the next 6 hours

For about 10 hours.

Cheer up Mattie!  At least its in the 5 day threat period.

[Amped]

The Euro has over a foot in Vicksburg, MS. Would be historic for the Gulf coast.

[mitchnick]

Nbd at this point, but EuroAI pushes 24th off the coast to our south. Sunday still on course. Looks wetter too. Having trouble pulling up Sunday temps so I  can't comment on them yet.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Shad said:

low 20s and sleet.....that would be painful!

 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro shows sleet in the northern neck 

Someone always taints. Busy day today. But the Euro looks amazing. I would be happy just with the light event on Sunday with the fireplace rolling and divisional playoff games on the tube. Solid winter imo. 

[clskinsfan]

Also no one mentioned it but the Euro was lining us up again in the long range at the end of the month imo. 

[BlizzardNole]

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Almost the entire storm was in the teens. Low teens for a long time. That huge High settled Saturday afternoon after the initial burst of snow pushed south. Temps dropped the entire day. By the time the heavy snow started in the very early a.m. of Sunday temps were in the teens then fell several more degrees. Some northern areas got down to 9 or 10 I believe.

Yep!  We had very heavy snow with a foot on the ground at 11 degrees.  In PD1 in Calvert, the first few inches fell with temps in single digits and was still in low teens as the blizzard got cranking.    

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yep!  We had very heavy snow with a foot on the ground at 11 degrees.  In PD1 in Calvert, the first few inches fell with temps in single digits and was still in low teens as the blizzard got cranking.    

If memory serves, BWI bottomed out at 5 degrees on the Sunday morning PD1 hit. Great memory there.

[mikem81]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nbd at this point, but EuroAI pushes 24th off the coast to our south. Sunday still on course. Looks wetter too. Having trouble pulling up Sunday temps so I  can't comment on them yet.

Has anyone been tracking the EURO AI performance versus the regular model?