Shenanagins1091 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Can anyone ELI5 why the first system seems to just fall apart and then sort of magically redevelops slightly as it pulls away, and why the GFS has such a southern slider next week but the Euro doesn't? Just so curious, both look so weird on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 26 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: The control and 3 or 4 other members also show a MECS around the 23rd - so it's not just resolution driving the large snow amounts. Not a lot of support for our storm, but hopefully the EPS comes around, still quite far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: That happened way before I lived here...I don't believe it. #FakeNews Will you tent camp in your front yard if it’s 15 or colder and snowing?? You got the gusto to do it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Will you tent camp in your front yard if it’s 15 or colder and snowing?? You got the gusto to do it!!! I'll do one better and make a snow igloo and just sleep in that. Almost died doing that one night as a kid. My friend and I were sleeping in an igloo in his backyard and when we were sleeping his mom decided it would be a good idea to cover the entrance with a trash bag to keep us warmer. I woke up in the night dizzy and hyperventilating, he was unconscious. Luckily I had the sense to bust out of the thing before it was too late. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html The amplified mid-level pattern leads to a generally confident precipitation forecast, with better model agreement compared to yesterday regarding a more suppressed storm track in the East. Therefore, the highest chances for above-normal precipitation are highlighted across the Gulf Coast and coastal Southeast. However, given the cold air in place, there is some concern for wintry weather over some of these areas, as evidenced by the deterministic 12z GFS and ECMWF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, IronTy said: I'll do one better and make a snow igloo and just sleep in that. Almost died doing that one night as a kid. My friend and I were sleeping in an igloo in his backyard and when we were sleeping his mom decided it would be a good idea to cover the entrance with a trash bag to keep us warmer. I woke up in the night dizzy and hyperventilating, he was unconscious. Luckily I had the sense to bust out of the thing before it was too late. That was real close to real bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, IronTy said: I'll do one better and make a snow igloo and just sleep in that. Almost died doing that one night as a kid. My friend and I were sleeping in an igloo in his backyard and when we were sleeping his mom decided it would be a good idea to cover the entrance with a trash bag to keep us warmer. I woke up in the night dizzy and hyperventilating, he was unconscious. Luckily I had the sense to bust out of the thing before it was too late. i'm sure the subsequent conversation between your parents and his mom was nice. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 One thing I note is NWS has been too cold during this. Today was to be 27 in the Sat forecast. 28 Sunday and Min. . 31 today I don’t think temps have been colder even during the heavy snow so I’m thinking this 15 degree projection at 1pm during snow will likely be more like 20-23. Still plenty cold though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i'm sure the subsequent conversation between your parents and his mom was nice. It was the 1980s, times were different. Survival of the fittest I guess. I don't think she ever understood fully what she did. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: You are 2nd to identify that and 20-25 yesrs ago seems the right length of time to my memory Pretty sure around SE Pennsylvania it was like 6-8 degrees and heavy snow. Meanwhile it was like 2-4f in Trenton NJ with filtered sun through thick high clouds like serious cut off of 50 to 60 miles. Think we got like 20” fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18Z ICON looks good for a light event Sunday as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 FWIW, 18z ICON looks to be gearing up for some accumulating snow at end of run (18z Sunday). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, IronTy said: That happened way before I lived here...I don't believe it. #FakeNews That is exactly what happened in Charles County during PD1(79). That storm is also in the upper strata of Mid Atlantic surprise storms, along with January 25, 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The EPS is hinting at a Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain towards the end of the month. This was showing up on guidance a week or so ago but then it backed off. If the EPO ridge does shift back towards the Aleutians, some help in the NA should mitigate the SER tendency. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Some Euro reps have a booth at the AMS conference. Let me see if I can get some intel. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z GFS trying to brew something off the coast. Light snow to the SW of us Sunday afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS definitely on to something at 126 snow into Northern Virginia and Southern Maryland, near miss but better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 18z GFS trying to brew something off the coast. Light snow to the SW of us Sunday afternoon It's cold air crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It’s catching up… maybe by 0z it’ll figure it out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Terpeast said: Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit Good holiday weekend to be staying outside Cville. La La lock it up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 18z GFS trying to brew something off the coast. Light snow to the SW of us Sunday afternoon Shortwave digging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS kinda decent for the 20th. Near miss, but better than expected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Terpeast said: Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit Slowly coming back to the original idea and now the ukmet and euro solutions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Terpeast said: Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit It'll figure it out and look like the other models, but not until it plays dumb for a bit. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS roulette. Vastly different out west vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 And here comes another s/w. Four corners at hr 150 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gfs is pretty much for entertainment only anymore. Euro/ukemt combo is the way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Shortwave digging There is a hurricane off the coast of California? 1 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS might suppress this one, but might be overdoing the cold/PV again like it did last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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