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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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17 minutes ago, IronTy said:

He was saying that if the JMA is correct that we were going into the warm phases around the end of January and thought it would linger there for some time in February.   Not sure he predicted it was for sure going to happen but moreso *if* the JMA is correct.  He does seem to put a lot of stock in the JMA when it comes to MJO predictions.  

I recall he LOVES the JMA.  It is right once every 7 years. 

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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I would sell ravensrule’s left nut for that euro run to verify literally verbatim. 

I would give it to you happily to sell to the highest bidder. Shit I'll call Sotheby's and we can auction it together. 

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Couple random things I've noticed...

First of all...do you know how close this is to a monster storm?  

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7558000.thumb.png.5c14ba24549729b8dc34a5e2aea9a859.png

Dig that SW near the Minn Canada border a little more, slightly more SER and....BOOM

Then...this is not the majority solution across guidance yet, but this has been showing up on quote a few runs, even the op euro a couple times, enough so that we shouldn't just assume we are headed where the consensus has been indicating...

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7979200.thumb.png.0ae9eb8e04b6ff6cf5eae2f6e5255e16.png

Regardless...across all guidance the pacific jet continues to undercut the ridging in the pacific, and so long as that continues cold we be directed more east than in recent years.  

And the euro had those exact adjustments... that NS SW is digging down into the Dakotas and it has a bit more SER and BOOM 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7547200.thumb.png.1b7dff1176721a59da56e048bf406572.png

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7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Damn it Euro! Thanks. FOLKS for everyone. FUCKS for me!  Stupid Caribbean cruise. :lol: 
 

 

ETA: The 28th? I’m in for that!. Pardon my French above. 

No the storm is on the 23rd.  Psu was just posting the entire run until then

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BTW, the euro doesn't fully phase, it splits the energy and still pulls that off, that was not even the max solutions...it left a little meat on the bone believe it or not.  

BUT looking further out...look what the op euro just did in the long range also...its starting to show up on more and more guidance.  There is a LOT of uncertainty where we are heading after next week.  

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-8044000.thumb.png.95b24420bec34f7bba00653293f5cb40.png

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7 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

I recall he LOVES the JMA.  It is right once every 7 years. 

One time about 5-6 yrs ago the JMA was showing warm and he discounted it, probably because he was wishcasting cold.  Eventually it became clear the JMA had the right idea and winter was basically over.  The meltdown was epic, I literally think he was crying during his Saturday summary video.  Ever since then he's showed it major respect.  

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