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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Couple random things I've noticed...

First of all...do you know how close this is to a monster storm?  

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7558000.thumb.png.5c14ba24549729b8dc34a5e2aea9a859.png

Dig that SW near the Minn Canada border a little more, slightly more SER and....BOOM

Then...this is not the majority solution across guidance yet, but this has been showing up on quote a few runs, even the op euro a couple times, enough so that we shouldn't just assume we are headed where the consensus has been indicating...

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7979200.thumb.png.0ae9eb8e04b6ff6cf5eae2f6e5255e16.png

Regardless...across all guidance the pacific jet continues to undercut the ridging in the pacific, and so long as that continues cold we be directed more east than in recent years.  

There were many comments about five days ago that centered on the complexity of the pattern between Jan 21 st and early Feb. 

Things will not be decided until later. I mentioned analogs, but they mean nothing really in the grand scheme of things presently. 

Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrast next week. 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Is JB calling for a major flip?  He usually loves what the MJO shows him. 

He was saying that if the JMA is correct that we were going into the warm phases around the end of January and thought it would linger there for some time in February.   Not sure he predicted it was for sure going to happen but moreso *if* the JMA is correct.  He does seem to put a lot of stock in the JMA when it comes to MJO predictions.  

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow

I've said for years 2014 was a LOT of luck and that pattern is unlikely to produce that degree of positive snowfall anomaly if repeated.  But I think if we continue long enough we are likely to continue to get enough snow to end up in a decent place.  We have had 2 snows already since the truly cold pattern set in around Jan 5 and it's not like there are no threats at all showing up, just maybe not the MECS/HECS level ones people wanted.  

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4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

SE ridge looks inevitable, but doesn't necessarily have to mean no snow. I actually am pretty optimistic that something breaks in our favor in January when the cold is around or February with the likelihood of being at or AN precip. Going to need really bad luck to miss everything substantial imho.

 

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow

Ummm...

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