stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think you're right, or mostly right, without digging into it. All that bitching about the GFS and it may have led the way. Looks like the next shot is on the 22nd. Close, but no cigar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: First time I’ve seen blue all season up in the cold spot region. If that holds, 7/8 days later out dominant cold would end Depends, if that plot is 100% accurate yes. But we know at 15 days out there are errors and my "educated guess" at the most probable error is that its got way too much SER there. There is a lot of arctic air being discharged directly into the central US there, and so long as there ramains some trough in the pacific under the ridge my guess is that is going to get directed more east than that prog there shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: All that bitching about the GFS and it may have led the way. Looks like the next shot is on the 22nd. Close, but no cigar No faith in that up here. You might fringed. If I'm wrong, trend better start before Saturday imho unless you can get the kind of change we saw in 12 hours on today's Gem, but across all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, mitchnick said: No faith in that up here. You might fringed. If I'm wrong, trend better start before Saturday imho unless you can get the kind of change we saw in 12 hours on today's Gem, but across all guidance. It could trend either way, but there is no blocking so there could be more movement either direction with that wave than there was with most of the recent threats that had a track mostly locked in by a stationary blocked flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: No faith in that up here. You might fringed. If I'm wrong, trend better start before Saturday imho unless you can get the kind of change we saw in 12 hours on today's Gem, but across all guidance. Euro doesn't even have a storm at all still so hard to buy into anything yet beyond the Sunday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Ukie with 2-4" on Sunday north and west of I95 and cities. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Euro doesn't even have a storm at all still so hard to buy into anything yet beyond the Sunday deal. It's on the Eps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Depends, if that plot is 100% accurate yes. But we know at 15 days out there are errors and my "educated guess" at the most probable error is that its got way too much SER there. There is a lot of arctic air being discharged directly into the central US there, and so long as there ramains some trough in the pacific under the ridge my guess is that is going to get directed more east than that prog there shows. I’d be delighted if it stays cold. Absent just 3/4 days it’s been a good cold run last 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: I’d be delighted if it stays cold. Absent just 3/4 days it’s been a good cold run last 3 weeks Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately. 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately. you are well below normal snow......you just have had longer snowcover than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately. Yes and my twin 5 year old grandchildren got their first snow they can remember and play in!!! You kinda got short end on the big one but we gotta a lot left as cold is still full on 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Ji said: you are well below normal snow......you just have had longer snowcover than normal Snowfall is really fluky, especially at our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Yes and my twin 5 year old grandchildren got their first snow they can remember and play in!!! You kinda got short end on the big one but we gotta a lot left as cold is still full on Glad for that, my kids have enjoyed the snow as well. I can make up ground later in the season, plus I had that crazy lucky good 2021 season so it events out in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Glad for that, my kids have enjoyed the snow as well. I can make up ground later in the season, plus I had that crazy lucky good 2021 season so it events out in the long run. How much did you get in 21? Agree that was some luck. Up in our neck of the woods, last year wasn't really that bad (snow totals wise - but only a couple weeks of real winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 24 minutes ago, IronTy said: Uh oh, JB would be exonerated. Is JB calling for a major flip? He usually loves what the MJO shows him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Couple random things I've noticed... First of all...do you know how close this is to a monster storm? Dig that SW near the Minn Canada border a little more, slightly more SER and....BOOM Then...this is not the majority solution across guidance yet, but this has been showing up on quote a few runs, even the op euro a couple times, enough so that we shouldn't just assume we are headed where the consensus has been indicating... Regardless...across all guidance the pacific jet continues to undercut the ridging in the pacific, and so long as that continues cold we be directed more east than in recent years. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 At this point last year pac puke started showing up on the medium range, this time it's at the very end on long range and it's very likely to get can kicked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, blizzardmeiser said: Is JB calling for a major flip? He usually loves what the MJO shows him. I don't know what he is calling for but the MJO is conflicted right now. The GFS and GGEM take it on a grand tour of the warm phases but the Euro and CFS kill the wave after phase 3 and have conflicting signals after that, which balance out to a COD plot on the diagrams lol. The GFS is trending weaker the last 2 days also...towards the idea of not having some god awful MC MJO traverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don't know what he is calling for but the MJO is conflicted right now. The GFS and GGEM take it on a grand tour of the warm phases but the Euro and CFS kill the wave after phase 3 and have conflicting signals after that, which balance out to a COD plot on the diagrams lol. The GFS is trending weaker the last 2 days also...towards the idea of not having some god awful MC MJO traverse. Very helpful! When will we feel confident it isn't heading into 4 and beyond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, blizzardmeiser said: Very helpful! When will we feel confident it isn't heading into 4 and beyond... I think in about 5 days we will have a much better idea of where the MJO is heading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: How much did you get in 21? Agree that was some luck. Up in our neck of the woods, last year wasn't really that bad (snow totals wise - but only a couple weeks of real winter). Just over 50". Not only did I get into the southern edge of the big totals on those 2 HECS storms that hit just north of our area...but I jacked a few times on smaller storms and marginal events...I was like the epicenter of the positive snowfall anomalies for the whole east coast that winter...just got super lucky. It happens. This year has been the inverse of that so far. Well even worse just north of me, at least I had that nice little 4" snow in November and 4" last week isn't nothing. I am content with the winter so far. Sure I'd love to jack every freaking time but that isn't how it goes, except maybe in Ji's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Some big differences in the 12z Gfs, Ukie, and Gem at 168hrs keeping "some" hope alive soon thereafter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Some big differences in the 12z Gfs, Ukie, and Gem at 168hrs keeping "some" hope alive soon thereafter. Have you noticed there is a minority but not insignificant camp of guidance that now tanks the AO/NAO again around day 10! 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think in about 5 days we will have a much better idea of where the MJO is heading Cold is great for snow or to keep snowcover. If it is going to be dry and cold for weeks then not so much.... Hopefully this pattern delivers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Have you noticed there is a minority but not insignificant camp of guidance that now tanks the AO/NAO again around day 10! Frankly, I'm not sure what to hope for after the cold/dry stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Couple random things I've noticed... First of all...do you know how close this is to a monster storm? Dig that SW near the Minn Canada border a little more, slightly more SER and....BOOM Then...this is not the majority solution across guidance yet, but this has been showing up on quote a few runs, even the op euro a couple times, enough so that we shouldn't just assume we are headed where the consensus has been indicating... Regardless...across all guidance the pacific jet continues to undercut the ridging in the pacific, and so long as that continues cold we be directed more east than in recent years. There were many comments about five days ago that centered on the complexity of the pattern between Jan 21 st and early Feb. Things will not be decided until later. I mentioned analogs, but they mean nothing really in the grand scheme of things presently. Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrast next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Frankly, I'm not sure what to hope for after the cold/dry stretch. I would take my chances on a -EPO/AO/NAO in February! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I would take my chances on a -EPO/AO/NAO in February! starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 CFS: wall-to-wall cold through President’s Day https://x.com/chazzzwx/status/1879199881199489370 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 22 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Is JB calling for a major flip? He usually loves what the MJO shows him. He was saying that if the JMA is correct that we were going into the warm phases around the end of January and thought it would linger there for some time in February. Not sure he predicted it was for sure going to happen but moreso *if* the JMA is correct. He does seem to put a lot of stock in the JMA when it comes to MJO predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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