January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[HighStakes]

Impressive cold following the storm all next week.

[Ji]

WB 0Z EURO 10 pm  Monday.

Can you post surface temps for Monday morning?

[pazzo83]

seems like the big players are coming into rough agreement at this point?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

seems like the big players are coming into rough agreement at this point?

Yup. The Euro and GFS are strikingly similar.

[Alfoman]

9 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Impressive cold following the storm all next week.

Did not see DC getting above freezing from Sunday until the end of the run...that's an impressive 10 days of winter

[MillvilleWx]

One of the things I’ve been alluding to on these runs and outputs are dual maxima showing up in the precip/snowfall panels. You’re starting to see that come to fruition in the more hi-res guidance and even to a degree in the Ukmet with a northern max and “southern” max within the sub. The 7H maxima aligns over the north with solid convergence pattern towards the M/D (I-70 to MD line) and the 85H FGEN situated between I-70 to I-66. If this kind of synoptic scale evolution holds, this would lead to pretty good banding structures with rates capable of 1-1.5”/hr in the strongest zones of lift. That is a beefy 850-700mb moisture advection regime being advertised with the disturbance out west taking on a more neutral to slightly negative tilt at 5H. This was a good set of runs for snow lovers north of Fredericksburg. Feel for those in Southwestern VA and Southern VA. This is a nasty CAD wedge progged. Ice storm hell signature for I-81 corridor south of I-66. 

[MillvilleWx]

16 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Impressive cold following the storm all next week.

There will be some incredible staying power for the snow and ice that falls with this one. The Arctic will be paying a visit regardless of final outcome. I hope people are ready for this one. 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Can you post surface temps for Monday morning?

 

[Ji]

288 hour the sw finally comes out

[Ji]

 

Thanks. It’s warmer than before but also more precip

[Ji]

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Is this a signal for something big Jan 15-17ish?

[Ji]

Is this a signal for something big Jan 15-17ish?

The desert sw will come out eventually lol. Euro does have a Jan 14 snow for us but that’s an awfully long time to wait for snow

[IronTy]

Couldn't sleep and was resisting reaching for my phone.  Glad I finally caved and looked.  

[Deck Pic]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

No idea. 3 or 4 since 2016?

You might have 5-6?, but I think 3 is probably right. 

3/21/18 - maybe?  I think close

1/12-13/19 - almost def

2/1-2/21 - maybe?  I think close

1/3/22 - almost def

You may have gotten close in one of the one's last year?

[Deck Pic]

Euro ENS Mean looks tasty

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Couldn't sleep and was resisting reaching for my phone.  Glad I finally caved and looked.  

Ha me too.  Looks like the night crew did just fine.  Now I am too juiced up to go back to sleep. 

[Solution Man]

We did well

[CAPE]

The advertised look for mid month looks prime for a major east coast snowstorm. The 0z GEFS 13-16th window is active.

[LeesburgWx]

Just woke up. Was worried to look at the euro but man, it looks good and the bleeding north appears to have stopped. Let’s get DC to hold jackpot by 12z today and I think we will be good to go.

[CAPE]

Latest Natty blend

[snowmagnet]

Today is my 32nd wedding anniversary and reading the overnight pbp's is getting me off to a good start. I've been giving him updates on the snow the past couple of days, but he has to go over to Ji's FB page and tell's me it's probably going to snow.  LOL.  32 years...

Thank you all for the brilliant analysis of the overnight runs.  I'm 5 hours ahead here in London at the moment so I have had to catch up this morning. The 0z run of the Euro seems like a good storm for the majority of this forum.  Even those on the coast will get in on the action.  I'm feeling pretty confident after so many consistent runs of the Euro.  We fly back on Saturday, so I look forward to an extra long winter break next week.  

[Weather Will]

Nice 6Z ICON run...

Image

[TSSN+]

Gfs is north. 

[stormtracker]

GFS moved a smidge north, but snowfall amounts are pretty close to 0z.  6-10

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS moved a smidge north, but snowfall amounts are pretty close to 0z.  6-10

 

[TSSN+]

I kinda feel like whoever gets this band tomorrow will be where the max is for Sunday/monday. 

[LeesburgWx]

GFS still looks good. Mostly noise back and forth right now with the models

[BristowWx]

29 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

that look screams long duration west to east with the usual drying through the mountains.  would rather that then hoping coastal bands reach us or coming up from the south that hit the wall of confluence north of EZF.  

[BristowWx]

19 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

GFS still looks good. Mostly noise back and forth right now with the models

eh...mostly agree but not sure we are in the noise zone yet.  bad memories I suppose but I feel like Saturday is noise zone territory.