blizzardmeiser Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 14 minutes ago, anotherman said: Margarbage!!!! This guy is always hyping snowmaggedon. Still waiting for him to get one right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: Was about go Jaws and then the next few frames it just gets shredded. It's perfect! Hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 15 minutes ago, anotherman said: Margarbage!!!! Never heard of him. I was focused on the euro snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Never heard of him. I was focused on the euro snowfall map.He is probably the biggest weenie wishcaster out there. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Unlike the last storm, there is nothing to prevent it from trending NW as psu alluded to the other day. hardly any blocking over greenland, s/w energy hanging back west. That PV is pressing south, but one tiny shift the other way, the track is coming north. And you want a proverbial reshuffle? Careful now… you might get a SE ridge with that. SE ridge looks inevitable, but doesn't necessarily have to mean no snow. I actually am pretty optimistic that something breaks in our favor in January when the cold is around or February with the likelihood of being at or AN precip. Going to need really bad luck to miss everything substantial imho. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 He is probably the biggest weenie wishcaster out there. With 77,000 followers…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 49 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looks like EuroAI I just worked up my nerve to look at (lol) actually looks to bring a northern stream lobe down and pulls up some precip from the system next week. That's a new twist. Interestingly, the southern storm is rain and not snow. Hmmm Stay off the AI crack son. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 29 minutes ago, anotherman said: Margarbage!!!! Buckle up! It’s gonna get wild!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, anotherman said: He is probably the biggest weenie wishcaster out there. He should apply to BammWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: Buckle up! It’s gonna get wild!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Stay off the AI crack son. Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Never heard of him. I was focused on the euro snowfall map. back in the day we used to have the Weenie of the year award. He would be in the hall of fame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 48 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: So we got gfs a lil too far south and euro a lil too far NW for the cities.. im thinkin middle if the road lol Does the GFS SE bias still exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday? Wow it's nice for Sunday. Solid 2-5 event for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8. This checks out... Atmospheric memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8. It depends... I don't think as a blanket rule we just want something to our south anymore, and that was a typical bias across almost all guidance 20 years ago. Especially the GFS. Now it's much more nuanced. In a blocking regime, frankly, storms have been more likely to trend south recently. But each pattern is different and each synoptic situation is different. In the coming pattern it is a lot more likely that things could trend north significantly if the models are overdoing the amplitude of the TPV or wrong in the location of features at range. Of course if a NS wave were to come along right over the top it could squash it, like that storm in March 2014 that was supposed to hit PA then came south because of a wave over the top. But even in a progressive wave pattern it feels recently like the errors are more split between north and south...they are just larger in a non blocking regime since there is less locking in the track of the waves. I will say this though...in a progressive wave pattern more amplified trends mean north...and I like being on the side of getting to root for a bigger more amplified storm. When a system is north of you, you're kinda left rooting for the storm to be weaker and more pathetic, thats no fun lol. 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yall are funny. The gfs is barely a miss to the SE. the ggem is barely a miss to the NW. meanwhile the solution shifts around every run. And we’re worrying about what? Obviously the final solution isn’t going to be known for a while. Thursday Night at earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The models are less consistent in their errors, but that is a good thing. It's because they are better. So there is no one obvious automatic error anymore. The errors are based on smaller mistakes they may be making specific to each synoptic setup. But we know at day 7 or 10 there is likely to be an error. More so in some patterns than others. So we have to ask "what is the most likely error being made here" by each specific model in each specific situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 55 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday? Yup. 12z will show rain and 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 37 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8. It's not bad..and we have time. It's just annoying at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 hours ago, Deck Pic said: yes...we want the storm to develop after the front passes imo. Euro is trying. Maybe it ends up being another 1-2". Like most of our events That would be every event here. 4.88” for the season that’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: That would be every event here. 4.88” for the season that’s it. That last .08" makes all the difference 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: The main player over the next 10 days honestly looks like the drought. I'm glad I got what I got when I got it. The drought here never left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That last .08" makes all the difference Hey... you know some people on here go out to the .0001 place when measuring snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday? That wave strikes me as a 3-6" type thing wherever it ends up. Maybe slightly more in the jack zone. Similar to a lot of those boundary waves that popped up at the last minute in 2014 and 2015. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 53 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8. Looking at incoming pattern that’s coming north pretty confident not really caring about what the models show until 0z Thursday. I think Euro too extreme with NW push comes southeast and gfs comes NW to meet in the middle and hit for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looking way out, I continue to see signs the pattern is not progressing to the typical Nina Feb hellscape I expected. Actually...if the 3 features I marked here are correct...that trough will end up more southeast than it is on guidance right now. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That wave strikes me as a 3-6" type thing wherever it ends up. Maybe slightly more in the jack zone. Similar to a lot of those boundary waves that popped up at the last minute in 2014 and 2015. Though it's early, this thing has favored our area once there was a consensus of a wave east of the mts (recall the Gfs and maybe others initially had a storm on the front heading for the Lakes.) I "think" it will favor us in the end, but with how much remains the question. But if it doesn't favor us, any place but central VA and SBY. Reminders of the debacle winter of 72/73 cannot be shaken. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Unlike the last storm, there is nothing to prevent it from trending NW as psu alluded to the other day. hardly any blocking over greenland, s/w energy hanging back west. That PV is pressing south, but one tiny shift the other way, the track is coming north. And you want a proverbial reshuffle? Careful now… you might get a SE ridge with that. Haha.. I drafted and then deleted almost the exact post this morning. . I wont be so shy next time. I also think the position of trough is important also WRT suppression vs Coastal Track. As depicted above, one would think that a coastal low is definitely favored over a southern/ suppressed track. However, if you go forward 2 days, the center of the trough moves east by a couple hundred miles and the isobars are more WSW - ENE oriented over our area. I think that is why dont see a storm on the Euro for the 22nd 00z and a southern track on the GFS .. but as you said, the overall synoptic pattern does not indicate suppression and there are chances the second wave comes north as we move closer to the event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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