January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[ravensrule]

35 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’ve seen this script before, you’re wasting your time. Don’t even bother trying to get in the middle of it. We all want snow anyways, that’s what I come here for. Certain posters have been the same for years. 

Excuse me, all i talk is science and snow. 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

How has that performed this winter 5-6 days out if you know? Thanks 

No idea....but even the blind squirrel sometimes finds its nut!

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Spire....

I think i pay for that channel on cable, it's definitely not G rated. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

No idea....but even the blind squirrel sometimes finds its nut!

Hey i find mine every morning. 

[Scraff]

WTF is the Spire? Is that the CRAS brought back to life!?  Anyway, I’ll be sailing in the Caribbean next week. So if everyone gets MECS’y without me, have fun, but don’t you dare get HECSy or BECSy until after 1/25. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

WTF is the Spire? Is that the CRAS brought back to life!?  Anyway, I’ll be sailing in the Caribbean next week. So if everyone gets MECS’y without me, have fun, but don’t you dare get HECSy or BECSy until after 1/25. 

Not waiting for you

[LeesburgWx]

I see the Cras talked about a lot lately. But how about the DGEX? That’s the real OG. Spire might become that if it’s right as depicted

[LordBaltimore]

Spire model is a scam like all other models developed by private weather analytics companies. They don't post anything about its internals online and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it's literally just IFS/GFS output that they downscale/postprocess with ml. They even use redflag buzzwords like "deep learning" on their site to let you know they're selling dung

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I see the Cras talked about a lot lately. But how about the DGEX? That’s the real OG. Spire might become that if it’s right as depicted

There was also an ETAxx that bombed out everything massively 

[pazzo83]

5 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

Spire model is a scam like all other models developed by private weather analytics companies. They don't post anything about its internals online and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it's literally just IFS/GFS output that they downscale/postprocess with ml. They even use redflag buzzwords like "deep learning" on their site to let you know they're selling dung

lol that is almost certainly what they are doing.

[midatlanticweather]

I have not heard @Ji pointing to the JMA either. I am ready for alignment of all the backup models to support a MECS 

 

[midatlanticweather]

In all seriousness, is a minor event even possible Thursday late? I have heard whispers at one point. Just curious. 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

21 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Hey i find mine every morning. 

LOL that comment you responded to was like a direct feed for a slam-dunk, classic @ravensrule response by the one and only!!!  

[87storms]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Oh my. 

anyway, how’s next week looking? 

I was trying to figure that out while on an ams break lol.

In other news, Cantore is one of us. He was attending the “winter weather in a warming world” presentation this morning. Also briefly met Jason Samenow, who sat down next to me and my coworker (saw the name tag). I recognized the name from cwg.

Tons of presentations and posters here. Heard the Bmore one was also pretty big.

 

[stormtracker]

41 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Spire....

Can you post the 18z Sprite when it comes out?  Tryna see something. 

[MegaMike]

I've never heard of Spire Weather before, but based on their website, it looks like it's another AI modeling system (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

It doesn't take much to run an AI model... Especially since the source code for panguweather, fourcastnet, and graphcast are available online for free: https://github.com/ecmwf-lab/ai-models

My recommendation: If they don't evaluate or provide modeling specifications, don't use it.

[stormtracker]

Full on war going on in here.

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I see the Cras talked about a lot lately. But how about the DGEX? That’s the real OG. Spire might become that if it’s right as depicted

The DGEX had a 959 bomb on every run. 

[CAPE]

Spire lol. What's the Panasonic showing?

[DDweatherman]

36 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Excuse me, all i talk is science and snow. 

Good one 

[Ji]

Can you post the 18z Sprite when it comes out?  Tryna see something. 

Is the para 18z Sprite Zero out yet?

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Spire lol. What's the Panasonic showing?

Radio Shack model has 3-5” forum-wide!

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Full on war going on in here.

I was only tryin to have a little border skirmish for fun and it escalated full nuclear fast 

But us obsessive stalker zeolites be like that  

[mitchnick]

Gfs another hit

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The DGEX had a 959 bomb on every run. 

Always go with the DGEX/CRAS combo...best scenario every time!

[mitchnick]

[CAPE]

HH GFS be good

[psuhoffman]

I spire with my little eye 

[Ji]

Snow breaks out on inaugural/milk eve

[mitchnick]

Going in the right direction too. Gets going earlier this run.