January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ralph Wiggum]

When is the next SSWE to reshuffle the deck? Looks like we need less cold? 

[WEATHER53]

45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm to the point where I feel the only way the pattern fully snaps and breaks down is the MJO races through 4-5-6 but its hard for me to believe this wave can continue at this amplitude that long

Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb

I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb

I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month 

You've been right, no one is trying to take that way from you lol 

[mattie g]

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb

I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month 

Your humility is praiseworthy.

[winter_warlock]

Sterling  watching for potential  lol. 

Fwiw...

The trend for colder temperatures continues into early next week
as longwave troughing envelopes much of the CONUS. Waves of low
pressure will have to be monitored for potential wintry precip
during this time given the cold air in place and a baroclinic
zone lurking nearby.

[mitchnick]

Fyi, today's weeklies just out maintain BN a lot the first 2 weeks, then keep us normal until the week of 2/17-24. That is a major can-kick from the last several days that had AN getting here starting the week of 2/3.

Fwiw, AN precip the week starting 1/27 and then normal thru 2/24.

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi, today's weeklies just out maintain BN a lot the first 2 weeks, then keep us normal until the week of 2/17-24. That is a major can-kick from the last several days that had AN getting here starting the week of 2/3.

Fwiw, AN precip the week starting 1/27 and then normal thru 2/24.

Love the sound of that.  Below  normal!!!

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Not all pac ridge regimes are the same. I keep looking for signs we’re going into a pull latitude central pac ridge centered near Hawaii (that’s what we don’t want) and it keeps getting pushed back. Again today signs of the pac jet extending under the north pac ridging continues to show up.

So long as that happens it pushes ridging into western N America enough to direct the cold further east and avoid the bad pna troughs.  It’s a broader wavelength pattern v the one where storms dig and cut off out west.

I think we end up with a hybrid pattern where there is a North Pacific WPO EPO ridge but without the connection to the tropics of the recent uber -PDO years and that has a better downstream impact on our pattern  

 

  

I agree. Makes sense with a la nina and current Pattern mixup. 

[WEATHER53]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You've been right, no one is trying to take that way from you lol 

Did not say they were

i know it galls you otherwise  you would Not have to jump in so quick 

Think  sometimes Before you respond in an instigative  manner .  The adult is me, not thee 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi, today's weeklies just out maintain BN a lot the first 2 weeks, then keep us normal until the week of 2/17-24. That is a major can-kick from the last several days that had AN getting here starting the week of 2/3.

Fwiw, AN precip the week starting 1/27 and then normal thru 2/24.

ive never seen someone be some positive and negative in the same day every day. Never change

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Did not say they were

i know it galls you otherwise  you would Not have to jump in so quick 

Think  sometimes Before you respond in an instigative  manner .  The adult is me, not thee 

You must be a lot of fun at parties 

[WEATHER53]

36 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Your humility is praiseworthy.

Considering the amount of shit I take it’s warranted .  Feel free to take credit if you have something to predict that comes out true and stays  that way 

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You must be a lot of fun at parties 

Obsessive zealot borderline stalker 

[mappy]

Oh my. 

anyway, how’s next week looking? 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive never seen someone be some positive and negative in the same day every day. Never change

What you call negative, I  call honest assessment. 

But don't confuse negative with disgust. Lol

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Oh my. 

anyway, how’s next week looking? 

Cold!!!

[Weather Will]

This sure covers next Monday...

M.L.King Day

A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb

I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month 

anyone got the current barometric pressure reading in Ulaanbaatar?  I need to check something

[pazzo83]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You must be a lot of fun at parties 

Howard was probably over-served at lunch again.

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, mappy said:

Oh my. 

anyway, how’s next week looking? 

Celebrating MECS-LK day with Mongolian cold and lots of vitriol

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Did not say they were

i know it galls you otherwise  you would Not have to jump in so quick 

Think  sometimes Before you respond in an instigative  manner .  The adult is me, not thee 

Sir with all due respect...why do you come in here so on-edge all the time? Like nobody will even say anything to you, and you'll come in and say something aggressive. I mean no harm or offense, I'm just trying to understand.

[bncho]

39 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Did not say they were

i know it galls you otherwise  you would Not have to jump in so quick 

Think  sometimes Before you respond in an instigative  manner .  The adult is me, not thee 

This ain't philosphy. Maybe join here? https://thephilosophyforum.com/

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sir with all due respect...why do you come in here so on-edge all the time? Like nobody will even say anything to you, and you'll come in and say something aggressive. I mean no harm or offense, I'm just trying to understand.

I’ve seen this script before, you’re wasting your time. Don’t even bother trying to get in the middle of it. We all want snow anyways, that’s what I come here for. Certain posters have been the same for years. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi, today's weeklies just out maintain BN a lot the first 2 weeks, then keep us normal until the week of 2/17-24. That is a major can-kick from the last several days that had AN getting here starting the week of 2/3.

Fwiw, AN precip the week starting 1/27 and then normal thru 2/24.

What good are these weeklies? They've been so wrong lately.

[mattie g]

52 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Considering the amount of shit I take it’s warranted .  Feel free to take credit if you have something to predict that comes out true and stays  that way 

Maybe, but there are better and more humble ways to beat your chest and claim victory.

Me? I don't know shit, so if I get something right it's by pure luck. That said...if my late-January triple phaser call were to work out, I'd be crowing from the rooftops.

[mitchnick]

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

What good are these weeklies? They've been so wrong lately.

Not wrt to temps. They have been decent. Precip, snow, and any other forecasts I haven't followed closely so I can't comment.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Spire....

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Spire....

Do you think this has a legit chance to tranSPIRE?

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do you think this has a legit chance to tranSPIRE?

I think everything is on the table for next week....

Mostly sunny, cold with a 30% of an MECS.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Spire....

How has that performed this winter 5-6 days out if you know? Thanks