January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[GATECH]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Then like 50 two days later lol

Water main breaks and potholes will be epic!

[Shad]

Only out to hour 126 on pivitol......guessing there was no SE storm on the Euro around the 21-22nd?

[cbmclean]

Still looks like the GEFS and EPS are predicting the "Pacific Ridge" regime in the extended.  I'm less sure of this now than I was before, though.  Could this be the inverse of previous El Nino years (think 2018-19, and 2023-24) where the extended guidance endlessly spat out a canonical Nino response?

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

A 1pm temp of 11 here.   We take.  

Seems...overdone.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya low snow and cold af, meh. Let’s get more snow and mid temps lol

Some conversations in other forums here, and online as well, mentioning the pattern between Jan 20 th and Jan  31 st favors the deep South. Analog storms during this time period in the past, based on the major features had heavy snow in VA., NC and SC. And, very little snow in ILG, Philly, Baltimore, DC., NYC and Boston. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Shad said:

Only out to hour 126 on pivitol......guessing there was no SE storm on the Euro around the 21-22nd?

Nope 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Some conversations in other forums here, and online as well, mentioning the pattern between Jan 20 th and Jan  31 st favors the deep South. Analog storms during this time period in the past, based on the major features had heavy snow in VA., NC and SC. And, very little snow in ILG, Philly, Baltimore, DC., NYC and Boston. 

I think this is true for the Jan 21-24 period. Not so much after, if the pattern looks anything like progs of course. 

[dailylurker]

I remember about 12 days ago our current "cold pattern" was showing temps in south Florida in the mid 20's and daytime highs here in the mid teens. None of that came close to happening. IMHO the models are way overdoing the cold and the suppression looks.

[pazzo83]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I remember about 12 days ago our current "cold pattern" was showing temps in south Florida in the mid 20's and daytime highs here in the mid teens. None of that came close to happening. IMHO the models are way overdoing the cold and the suppression looks.

yep - happens every time.  We aren't seeing midday temps around 10F here.  DCA can barely get below 20F at night lol (hasn't yet so far this year).

[dailylurker]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

yep - happens every time.  We aren't seeing midday temps around 10F here.  DCA can barely get below 20F at night lol (hasn't yet so far this year).

I was susposed to below freezing for like 10 days. I think i stayed 31-32 once or twice. Most days torched to 35 and drip drip. These ridiculous cold looks are nonsense. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

I'm thinking the most likely outcome this season is more than last year but still below climo. It'll be colder than last year too.

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Some conversations in other forums here, and online as well, mentioning the pattern between Jan 20 th and Jan  31 st favors the deep South. Analog storms during this time period in the past, based on the major features had heavy snow in VA., NC and SC. And, very little snow in ILG, Philly, Baltimore, DC., NYC and Boston. 

Man Mitch gets around 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Still looks like the GEFS and EPS are predicting the "Pacific Ridge" regime in the extended.  I'm less sure of this now than I was before, though.  Could this be the inverse of previous El Nino years (think 2018-19, and 2023-24) where the extended guidance endlessly spat out a canonical Nino response?

Not all pac ridge regimes are the same. I keep looking for signs we’re going into a pull latitude central pac ridge centered near Hawaii (that’s what we don’t want) and it keeps getting pushed back. Again today signs of the pac jet extending under the north pac ridging continues to show up.

So long as that happens it pushes ridging into western N America enough to direct the cold further east and avoid the bad pna troughs.  It’s a broader wavelength pattern v the one where storms dig and cut off out west.

I think we end up with a hybrid pattern where there is a North Pacific WPO EPO ridge but without the connection to the tropics of the recent uber -PDO years and that has a better downstream impact on our pattern  

 

  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I'm thinking the most likely outcome this season is more than last year but still below climo. It'll be colder than last year too.

There's no such thing as "most likely" when we don't even know how the pattern is gonna shake out yet. Adn remember: Many in this forum are already halfway to climo or more, lol

[psuhoffman]

That wave around the 20th which is 2-4" across most guidance right now is the type of thing that can easily juice up to 3-6" come gametime.  If we get a 3-6" snow followed by an arctic blast...well that is not some winter fail imo.  I don't necessarily see a MECS level threat until perhaps after the next cold shot starts to relax but I also don't see some suddent end to our snow chances coming either.  There are also some opportunities to score a little 1-2" event somewhere from a discreet NS wave that wouldn't be showing up yet.  This doesn't look as bad as some seem to be making it.  Why and how did I become the optimist here?  

[frd]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Man Mitch gets around 

Everyone wants hopium. 

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That wave around the 20th which is 2-4" across most guidance right now is the type of thing that can easily juice up to 3-6" come gametime.  If we get a 3-6" snow followed by an arctic blast...well that is not some winter fail imo.  I don't necessarily see a MECS level threat until perhaps after the next cold shot starts to relax but I also don't see some suddent end to our snow chances coming either.  There are also some opportunities to score a little 1-2" event somewhere from a discreet NS wave that wouldn't be showing up yet.  This doesn't look as bad as some seem to be making it.  Why and how did I become the optimist here?  

i'm guessing my climo is roughly equivalent to that of Bethesda or McLean (maybe 18"), and I'd be pretty close to that if we got 4 or 5" on Sunday/Monday.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Many in this forum are already halfway to climo or more, lol

Well that was also the case in recent seasons and they still stopped short. Reminder that DC was less than an inch away from reaching climo in 21-22, it stopped short because one of the final snow events had too much warm air at higher altitudes and it was mostly graupel.

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not all pac ridge regimes are the same. I keep looking for signs we’re going into a pull latitude central pac ridge centered near Hawaii (that’s what we don’t want) and it keeps getting pushed back. Again today signs of the pac jet extending under the north pac ridging continues to show up.

So long as that happens it pushes ridging into western N America enough to direct the cold further east and avoid the bad pna troughs.  It’s a broader wavelength pattern v the one where storms dig and cut off out west.

I think we end up with a hybrid pattern where there is a North Pacific WPO EPO ridge but without the connection to the tropics of the recent uber -PDO years and that has a better downstream impact on our pattern  

 

  

I'm to the point where I feel the only way the pattern fully snaps and breaks down is the MJO races through 4-5-6 but its hard for me to believe this wave can continue at this amplitude that long

[TSSN+]

Going to need to mid to late week to get a better idea. Still anyone’s game. 
 

 

[HighStakes]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wave around the 20th which is 2-4" across most guidance right now is the type of thing that can easily juice up to 3-6" come gametime.  If we get a 3-6" snow followed by an arctic blast...well that is not some winter fail imo.  I don't necessarily see a MECS level threat until perhaps after the next cold shot starts to relax but I also don't see some suddent end to our snow chances coming either.  There are also some opportunities to score a little 1-2" event somewhere from a discreet NS wave that wouldn't be showing up yet.  This doesn't look as bad as some seem to be making it.  Why and how did I become the optimist here?  

This wave has some similarities to the 1/21/2014 event. That wave looked rather weak and kept getting better and stronger right up until game time. Also looked too warm a few days out and forecasts kept trending colder. Ended up with 8-9 inches of cold powder here. Less to the south but I think everyone got a 3-7 event. Temps fells through out the storm as it was warmish the couple days before leading into it. 

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Seems...overdone.

Models never overdo cold.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like Mitchnick gets his avocado suppression depression patterm after the 20th geez.

[mitchnick]

Fast flow and dryness, the preceeding probably the cause of the latter, is our nemesis. Nothing we can do about it. 

I haven't bothered to find out why, but the Gefs keep piling up snow past 180hrs. 3" imby. Seems crazy.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like Mitchnick gets his avocado suppression depression patterm after the 20th geez.

Thanks for the shout out...

Now get outta' here kid, ya' bother me! :p 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

This wave has some similarities to the 1/21/2014 event. That wave looked rather weak and kept getting better and stronger right up until game time. Also looked too warm a few days out and forecasts kept trending colder. Ended up with 8-9 inches of cold powder here. Less to the south but I think everyone got a 3-7 event. Temps fells through out the storm as it was warmish the couple days before leading into it. 

Great catch, I was just thinking about that and looking at it, there are similarities in the pattern also.  

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Well that was also the case in recent seasons and they still stopped short. Reminder that DC was less than an inch away from reaching climo in 21-22, it stopped short because one of the final snow events had too much warm air at higher altitudes and it was mostly graupel.

These are two completely different seasons with very different patterns, though.

[Interstate]

I called the 20th last week and I am sticking with it. 

[SnowenOutThere]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wave around the 20th which is 2-4" across most guidance right now is the type of thing that can easily juice up to 3-6" come gametime.  If we get a 3-6" snow followed by an arctic blast...well that is not some winter fail imo.  I don't necessarily see a MECS level threat until perhaps after the next cold shot starts to relax but I also don't see some suddent end to our snow chances coming either.  There are also some opportunities to score a little 1-2" event somewhere from a discreet NS wave that wouldn't be showing up yet.  This doesn't look as bad as some seem to be making it.  Why and how did I become the optimist here?  

So do you think the guide has moved away from the overrunning pattern recently or is that just the ops overdoing the cold at range?

[mitchnick]

Euro AI 12z still has Sunday event and it looks even drier than 6z but you'll need the better maps in an hour or so to confirm. I seriously doubt it's more however. No other snow on the run short of a very little bit from a clipper.