January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, Gefs latest Extended puts a weak MJO wave into Phase 8 by February 20th. That's an excellent phase for us in a Niña with a trough in the east.  Coincidentally, it matches approximately the period Psu highlighted for a return to cold per analogs.

See how simple this is?   Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

Umm this would be February 17th, 2010, we picked up 23" 

[Kevin Reilly]

52 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Snow breaks out by 6z Sunday (Feb fricking 2nd)  If this was THIS sunday instead of fucking the next Sunday, it'd be a pre FOLKS about to happen

So we just need to be patient for a "FOLKS".  I am taking a page out of Ralph's handbook. 

[CAPE]

A bit of banter but it's a slow period. I was bored at work today so I read through the 1/6 storm obs thread- I needed sleep that night so from about 11pm to 5am I was out. Slept through the beginning of the storm. Anyway reliving it a bit I wanted to look at H5 again. Damn that was a really impressive h5 look, and pretty characteristic of some of our major snow events historically. The vortex part of the block was extreme and displaced southward from ideal, which limited potential somewhat, esp for the northern parts of our region.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit of banter but it's a slow period. I was bored at work today so I read through the 1/6 storm obs thread- I needed sleep that night so from about 11pm to 5am I was out. Slept through the beginning of the storm. Anyway reliving it a bit I wanted to look at H5 again. Damn that was a really impressive h5 look, and pretty characteristic of some of our major snow events historically. The vortex part of the block was extreme and displaced southward from ideal, which limited potential somewhat, esp for the northern parts of our region.

Had that vortex been at 50/50 it could have been a hecs. That was our chance at a 96 type non Nino fluke.  But it’s not bad luck imo, reality is it takes a lot of good luck to get everything 100% perfect which is what it takes to get a hecs in a non Nino 

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Had that vortex been at 50/50 it could have been a hecs. That was our chance at a 96 type non Nino fluke.  But it’s not bad luck imo, reality is it takes a lot of good luck to get everything 100% perfect which is what it takes to get a hecs in a non Nino 

Yeah, 100% this.
Our 1/6 storm was a 1 in 5-10 chance.
1996 was a 1 in 50 chance.
It's hard to get that lucky.

[mitchnick]

Funny how the 18z Gefs snowfall is heaviest in central VA. I'll take that as a good sign at this range.

 

[snowmagnet]

26 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yeah, 100% this.
Our 1/6 storm was a 1 in 5-10 chance.
1996 was a 1 in 50 chance.
It's hard to get that lucky.

Kind of like the 150 year snowfall in the South... 

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Funny how the 18z Gefs snowfall is heaviest in central VA. I'll take that as a good sign at this range.

 

Scattershot but there are some decent hits among the ens members for our region in the first week of Feb. There are 2-3 members that heavily contribute to the Central VA jack(mostly 1 lol)

[mitchnick]

Little disappointed in @Heisy he didn't post this 5H anomaly at 144hrs off the 18z Eps. That's quite the trough for an ensemble mean in SE Canada. 

 

[Heisy]

Little disappointed in [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] he didn't post this 5H anomaly at 144hrs off the 18z Eps. That's quite the trough for an ensemble mean in SE Canada. 
 

I’m always checking, it’sjust with these cutoff lows it’s so hard to time them right. 18z Ai have anything noteworthy?


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[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m always checking, it’sjust with these cutoff lows it’s so hard to time them right. 18z Ai have anything noteworthy?


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There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry.

See, you went ahead and broke the site. That's why we can't have nice things Mitch.

[Heisy]

There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry.

It’s rolling on wxbell now


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[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

See, you went ahead and broke the site. That's why we can't have nice things Mitch.

Because you've been a bad boy and don't deserve them. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

It’s rolling on wxbell now


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Let us know how bad we lose. Lol 

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry.

[Terpeast]

 

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I’m not sure our friends in SoCal are going to like this. 

[Heisy]

Let us know how bad we lose. Lol 

It’s going to basically be the same as 12z


I didn’t have time to see what changed on the 12z run, but looked over it now…

If you look at the older runs, the bowling ball broke East a LOT faster, now it’s meandering under the ridge. Confluence moves off by the time it finally comes E, ugh


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[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

It’s going to basically be the same as 12z


I didn’t have time to see what changed on the 12z run, but looked over it now…

If you look at the older runs, the bowling ball broke East a LOT faster, now it’s meandering under the ridge. Confluence moves off by the time it finally comes E, ugh


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At this range, the AI is at best another ensemble member. No big deal.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Funny how the 18z Gefs snowfall is heaviest in central VA. I'll take that as a good sign at this range.

 

Close to double digit snowfall numbers total  here in SW Chesterfield Co. Been a great winter. 

[87storms]

He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good.

Winter has shown its hand. I will not be mountain biking or playing a whole lot of basketball outside and that’s ok. My body needs a break anyway…and snow is awesome.

There’ll be breaks and pattern relaxation…we’re not Montana…but yea, we’re 2 months deep now and the base state has been “winter”.

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Winter has shown its hand. I will not be mountain biking or playing a whole lot of basketball outside and that’s ok. My body needs a break anyway…and snow is awesome.

There’ll be breaks and pattern relaxation…we’re not Montana…but yea, we’re 2 months deep now and the base state has been “winter”.

Might even make a run at 3 consecutive weeks with snow cover. Day 17 now

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Might even make a run at 3 consecutive weeks with snow cover. Day 17 now

Just think of how long it's been since that happened (2014?)

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just think of how long it's been since that happened (2014?)

I wasn’t here for 2014 (got back in late 2015 for almost a year till I went overseas for a while), so the last time for me here was 2004 I think. Not a lot of snowfall, but it was cold and icy. Kept the pack for a long time.

[stormtracker]

Hmm, GFS seems like it's moving things out quicker so far