CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Pretty good outcome at this range. Just one op run. With no help in the NA we gonna need some good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's not cutting because it's weaker by leaving energy behind was my attempted point. Yep. we need some vorticity to eject eastward underneath, but if the mutha load comes out, pretty risky with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ha.. Can hope.. Better than nothing showing up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Snow breaks out by 6z Sunday (Feb fricking 2nd) If this was THIS sunday instead of fucking the next Sunday, it'd be a pre FOLKS about to happen Groundhog Day! We'll have to re-live it again and again and again until we get it right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw, Gefs latest Extended puts a weak MJO wave into Phase 8 by February 20th. That's an excellent phase for us in a Niña with a trough in the east. Coincidentally, it matches approximately the period Psu highlighted for a return to cold per analogs. See how simple this is? Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml Umm this would be February 17th, 2010, we picked up 23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 52 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Snow breaks out by 6z Sunday (Feb fricking 2nd) If this was THIS sunday instead of fucking the next Sunday, it'd be a pre FOLKS about to happen So we just need to be patient for a "FOLKS". I am taking a page out of Ralph's handbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A bit of banter but it's a slow period. I was bored at work today so I read through the 1/6 storm obs thread- I needed sleep that night so from about 11pm to 5am I was out. Slept through the beginning of the storm. Anyway reliving it a bit I wanted to look at H5 again. Damn that was a really impressive h5 look, and pretty characteristic of some of our major snow events historically. The vortex part of the block was extreme and displaced southward from ideal, which limited potential somewhat, esp for the northern parts of our region. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: A bit of banter but it's a slow period. I was bored at work today so I read through the 1/6 storm obs thread- I needed sleep that night so from about 11pm to 5am I was out. Slept through the beginning of the storm. Anyway reliving it a bit I wanted to look at H5 again. Damn that was a really impressive h5 look, and pretty characteristic of some of our major snow events historically. The vortex part of the block was extreme and displaced southward from ideal, which limited potential somewhat, esp for the northern parts of our region. Had that vortex been at 50/50 it could have been a hecs. That was our chance at a 96 type non Nino fluke. But it’s not bad luck imo, reality is it takes a lot of good luck to get everything 100% perfect which is what it takes to get a hecs in a non Nino 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Had that vortex been at 50/50 it could have been a hecs. That was our chance at a 96 type non Nino fluke. But it’s not bad luck imo, reality is it takes a lot of good luck to get everything 100% perfect which is what it takes to get a hecs in a non Nino Yeah, 100% this. Our 1/6 storm was a 1 in 5-10 chance. 1996 was a 1 in 50 chance. It's hard to get that lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Funny how the 18z Gefs snowfall is heaviest in central VA. I'll take that as a good sign at this range. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 26 minutes ago, bncho said: Yeah, 100% this. Our 1/6 storm was a 1 in 5-10 chance. 1996 was a 1 in 50 chance. It's hard to get that lucky. Kind of like the 150 year snowfall in the South... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Funny how the 18z Gefs snowfall is heaviest in central VA. I'll take that as a good sign at this range. Scattershot but there are some decent hits among the ens members for our region in the first week of Feb. There are 2-3 members that heavily contribute to the Central VA jack(mostly 1 lol) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Little disappointed in @Heisy he didn't post this 5H anomaly at 144hrs off the 18z Eps. That's quite the trough for an ensemble mean in SE Canada. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Little disappointed in [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] he didn't post this 5H anomaly at 144hrs off the 18z Eps. That's quite the trough for an ensemble mean in SE Canada. I’m always checking, it’sjust with these cutoff lows it’s so hard to time them right. 18z Ai have anything noteworthy? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’m always checking, it’sjust with these cutoff lows it’s so hard to time them right. 18z Ai have anything noteworthy? . There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry. See, you went ahead and broke the site. That's why we can't have nice things Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry.It’s rolling on wxbell now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: See, you went ahead and broke the site. That's why we can't have nice things Mitch. Because you've been a bad boy and don't deserve them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Heisy said: It’s rolling on wxbell now . Let us know how bad we lose. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I’m not sure our friends in SoCal are going to like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Let us know how bad we lose. Lol It’s going to basically be the same as 12zI didn’t have time to see what changed on the 12z run, but looked over it now…If you look at the older runs, the bowling ball broke East a LOT faster, now it’s meandering under the ridge. Confluence moves off by the time it finally comes E, ugh . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Heisy said: It’s going to basically be the same as 12z I didn’t have time to see what changed on the 12z run, but looked over it now… If you look at the older runs, the bowling ball broke East a LOT faster, now it’s meandering under the ridge. Confluence moves off by the time it finally comes E, ugh . At this range, the AI is at best another ensemble member. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Funny how the 18z Gefs snowfall is heaviest in central VA. I'll take that as a good sign at this range. Close to double digit snowfall numbers total here in SW Chesterfield Co. Been a great winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good.Winter has shown its hand. I will not be mountain biking or playing a whole lot of basketball outside and that’s ok. My body needs a break anyway…and snow is awesome.There’ll be breaks and pattern relaxation…we’re not Montana…but yea, we’re 2 months deep now and the base state has been “winter”. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 36 minutes ago, 87storms said: Winter has shown its hand. I will not be mountain biking or playing a whole lot of basketball outside and that’s ok. My body needs a break anyway…and snow is awesome. There’ll be breaks and pattern relaxation…we’re not Montana…but yea, we’re 2 months deep now and the base state has been “winter”. Might even make a run at 3 consecutive weeks with snow cover. Day 17 now 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Might even make a run at 3 consecutive weeks with snow cover. Day 17 now Just think of how long it's been since that happened (2014?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Just think of how long it's been since that happened (2014?) I wasn’t here for 2014 (got back in late 2015 for almost a year till I went overseas for a while), so the last time for me here was 2004 I think. Not a lot of snowfall, but it was cold and icy. Kept the pack for a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Hmm, GFS seems like it's moving things out quicker so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Doesn't seem to be making much difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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