January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

Gfs came close at the end, but that reminds me of 93/94. Just need it south by another 75-100 miles.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs came close at the end, but that reminds me of 93/94. Just need it south by another 75-100 miles.

I'm cool with some 4" solid ice solution that glaciates my snowpack to help it last maybe an extra week once the warm up hits lol  

[NorthArlington101]

EPS and GEFS are pretty much out on next Monday… both have a modest signal for next Thursday/Friday. 

[mitchnick]

Snow on the beach at OBX. Other cams further down the page.

https://www.surfchex.com/cams/surf-city-pier-north/

[mitchnick]

Ukie gone wild on the northern stream day 7.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie gone wild on the northern stream day 7.

GFS same-ish, no?

[Heisy]

12z euro vs 6z euro Ai… pretty close. Looks like some energy got left behind on the 12z. Timing of that northern stream wave isn’t good on the OP




.

[brooklynwx99]

notice the trend for a stronger Pacific jet as we move forward in time, which has been common this year... this helps push the Aleutian ridging closer to AK, allowing the trough in the Rockies to push east a bit more. would be nice to see this keep going

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

notice the trend for a stronger Pacific jet as we move forward in time, which has been common this year... this helps push the Aleutian ridging closer to AK, allowing the trough in the Rockies to push east a bit more. would be nice to see this keep going

I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. 

We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here.

Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time. 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS same-ish, no?

Ukie stronger

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the lowlands have a good chance to score more snow this year...if not before things warm in Feb in March.  But while it's definitely ended up a little colder/snowier than I anticipated it's still following some of the colder cold neutral or weak enso analogs like 2009 that were identified pre-season.  They were "cold" but not particularly snowy.  There has been a bit of that...and if 2009 actually is the best analog as I've proposed we actually have got a little lucker this year than we did that year where we had 2 months of cold but barely got any snow until March.   Because we've been so freaking warm so often lately we forget how common it is to get cold but not snowy periods...or at least how common that used to be.  Because our biggest issue has been its just too warm lately...some have started to think "just give me the cold and I'll take my chances" but that does not always work out.  

If 2009 is the analog and next year we get 2010, I think we will deal lol.

[SnowenOutThere]

12z Euro seemed pretty close to the 6z Euro Ai solution but a little further north which hurt us

[psuhoffman]

I took the 8 best analogs in the last 30 years...threw out the high and low outliers and came up with an over under for snow from Feb 1 to the end of winter for various locations.

IAD: 8"

DCA: 4"

BWI: 5"

Manchester MD: 17" 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

12z Euro seemed pretty close to the 6z Euro Ai solution but a little further north which hurt us

Might be setting up something pretty cool way out in fantasy range though

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

12z Euro seemed pretty close to the 6z Euro Ai solution but a little further north which hurt us

it phases with the NS out in the midwest...that wont work no matter what the exact location of the features is. 

[psuhoffman]

With how much cold there will be around I think our chances of scoring in the likely Feb pattern is higher than normal given that H5 look...cold will press behind each wave giving us a window of opportunity.  

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it phases with the NS out in the midwest...that wont work no matter what the exact location of the features is. 

Even if that phase it verbatim is close a cad ice storm event, and has another opportunity set up behind it. I do agree that if we want an all snow/frozen outcome that the NS phase wont work but I think a minor event could still happen depending on CAD strength. 

[cbmclean]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. 

We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here.

Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time. 

I'm glad that is helping the cause this year, but it doesn't bode well for chances of getting a nice clean miller A in future Ninos if that Pac Jet stays permanently jacked up.  I'm hoping it collapses...just wait til the end of this winter first .

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm glad that is helping the cause this year, but it doesn't bode well for chances of getting a nice clean miller A in future Ninos if that Pac Jet stays permanently jacked up.  I'm hoping it collapses...just wait til the end of this winter first .

Let see what the impact is when the pdo is positive. 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI....worth keeping an eye on.....

This type of set up suggests blocking like it a lot. 

[mitchnick]

AI wayyyy west and warm. Worse than any operational. 

[mitchnick]

There's a follow up storm that might work. Driving so can't say for sure.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

There's a follow up storm that might work. Driving so can't say for sure.

LOL please don't crash looking at the 300 hour Euro AI.

If we had a HECS inside of 100 hours it might be worth it.

[DarkSharkWX]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. 

We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here.

Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time. 

is this not bc of the ghost of the super nino last year? iirc 2016-17 also had some poleward overextensions

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's a follow up storm that might work. Driving so can't say for sure.

Nah, follow up is rain too.

Not so sure I buy the warm scenarios yet.

[Heisy]

it phases with the NS out in the midwest...that wont work no matter what the exact location of the features is. 

Correct, the difference was around the time period the euro left energy behind and timed the northern stream with the little wave that was able to escape. Haven’t seen the Ai but I assume it did something like the CMC


.

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, Gefs latest Extended puts a weak MJO wave into Phase 8 by February 20th. That's an excellent phase for us in a Niña with a trough in the east.  Coincidentally, it matches approximately the period Psu highlighted for a return to cold per analogs.

See how simple this is?   Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

is this not bc of the ghost of the super nino last year? iirc 2016-17 also had some poleward overextensions

Please explain in more detail what this means. 

[Amped]

The best I've ever seen the Gfs and euro agree day 10.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Let see what the impact is when the pdo is positive. 

Would you expect the PDO to impact the jet?  I thought that was an independent problem due to the Hadley cell expansion.