January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[bncho]

22 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. 

I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. 

Sure, that may be true.
But was our January pattern really a fail? Sure, maybe for you, but most of Maryland and DC scored. Were we supposed to expect two 6-12" miller As with five additions 1-3 and 2-4" events?

[Heisy]

Thought likewise. 

6z out?


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[mitchnick]

@Heisy and those interested

If 850 temps cooperated, it looks like a full blown Blizzard on the AI for the 31st-1st. The u/l is so strong it kills 850's for part of the storm, but surface look marginal but OK. Obviously, can't take temps verbatim and the crummy mapscmay be overdoing the 850 warming. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

6z out?


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Crazy mind think alike. Lol

[mitchnick]

6z AI 

Precip. Move forward from here.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501220600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600

850's move forward from here

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501220600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600

[Heisy]

6z AI 
Precip. Move forward from here.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501220600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600
850's move forward from here
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501220600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600

Holy smokes


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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

That would be a paste bomb on Euro AI.  Interesting, would love to get something crazy wound up like that and just see what happens.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That would be a paste bomb on Euro AI.  Interesting, would love to get something crazy wound up like that and just see what happens.

Paste bomb verbatim, yes. Let’s see how the temps trend if the wave holds as it gets closer. 

[osfan24]

Euro from last night looked pretty interesting. Not seeing much of a warm-up through the whole run with some shots at snow.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI....worth keeping an eye on.....

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Euro from last night looked pretty interesting. Not seeing much of a warm-up through the whole run with some shots at snow.

Yeah it had a pretty nice look at h5 and the surface for the very end of the month, close to the same window as the AI storm.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Paste bomb verbatim, yes. Let’s see how the temps trend if the wave holds as it gets closer. 

There is a LOT of mixing along 95 but goes to snow for the crazy deform band with 3-6" at the end...before that is really iffy.  Sitting right on the 850 0 line the whole time is not usually where you want to be because unless the entire column is exactly isothermal there is going to be a slightly warmer layer somewhere or in between panels. 

Verbatim this run looks like a 6-12" storm for places like Winchester, MRG, My area...4-8" NW of the fall line out to a Purvellville to Westminster line with mixing and 3-6" along 95 with a lot of mixing until that deform band cools the column...  Is it too soon to lock down the exact location of a deform? 

[psuhoffman]

BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing.  This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb.  

Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that.  I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time.  

[frd]

22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI....worth keeping an eye on.....

 

Not a great look for the lowlands once again, and still not at climo here despite the frigid airmasses, to a degree wasted potential like usual. 

Its been a lower Delaware type of winter and a SE US winter so far from a climo point of view, maybe March redeems for areas that have missed the biggest snowfalls. 

At least the snow has stuck around, which is a huge win for winter weather lovers !   

Looking at trends on the distant AO it appears we are getting some signals that the - AO and blocking return later in the winter. 

 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing.  This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb.  

Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that.  I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time.  

 

Sounds like you are aligning your thoughts with HM.  You guys are on the same page, makes sense if we keep the cold on our side, then we can score in early March. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing.  This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb.  

Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that.  I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time.  

Makes sense that there would be a grand finale at the end of the cold pattern as it has happened often over the years. Now all we can do is hope that we're in the bullseye if it does happen.

[pazzo83]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

FWIW, HM on Bluesky

“This is the kind of winter in Philadelphia where it hits 70°F around 2/20 and then the largest snowfall of the season hits March 5-10.“

lol - Denver, CO weather.

[Heisy]

Can’t hate where this was potentially headed. Need the northern stream to beat out the ULl to provide extra cold shot




.

[Heisy]

GFS looks nice at day 8-10, that’s a decent confluence look.


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[osfan24]

Shred factory.

[Heisy]

CMC looks very close to the Ai but no confluence




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[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GFS looks nice at day 8-10, that’s a decent confluence look.


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Snow to ice 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

@Heisy and those interested

If 850 temps cooperated, it looks like a full blown Blizzard on the AI for the 31st-1st. The u/l is so strong it kills 850's for part of the storm, but surface look marginal but OK. Obviously, can't take temps verbatim and the crummy mapscmay be overdoing the 850 warming. 

AI did well once and flopped once but at least it sticks to its design and doesn’t go from 8” to 1” every 6 hours.  Let’s see how it fares this time 

 

[87storms]

Looks like a slow tracking period the next few days with some tracking ramping up this weekend for that late week potential.

[stormtracker]

Looking good

On 12/31/2024 at 6:49 PM, RevWarReenactor said:

People laughed when I said every super cold pattern in the last 10 years hasn't produced anything. 

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. 

I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. 

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You need to know your climo. There are 8 pretty good analogs in the last 30 years to this season and 7/8 produced good snow for a part of this forum in March!   Forget the analogs just in the last 20 years 2005, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 all produced snow around here in March. 
 

Many missed YOU because you chose to live in a Fckn snow hole that has a low chance of snow even in a good pattern. On top of that you don’t count snow that doesn’t stick to the road lol. 
 

But seriously why does someone who needs snow like you seem too live where you do?  You know if you moved 15 miles NW you’d average 10” more a year. 25 miles and you’d double your average!  Stop complaining about the realities of your climo and do something. If you need snow and want snow that sticks on the road move somewhere that’s normal because it’s a huge anomaly where you live. 

Really wouldn't pay him much mind.  He's been around a while and whines a ton and is often wrong.   He's an Eeyore to the max.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, frd said:

 

Not a great look for the lowlands once again, and still not at climo here despite the frigid airmasses, to a degree wasted potential like usual. 

Its been a lower Delaware type of winter and a SE US winter so far from a climo point of view, maybe March redeems for areas that have missed the biggest snowfalls. 

At least the snow has stuck around, which is a huge win for winter weather lovers !   

Looking at trends on the distant AO it appears we are getting some signals that the - AO and blocking return later in the winter. 

 

I think the lowlands have a good chance to score more snow this year...if not before things warm in Feb in March.  But while it's definitely ended up a little colder/snowier than I anticipated it's still following some of the colder cold neutral or weak enso analogs like 2009 that were identified pre-season.  They were "cold" but not particularly snowy.  There has been a bit of that...and if 2009 actually is the best analog as I've proposed we actually have got a little lucker this year than we did that year where we had 2 months of cold but barely got any snow until March.   Because we've been so freaking warm so often lately we forget how common it is to get cold but not snowy periods...or at least how common that used to be.  Because our biggest issue has been its just too warm lately...some have started to think "just give me the cold and I'll take my chances" but that does not always work out.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the lowlands have a good chance to score more snow this year...if not before things warm in Feb in March.  But while it's definitely ended up a little colder/snowier than I anticipated it's still following some of the colder cold neutral or weak enso analogs like 2009 that were identified pre-season.  They were "cold" but not particularly snowy.  There has been a bit of that...and if 2009 actually is the best analog as I've proposed we actually have got a little lucker this year than we did that year where we had 2 months of cold but barely got any snow until March.   Because we've been so freaking warm so often lately we forget how common it is to get cold but not snowy periods...or at least how common that used to be.  Because our biggest issue has been its just too warm lately...some have started to think "just give me the cold and I'll take my chances" but that does not always work out.  

I think we have a chance too before the window shuts after around the first of Feb.  RIGHT NOW, seems to me, we may have to compromise and mix some ice in there too.   I mean, as long as I know ahead of times that all snow is out of the question, I'm cool with ice now that I don't have to drive in it.  

[mitchnick]

Nice setup at the end of the Gfs. May or may not hit, but it can often work.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

AI did well once and flopped once but at least it sticks to its design and doesn’t go from 8” to 1” every 6 hours.  Let’s see how it fares this time 

 

I actually don't think it "flopped" this last time...it nailed the general location of that wave from over a week out!  It always had the max qpf a little NW of 95.  In the end it was too liberal on the SE side of the precip band by about 50 miles but the AI is low resolution and I warned it would smooth out details and wouldn't see something like a sharp gradient.  That's where the high res models should have helped but they failed us lol.  THe AI should be used to give us a general idea of a storm and it did that...it failed at the details its not really meant for.  Just my opinion.