CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 For early next week- probably not a high probability at this point but there is still enough uncertainty to keep an eye on it. The wave timing and degree of interaction between energy ejecting eastward from the southwest, and NS energy riding overtop the ridge and dropping southward is probably not going to be exactly correct as currently modeled. On current runs(GFS here) the NS vorticity digs down right overtop the southern energy and it shears out and then gets kicked off the coast with only weak surface development/precip in the mid south and a bit of snow in KY and TN on the northern edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 12:29 PM, Heisy said: Yeah HM gave a subtle March hint on our discord last night ha. 6z euro at 144 has a better northern stream push, same with EPS. It’s just a waiting game to see how the models handle the southern stream cutoff. . Expand Thought likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:01 PM, RevWarReenactor said: I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. Expand You need to know your climo. There are 8 pretty good analogs in the last 30 years to this season and 7/8 produced good snow for a part of this forum in March! Forget the analogs just in the last 20 years 2005, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 all produced snow around here in March. Many missed YOU because you chose to live in a Fckn snow hole that has a low chance of snow even in a good pattern. On top of that you don’t count snow that doesn’t stick to the road lol. But seriously why does someone who needs snow like you seem too live where you do? You know if you moved 15 miles NW you’d average 10” more a year. 25 miles and you’d double your average! Stop complaining about the realities of your climo and do something. If you need snow and want snow that sticks on the road move somewhere that’s normal because it’s a huge anomaly where you live. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:01 PM, RevWarReenactor said: I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. Expand Sure, that may be true. But was our January pattern really a fail? Sure, maybe for you, but most of Maryland and DC scored. Were we supposed to expect two 6-12" miller As with five additions 1-3 and 2-4" events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 12:50 PM, mitchnick said: Thought likewise. 6z out?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 @Heisy and those interested If 850 temps cooperated, it looks like a full blown Blizzard on the AI for the 31st-1st. The u/l is so strong it kills 850's for part of the storm, but surface look marginal but OK. Obviously, can't take temps verbatim and the crummy mapscmay be overdoing the 850 warming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:28 PM, Heisy said: 6z out? . Expand Crazy mind think alike. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6z AI Precip. Move forward from here. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501220600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600 850's move forward from here https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501220600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:33 PM, mitchnick said: 6z AI Precip. Move forward from here.https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501220600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600 850's move forward from herehttps://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501220600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600Holy smokes . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That would be a paste bomb on Euro AI. Interesting, would love to get something crazy wound up like that and just see what happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:41 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: That would be a paste bomb on Euro AI. Interesting, would love to get something crazy wound up like that and just see what happens. Expand Paste bomb verbatim, yes. Let’s see how the temps trend if the wave holds as it gets closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro from last night looked pretty interesting. Not seeing much of a warm-up through the whole run with some shots at snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 6Z AI....worth keeping an eye on..... 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:48 PM, osfan24 said: Euro from last night looked pretty interesting. Not seeing much of a warm-up through the whole run with some shots at snow. Expand Yeah it had a pretty nice look at h5 and the surface for the very end of the month, close to the same window as the AI storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:47 PM, Terpeast said: Paste bomb verbatim, yes. Let’s see how the temps trend if the wave holds as it gets closer. Expand There is a LOT of mixing along 95 but goes to snow for the crazy deform band with 3-6" at the end...before that is really iffy. Sitting right on the 850 0 line the whole time is not usually where you want to be because unless the entire column is exactly isothermal there is going to be a slightly warmer layer somewhere or in between panels. Verbatim this run looks like a 6-12" storm for places like Winchester, MRG, My area...4-8" NW of the fall line out to a Purvellville to Westminster line with mixing and 3-6" along 95 with a lot of mixing until that deform band cools the column... Is it too soon to lock down the exact location of a deform? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing. This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb. Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that. I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:56 PM, Weather Will said: WB 6Z AI....worth keeping an eye on..... Expand Not a great look for the lowlands once again, and still not at climo here despite the frigid airmasses, to a degree wasted potential like usual. Its been a lower Delaware type of winter and a SE US winter so far from a climo point of view, maybe March redeems for areas that have missed the biggest snowfalls. At least the snow has stuck around, which is a huge win for winter weather lovers ! Looking at trends on the distant AO it appears we are getting some signals that the - AO and blocking return later in the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 2:19 PM, psuhoffman said: BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing. This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb. Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that. I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time. Expand Sounds like you are aligning your thoughts with HM. You guys are on the same page, makes sense if we keep the cold on our side, then we can score in early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 2:19 PM, psuhoffman said: BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing. This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb. Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that. I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time. Expand Makes sense that there would be a grand finale at the end of the cold pattern as it has happened often over the years. Now all we can do is hope that we're in the bullseye if it does happen. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 11:27 AM, WxUSAF said: FWIW, HM on Bluesky “This is the kind of winter in Philadelphia where it hits 70°F around 2/20 and then the largest snowfall of the season hits March 5-10.“ Expand lol - Denver, CO weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Can’t hate where this was potentially headed. Need the northern stream to beat out the ULl to provide extra cold shot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS looks nice at day 8-10, that’s a decent confluence look. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Shred factory. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC looks very close to the Ai but no confluence . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 4:32 PM, Heisy said: GFS looks nice at day 8-10, that’s a decent confluence look. . Expand Snow to ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:30 PM, mitchnick said: @Heisy and those interested If 850 temps cooperated, it looks like a full blown Blizzard on the AI for the 31st-1st. The u/l is so strong it kills 850's for part of the storm, but surface look marginal but OK. Obviously, can't take temps verbatim and the crummy mapscmay be overdoing the 850 warming. Expand AI did well once and flopped once but at least it sticks to its design and doesn’t go from 8” to 1” every 6 hours. Let’s see how it fares this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like a slow tracking period the next few days with some tracking ramping up this weekend for that late week potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looking good On 12/31/2024 at 11:49 PM, RevWarReenactor said: People laughed when I said every super cold pattern in the last 10 years hasn't produced anything. Expand On 1/22/2025 at 1:01 PM, RevWarReenactor said: I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/22/2025 at 1:25 PM, psuhoffman said: You need to know your climo. There are 8 pretty good analogs in the last 30 years to this season and 7/8 produced good snow for a part of this forum in March! Forget the analogs just in the last 20 years 2005, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 all produced snow around here in March. Many missed YOU because you chose to live in a Fckn snow hole that has a low chance of snow even in a good pattern. On top of that you don’t count snow that doesn’t stick to the road lol. But seriously why does someone who needs snow like you seem too live where you do? You know if you moved 15 miles NW you’d average 10” more a year. 25 miles and you’d double your average! Stop complaining about the realities of your climo and do something. If you need snow and want snow that sticks on the road move somewhere that’s normal because it’s a huge anomaly where you live. Expand Really wouldn't pay him much mind. He's been around a while and whines a ton and is often wrong. He's an Eeyore to the max. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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