January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Analog pattern for February

This looks very similar to what the ensembles are showing at the end of their runs. It’s not shit the blinds pattern, more of a gradient one with cold air lurking just to the north. Upper plains and great lakes will do well, and every cutter of decent strength will bring in cold air southward and eastward. Those are the short/small windows to watch for for any small hits or well timed phasers. Late feb and march should also be interesting. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This looks very similar to what the ensembles are showing at the end of their runs. It’s not shit the blinds pattern, more of a gradient one with cold air lurking just to the north. Upper plains and great lakes will do well, and every cutter of decent strength will bring in cold air southward and eastward. Those are the short/small windows to watch for for any small hits or well timed phasers. Late feb and march should also be interesting. 

Maaaaan when has late Feb (that is after PD) EVER been interesting?

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This looks very similar to what the ensembles are showing at the end of their runs. It’s not shit the blinds pattern, more of a gradient one with cold air lurking just to the north. Upper plains and great lakes will do well, and every cutter of decent strength will bring in cold air southward and eastward. Those are the short/small windows to watch for for any small hits or well timed phasers. Late feb and march should also be interesting. 

There were several small snows in some of those years, but the NW parts of our region did much better.  There was a well timed follow up wave in Feb 2018 that gave the area 1-4" of snow.  2022 I got 6" from another example of that and the northern 1/3 of the area got 1-4" but 95 just missed out...I think there was about an inch in the cities from that.  I know 2019 was a nino officially but it acted more like a nina and had a similar pattern and we got a 3-5" snow from a boundary wave following a cold front during one of the rare cold windows.

So its not a total no hope pattern...but if things do progress the way they look...if we don't score during the window around Jan 28-Feb 2, we are probably waiting until March for the next chance at a big snowstorm.  

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maaaaan when has late Feb (that is after PD) EVER been interesting?

2005 we got 2 snows the last week of February.  We got a smaller but decent snow a few days after the PD2 blizzard in 2003.  We got a 3-5" snowstorm Feb 25 in 2007.  North of 70 in MD got a 3-6" snow on Feb 22 in 2011.  Feb 21 2015 we got a 4-8" snowstorm across the area.  MD got a 2-4" snow on Feb 22 2021.  

[HighStakes]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maaaaan when has late Feb (that is after PD) EVER been interesting?

There are number of years that produced after PD for parts of the forum not just the far North and West

Here's a list: 84,86,93,94,99,2005,2007,,2013,2014,2015,2018 

 

 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

 

   I'd rather it be south  of us this far out then north of us!!  Lots of time to improve 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

There are number of years that produced after PD for parts of the forum not just the far North and West

Here's a list: 84,86,93,94,99,2005,2007,,2013,2014,2015,2018 

 

 

Wow definitely  more than a few!

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow definitely  more than a few!

I left out a few like 2009. Not all were great but everyone produced something after PD through the end of March. I didn't mention 87 either and that had a great wet snow event in late February. 

[bncho]

If I hear that winter isn't over then I'm all for it.
March snow may be in March but hey, is it snow!

[HighStakes]

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we do go into a milder period in Feb we will probably flip cold in March.  Not because JB says so...because the statistics say so.

If we look at all cold enso years, including cold neutral, in the last 30 years...and take years where January had a significant cold period and a more poleward pacific ridge, we come up with 8 analogs.

Analogs January h5: looks very similar to this year 

Analog pattern for February

Also looks close to what guidance is showing...we did snow in a few of those years in Feb but some of them were pretty lean...

But almost all of them flipped cold again for some portion of March and 7/8 years featured a March snowstorm for at least a portion of our region.  

March...

Everyone of those March's produced at least 1 storm of greater than 5 inches. Some of those years produced multiple storms 5 inches or greater in March. That is for the North and West crew 

[psuhoffman]

I had a great time in the 4" of snow I got in November this year...knowing full well it would be gone the next day!  I enjoyed the 6" snow I got in March 2022 also knowing it wouldn't last long.  It's true that once we get past PD2 might as well get the idea of some run of sustained snowcover out of your head south of 40...its all about one off hits at that point and enjoying them in the moment.  

[Ji]

2005 we got 2 snows the last week of February.  We got a smaller but decent snow a few days after the PD2 blizzard in 2003.  We got a 3-5" snowstorm Feb 25 in 2007.  North of 70 in MD got a 3-6" snow on Feb 22 in 2011.  Feb 21 2015 we got a 4-8" snowstorm across the area.  MD got a 2-4" snow on Feb 22 2021.  

That 2005 was the driest Miller A nor’easter of all time

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Everyone of those March's produced at least 1 storm of greater than 5 inches. Some of those years produced multiple storms 5 inches or greater in March. That is for the North and West crew 

Yea the analog set is very nice for our area actually.  We are very likely not done wrt snowfall up here...Actually even if we pull out 2014 as the high outlier...the average of the other 7 analog years from Feb 1 to the end of winter for Manchester is 16.1" with a minimum of 11.5".   We should make a run at 30" according to the analogs...which while below average is at least close to our median of about 35".

 

"  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

That 2005 was the driest Miller A nor’easter of all time

Yea I remember that...somehow the storm ended up with this huge but diffuse QPF field.  It had an impressively large area of snowfall but no real jack zone considering it was a 990 low coming out of the gulf.  Part of the problem was it had a messy phase and didnt really amplify as it came up the coast...so it behaved almost like an occluded cyclone instead of the amplifying storms we are used to at our latitude.  

[psuhoffman]

BTW... after re-examining the analogs today...2009 which was one of my top analogs going into the winter...still remains at the top.  It's just been a snowier version of that year so far because of that one hit...but when you look at the pattern for Dec and Jan its a really really close match.  

We had a really nice period of blocking in early January 2009 and it was a precursor to 2010 and 2011... just saying.  

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Agree. Said over the La Nina thread a few times I believe.  And this attachment supports the idea with the westerly wind burst that's actually getting going now, so it's not a pipe dream forecast.

GFS looks better out west with the bowling ball...watching the progression now

[stormtracker]

It's still back there.  Oh well

[MountainGeek]

Need to send PSU out there to yell at it and convince it to move out.....

[Ji]

It's still back there.  Oh well

Actually gives us a major winter storm, but mostly ice

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Actually gives us a major winter storm, but mostly ice

looks like about 40% ice and then some cold rain for me.  You do "better" with the ice

[mitchnick]

0z AI is a miss for Monday, light rain for the end of next week, followed by 2 more rain events.

Trough goes out west giving us a large ridge in the east. Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel/run with ridging building back over Alaska and Greenland, or it could be transient as it's too early to say if the trough pushes east in response. 

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs close to something decent...at 240hrs. Lol

[Heisy]

6z Gfs close to something decent...at 240hrs. Lol

Models will be all over the place with a cutoff like this, varying speeds etc. need to get lucky with timing. Hopefully we can!


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[WxUSAF]

FWIW, HM on Bluesky

“This is the kind of winter in Philadelphia where it hits 70°F around 2/20 and then the largest snowfall of the season hits March 5-10.“

[mitchnick]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

FWIW, HM on Bluesky

“This is the kind of winter in Philadelphia where it hits 70°F around 2/20 and then the largest snowfall of the season hits March 5-10.“

Dt agrees!

[Heisy]

FWIW, HM on Bluesky
“This is the kind of winter in Philadelphia where it hits 70°F around 2/20 and then the largest snowfall of the season hits March 5-10.“

Yeah HM gave a subtle March hint on our discord last night ha. 6z euro at 144 has a better northern stream push, same with EPS. It’s just a waiting game to see how the models handle the southern stream cutoff.




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[CAPE]

For early next week- probably not a high probability at this point but there is still enough uncertainty to keep an eye on it. The wave timing and degree of interaction between energy ejecting eastward from the southwest, and NS energy riding overtop the ridge and dropping southward is probably not going to be exactly correct as currently modeled. On current runs(GFS here) the NS vorticity digs down right overtop the southern energy and it shears out and then gets kicked off the coast with only weak surface development/precip in the mid south and a bit of snow in KY and TN on the northern edge.

 

 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah HM gave a subtle March hint on our discord last night ha. 6z euro at 144 has a better northern stream push, same with EPS. It’s just a waiting game to see how the models handle the southern stream cutoff.




.

Thought likewise. 

[RevWarReenactor]

I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. 

I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. 

I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. 

You need to know your climo. There are 8 pretty good analogs in the last 30 years to this season and 7/8 produced good snow for a part of this forum in March!   Forget the analogs just in the last 20 years 2005, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 all produced snow around here in March. 
 

Many missed YOU because you chose to live in a Fckn snow hole that has a low chance of snow even in a good pattern. On top of that you don’t count snow that doesn’t stick to the road lol. 
 

But seriously why does someone who needs snow like you seem too live where you do?  You know if you moved 15 miles NW you’d average 10” more a year. 25 miles and you’d double your average!  Stop complaining about the realities of your climo and do something. If you need snow and want snow that sticks on the road move somewhere that’s normal because it’s a huge anomaly where you live.