January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ji]

It misses!  Yay..looked like a hell of a rainstorm at first

Every southern storm that has no aid from the northern stream misses us by 100 miles. We are in the worst location.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With what happened in the South today and all the fringing that happened on the 6th I think it’s understandable to ask, when is it going to be our turn? Every time we’ve had a good pattern in the last few years that produces snow there’s always some small thing that pops up at the last second and causes it to bust

Yeah this one hurts a bit...to see dang NO get 8 inches when I haven't gotten that in 8 years...yeah that stings. But to quote @Kmlwx weather doesn't care our feelings, unfortunately! It's just a slot machine...no we're due index, lol

[mitchnick]

Ensemble snow means are all lousy too. So much for parsing through the weeds finding a pot of gold...more like stepping in dog poop.

[JenkinsJinkies]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Par for the course. Growing up here I remember tons of busts and lengthly periods of cold without snow. It happens. 

Oh I’m well aware of that, it’s just that when you see parts of Louisiana get more snow than you with an indefinite lull coming up one kind of has no choice but to take stock.

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah this one hurts a bit...to see dang NO get 8 inches when I haven't gotten that in 8 years...yeah that stings. But to quote @Kmlwx weather doesn't care our feelings, unfortunately! It's just a slot machine...no we're due index, lol

It may not care about feelings but it does care about latitude. Probably the only good to come of this is that the “we crossed a snow climo tipping point in 2016” theory no longer holds. Arguably it still didn’t hold before this because North Carolina got a decent bit of snow in 2018. 
 

I have noticed a pattern though, starting with 16-17 every third winter is pretty much wall to wall mild and snowless. 16-17, 19-20, 22-23 if this pattern holds then today’s event will sting even more in retrospect. Hopefully the PDO change sticks and that breaks us out of that pattern.

[Fozz]

36 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With what happened in the South today and all the fringing that happened on the 6th I think it’s understandable to ask, when is it going to be our turn? Every time we’ve had a good pattern in the last few years that produces snow there’s always some small thing that pops up at the last second and causes it to underperform.

Parts of Louisiana and Texas now have more snow than DC. If that remains the case for the rest of this season I am not looking forward to the inevitable hurricane of butthurt from the weenies.

Yep! Being on the outside looking in, and being told to be content with 1-3” while places south or west or north of us get 8-10”, all starts getting old.

I don’t know what’s in store for us in the next few weeks, but at some point this has to change course.

The light snow from this weekend was nice, especially in time for this cold blast, but I’m not done or ready to call it a winter.

I might head to the mountains late this weekend and take Monday off.

[CAPE]

First things first. Early next week is still on the table with some energy ejecting out of the SW. No way to know at this point how exactly the NS energy will interact. GEFS suggests some potential exists.

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yep! Being on the outside looking in, and being told to be content with 1-3” while places south or west or north of us get 8-10”, all starts getting old.

West and North I can actually understand due to latitude and elevation. Garret County will almost always get more snow than Baltimore County and New York will almost always get more snow than DC.

[LordBaltimore]

On the bright side there is something to be said about the lack of a January torch this year. Current guidance doesn't suggest we'll get above 50 until February. Looking through climate records, would be the first time in at least 25 years without a monthly high above 55 degrees for a lot of places

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Kyrie Irving called, he would like a word!  

Complete moron, may be the dumbest human being in the world. 

[Heisy]

End of 18z euro, you can see better push S with Northern stream, @mitchnick, I’ll be curious if the 18z euro Ai follows that and leads to a colder outcome for the infamous bowling ball




.

[anotherman]

Complete moron, may be the dumbest human being in the world. 

But he thinks he’s smart. The worst.

[IronTy]

Man, just looked up and the wind chills on the Gulf Coast are colder than here right now!   Crazy.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Yep! Being on the outside looking in, and being told to be content with 1-3” while places south or west or north of us get 8-10”, all starts getting old.

I don’t know what’s in store for us in the next few weeks, but at some point this has to change course.

The light snow from this weekend was nice, especially in time for this cold blast, but I’m not done or ready to call it a winter.

I might head to the mountains late this weekend and take Monday off.

 

59 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

West and North I can actually understand due to latitude and elevation. Garret County will almost always get more snow than Baltimore County and New York will almost always get more snow than DC.

Yeah being missed to N & W feels like climo (still kinda sucks but you get it). But being missed to the south many times in a row feels like a troll, lol Because you know it's not your elevation, it just didn't get to ya for no reason whatsoever. 

@Fozz Like I've said before, for once I'd like to NOT have to practice gratitude and settling for getting a fringe amount! But, what can ya do but try to enjoy it anyway...

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Ensemble snow means are all lousy too. So much for parsing through the weeds finding a pot of gold...more like stepping in dog poop.

The February warmup has been foretold by Joe Badstardi.  Don't worry though, today he said March should flip back to cold...

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Yeah being missed to N & W feels like climo (still kinda sucks but you get it). But being missed to the south many times in a row feels like a troll, lol Because you know it's not your elevation, it just didn't get to ya for no reason whatsoever. 

@Fozz Like I've said before, for once I'd like to NOT have to practice gratitude and settling for getting a fringe amount! But, what can ya do but try to enjoy it anyway...

Yeah my point is that when you get fringed in all directions then it sucks a lot more than if it’s just the usual N/W hits.

And a lot of us feel exactly how you feel, about wanting something more than just being grateful for advisory amounts or being happy for others.

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I keep waiting for someone to prove the earth isn't a sphere. Seems really flat when I look out my window.

I used to do aerospace flight test telemetry and over the horizon is real, I can attest.  Job would've been much easier if the earth was flat. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of 18z euro, you can see better push S with Northern stream, @mitchnick, I’ll be curious if the 18z euro Ai follows that and leads to a colder outcome for the infamous bowling ball




.

Oh it's a better push alright...it pushes it south and precip never makes it north of central VA, and it's rain down there.

Monday deal stays south as well. So in short, nothing...as in no snow or rain. Lol

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh it's a better push alright...it pushes it south and precip never makes it north of central VA, and it's rain down there.

Monday deal stays south as well. So in short, nothing...as in no snow or rain. Lol

 

[Heisy]

 

Fine by me personally, way too far out, it has a storm that’s all I care about


.

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Fine by me personally, way too far out, it has a storm that’s all I care about


.

Not really cold either unfortunately. 850's

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This guy lost me at 7" of snow LOL where is your snow board?

I saw him measure it with a measuring Tape at a convenience store on the Lot in the Video . 

[pazzo83]

lol cut these folks some slack, they live in fucking Florida.

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not really cold either unfortunately. 850's

That looks rather PAC zonal. Sleep we shall get.  Wake in mid Feb. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That looks rather PAC zonal. Sleep we shall get.  Wake in mid Feb. 

It's just a temporary relaxation as the cold from Canada does head south, but the pattern doesn't look snowy at the start of February. 

[Ji]

End of 18z euro, you can see better push S with Northern stream, [mention=821]mitchnick[/mention], I’ll be curious if the 18z euro Ai follows that and leads to a colder outcome for the infamous bowling ball




.

Ai looking good.
Seeing it roll in

[Ji]

Ai looking good.
Seeing it roll in

It’s good that it’s south of us right now

[Heisy]

Mitch this run is much better overall. Without the northern stream push this is a rainstorm. You can see it even builds a HP at 200 hours

This is really close to a big one… only thing worth tracking outside the small Monday/Tuesday light event





.

[Ji]

[Ji]

Mitch this run is much better overall. Without the northern stream push this is a rainstorm. You can see it even builds a HP at 200 hours

This is really close to a big one… only thing worth tracking outside the small Monday/Tuesday light event





.

Mitch has to see it exactly the way he wants or it’s a bad run

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Mitch this run is much better overall. Without the northern stream push this is a rainstorm. You can see it even builds a HP at 200 hours

This is really close to a big one… only thing worth tracking outside the small Monday/Tuesday light event





.

I agree it has potential, but that's as far as I'll go right now. If this was the kind of season where we were getting hit left and right like 13/14, then I'd be more optimistic. So I'm clear and to avoid some idiotic post by some idiot who can't read, I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, just that I don't see enough to be optimistic at this point.