January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Ditto -- really tired of coddling it. It's over -- they lost. On every conceivable metric possible. No that does not mean snow disappears. Transient regional responses mean that weird shit can happen, and should be *expected* to happen. As it turns out, warming the IO and N. Pac this rapidly has consequences downstream that may run counter to the global trend on a seasonal timeframe.

Thank you for this, and for stating it diplomatically.  I had some thoughts as well but refrained because I'd probably get too far into the "politics" of all that.  But on a scientific note, which is totally legitimate, my understanding of climate change/global warming (whatever one decides to call it...same thing!) is that one consequence involves more EXTREMES.  It doesn't mean cold disappears or that you won't get snow in the deep south, etc.  Those extremes can involve abnormal cold (and snow) in places that don't normally experience it.  I'm sure it's been this cold in the deep south and Gulf areas before...the difference in this case is there also happens to be a significant system moving through while that cold is in place.  So they're getting dumped on rather than getting effectively a "blue norther" of cold and dry.  If it was just anomalous cold, you wouldn't hear quite as much about what's happening there.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

33 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Just saw two 9" reports come in from Lafayette. Wild for them. Hell, that'd be wild for many of us these days. 

Trust me, @Ji would find a way to complain it's not enough!   (Just joking, all in fun!)

[Snow Drifter]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We know you don't care about the science. All you crave is model generated digital blue over your yard every run, and become performative when you don't get it.

Science is only right until proven wrong!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Snow Drifter said:

Science is only right until proven wrong!

Yeah I keep waiting for someone to prove the earth isn't a sphere. Seems really flat when I look out my window.

[mitchnick]

59 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Just saw the Ai, yea Mitch that’s really close to what we want to see





.

Not much faith on this end until we start to at least get some hits on operationals, the AI, or ensemble support.

[Fozz]

Can you guys believe this is Florida?

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I keep waiting for someone to prove the earth isn't a sphere. Seems really flat when I look out my window.

Kyrie Irving called, he would like a word!  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Fozz said:

Can you guys believe this is Florida?

 

Damn, I remember back in the day when Florida would measure "snow" in grams, not inches!!! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not much faith on this end until we start to at least get some hits on operationals, the AI, or ensemble support.

Also by that time the AI has removed all the cold air in the CONUS.  Euro evolution is much different keeps the northeast quite cold in that time frame but dry. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Also by that time the AI has removed all the cold air in the CONUS.  Euro evolution is much different keeps the northeast quite cold in that time frame but dry. 

18z Gfs looking interesting at 156hrs, but that sw vort wants to stay put.

[Kevin Reilly]

19 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Can you guys believe this is Florida?

 

This guy lost me at 7" of snow LOL where is your snow board?

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gfs looking interesting at 156hrs, but that sw vort wants to stay put.

blows.  ULL sitting back there spinning like me after a bag of edibles.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This guy lost me at 7" of snow LOL where is your snow board?

Been some pseudo-official 5.5” reports near Pensacola. Not saying it’s impossible, but…

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gfs looking interesting at 156hrs, but that sw vort wants to stay put.

Finally starts moving...on February 1st.  lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Finally starts moving...on February 1st.  lol

What's going on out there that causes these southern shortwaves to just meander and meander like that?

[mitchnick]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

What's going on out there that causes these southern shortwaves to just meander and meander like that?

Trapped by High Pressure to the north and nothing to push it along.

[Silver Meteor]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I keep waiting for someone to prove the earth isn't a sphere. Seems really flat when I look out my window.

I recommend Isaac Asimov's essay "The Relativity of Wrong." It's a fantastic short work and I'm sure you (and everyone else here) would love it. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Finally starts moving...on February 1st.  lol

Well, it had to wait for the cold to get put of the way you know. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Well, it had to wait for the cold to get put of the way you know. 

And that's exactly what it did.  Rainstorm incoming I believe...well I should say, it's def gonna be rain..i meant to say if it climbs the coast or sails out to sea

[stormtracker]

It misses!  Yay..looked like a hell of a rainstorm at first

[mitchnick]

500mb is a non-snow friendly mess.

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It misses!  Yay..looked like a hell of a rainstorm at first

Dodged that bullet.  Probably swing around us and hit Pensacola.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

So I can take it snow is off the table for at least the next 2 weeks?

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So I can take it snow is off the table for at least the next 2 weeks?

Nothing imminent is all you can sensibly say.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nothing imminent is all you can sensibly say.

With what happened in the South today and all the fringing that happened on the 6th I think it’s understandable to ask, when is it going to be our turn? Every time we’ve had a good pattern in the last few years that produces snow there’s always some small thing that pops up at the last second and causes it to underperform.

Parts of Louisiana and Texas now have more snow than DC. If that remains the case for the rest of this season I am not looking forward to the inevitable hurricane of butthurt from the weenies.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With what happened in the South today and all the fringing that happened on the 6th I think it’s understandable to ask, when is it going to be our turn? Every time we’ve had a good pattern in the last few years that produces snow there’s always some small thing that pops up at the last second and causes it to bust

Par for the course. Growing up here I remember tons of busts and lengthly periods of cold without snow. It happens. 

[Ji]

It misses!  Yay..looked like a hell of a rainstorm at first

Every southern storm that has no aid from the northern stream misses us by 100 miles. We are in the worst location.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With what happened in the South today and all the fringing that happened on the 6th I think it’s understandable to ask, when is it going to be our turn? Every time we’ve had a good pattern in the last few years that produces snow there’s always some small thing that pops up at the last second and causes it to bust

Yeah this one hurts a bit...to see dang NO get 8 inches when I haven't gotten that in 8 years...yeah that stings. But to quote @Kmlwx weather doesn't care our feelings, unfortunately! It's just a slot machine...no we're due index, lol

[mitchnick]

Ensemble snow means are all lousy too. So much for parsing through the weeds finding a pot of gold...more like stepping in dog poop.

[JenkinsJinkies]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Par for the course. Growing up here I remember tons of busts and lengthly periods of cold without snow. It happens. 

Oh I’m well aware of that, it’s just that when you see parts of Louisiana get more snow than you with an indefinite lull coming up one kind of has no choice but to take stock.

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah this one hurts a bit...to see dang NO get 8 inches when I haven't gotten that in 8 years...yeah that stings. But to quote @Kmlwx weather doesn't care our feelings, unfortunately! It's just a slot machine...no we're due index, lol

It may not care about feelings but it does care about latitude. Probably the only good to come of this is that the “we crossed a snow climo tipping point in 2016” theory no longer holds. Arguably it still didn’t hold before this because North Carolina got a decent bit of snow in 2018. 
 

I have noticed a pattern though, starting with 16-17 every third winter is pretty much wall to wall mild and snowless. 16-17, 19-20, 22-23 if this pattern holds then today’s event will sting even more in retrospect. Hopefully the PDO change sticks and that breaks us out of that pattern.