January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[MountainGeek]

7 hours ago, Jebman said:

Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier.

@Jebman - I don't even know where to begin - you are in freaking Texas!!! 

We're not talking a dusting here, folks. Oh no. You are going to get a "parade of plumes", a "bomb cyclone Tex-Mex fiesta" dropping white gold on cacti and tumbleweeds like it's trying to rewrite the state's weather legacy. Houston? Gone. Galveston? Forget it. Buda? It’s a snow and ice-encrusted snowy winter wonderland now.

Models were SCREAMING about this for days, but who believed it? It’s Texas! The land of brisket, 100-degree football games, and air conditioners melting asphalt. Yet here we are. You will be buried in widespread 2" and locally higher amounts!!! Texas meteorologists are blinking like deer in headlights.

DFW will shut down based on cold air alone. San Antonio is desperately trying to learn what the heck a snowplow is. Cars will be sliding around like penguins on Crisco. And you know the media will be losing its mind. "Historic Winter Blast!" “Arctic Apocalypse!” Jim Cantore might as well camp out on the Alamo steps at this point.

Stock up on popcorn and watch Texans attempt to drive in this mess. A shoutout to the heroes who’ve never seen snow but are still trying to shovel their driveways with BBQ spatulas. @Jebman - this is your time - your moment - you alone can TEACH THEM HOW TO SHOVEL!!!!

This cold will be dug in like a tick on a hound dog. Congrats Texas -- you’re the new Alberta for a week!! 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MountainGeek said:

@Jebman - I don't even know where to begin - you are in freaking Texas!!! 

We're not talking a dusting here, folks. Oh no. You are going to get a "parade of plumes", a "bomb cyclone Tex-Mex fiesta" dropping white gold on cacti and tumbleweeds like it's trying to rewrite the state's weather legacy. Houston? Gone. Galveston? Forget it. Buda? It’s a snow and ice-encrusted snowy winter wonderland now.

Models were SCREAMING about this for days, but who believed it? It’s Texas! The land of brisket, 100-degree football games, and air conditioners melting asphalt. Yet here we are. You will be buried in widespread 2" and locally higher amounts!!! Texas meteorologists are blinking like deer in headlights.

DFW will shut down based on cold air alone. San Antonio is desperately trying to learn what the heck a snowplow is. Cars will be sliding around like penguins on Crisco. And you know the media will be losing its mind. "Historic Winter Blast!" “Arctic Apocalypse!” Jim Cantore might as well camp out on the Alamo steps at this point.

Stock up on popcorn and watch Texans attempt to drive in this mess. A shoutout to the heroes who’ve never seen snow but are still trying to shovel their driveways with BBQ spatulas. @Jebman - this is your time - your moment - you alone can TEACH THEM HOW TO SHOVEL!!!!

This cold will be dug in like a tick on a hound dog. Congrats Texas -- you’re the new Alberta for a week!! 

Talk about a great reverse impression of Jeb for some Texas snow. Classic. @Jebman HEAD TO LOUISIANA with a shovel! 

[pazzo83]

56 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Obx cams

https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

i love the outer banks

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Look at the Louisiana webcams and live vicariously. 6-8" with blizzard conditions.

Oy...given what's happened imby the last 9 years, that stings. But I'm happy for them to be able to see a rare event, tho! That is amazing

[Ji]

the GFS does not want to move the upper level low....that wont work

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON has a period of light snow Monday for us, nothing big but worth keeping an eye on.  Could pad the stats a little.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

the GFS does not want to move the upper level low....that wont work

maybe its waiting for the right time...like a arctic high dropping in

[adelphi_sky]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oy...given what's happened imby the last 9 years, that stings. But I'm happy for them to be able to see a rare event, tho! That is amazing

Day After Tomorrow scene in action. Gotta get to Mexico to avoid the new ice age. 

EDIT: I guess this would qualify as a BECS for them.

[Ji]

lol taking the GFS 120 hours to move the ULL from Cali to Texas . By the time it gets here--it will be baseball season

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

So what's our next period of interest?  Looks pretty quiet on the ensembles for the next 10-15 days.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oy...given what's happened imby the last 9 years, that stings. But I'm happy for them to be able to see a rare event, tho! That is amazing

Amazing it is

https://www.klfy.com/sky10-camera-network/

[CAPE]

Puking stellar dendrites in Lafayette lol

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol taking the GFS 120 hours to move the ULL from Cali to Texas . By the time it gets here--it will be baseball season

It's an ugly run.  Dark times ahead if it's right.   It won't be.   It has a new solution every 6 hours.   

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

So what's our next period of interest?  Looks pretty quiet on the ensembles for the next 10-15 days.

Monday is still on the table. Beyond that around Feb 2 or so.

[stormy]

15 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if anyone has looked closely, but modeling is back to looking warm the start of February. Honestly, I think it's inevitable.  Weeklies went back to the warm look for every week in February after a step back from it yesterday. We'll see. Hopefully models are missing something...like weenie desires.

I think its almost inevitable as nearly always the case.  A long cold pattern is followed by a mild pattern.  When the arctic empties it takes a while to reload, if it is........

I would expect a milder at least first half of February, then a return to colder into March.

GEFS most pronounced.  ECM thinking about it.

[JenkinsJinkies]

I guess the 30/31st event went poof?

[Daniel Boone]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol taking the GFS 120 hours to move the ULL from Cali to Texas . By the time it gets here--it will be baseball season

It'll make it after it warms up enough to be Rain.

[Ji]

One of my good friend who lives in Baton Rouge

[BristowWx]

Live vicariously through the blizzard conditions in Louisiana.  Now I know we are on threshold of hell. Right at the flaming gates.  Guy with a pitchfork in red is taking reservations.  

[Terpeast]

This January seems to be spreading the snow love everywhere where everyone gets some snow. We got ours Jan 6, south got it Jan 10, nrn folks got theirs 2 days ago, and now the gulf coast is getting it too. 

Blows a big hole in the “south of 40N is SOL” narrative. Love it

[J.Mike]

The link to the cams in Lafayette has a tutorial on how to properly measure snow. Now that's one for the books. 

[Wxdood]

41 minutes ago, Ji said:

One of my good friend who lives in Baton Rouge

yep, there might be more snow in this storm than one that occured in the late 1800s...  over a century later, the same thing is happening.  should make a lot of people stop and think.

[TSSN+]

Euro a snooze too. 

[T. August]

Not sure how this anomalous event disproves a warming planet, but sure. I will say this - it’s encouraging to see these type of events still occur despite the warming. Perhaps we can still snow into the foreseeable future.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro a snooze too. 

i saw some opportunities  in the run

[JenkinsJinkies]

11 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

yep, there might be more snow in this storm than one that occured in the late 1800s...  over a century later, the same thing is happening.  should make a lot of people stop and think.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, T. August said:

Not sure how this anomalous event disproves a warming planet, but sure. I will say this - it’s encouraging to see these type of events still occur despite the warming. Perhaps we can still snow into the foreseeable future.

Not saying it does. Planet is warming, but we will see snow and I think the bad run we had since 2016 is more just a bad run than a steep dropoff in snow climo. Like instead of a -50% hit to climo, it may actually be just -10% or so.

[WxUSAF]

Let’s end this conversation please.

[T. August]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not saying it does. Planet is warming, but we will see snow and I think the bad run we had since 2016 is more just a bad run than a steep dropoff in snow climo. Like instead of a -50% hit to climo, it may actually be just -10% or so.

That was not directed at you my bad lol

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, adelphi_sky said:

Day After Tomorrow scene in action. Gotta get to Mexico to avoid the new ice age. 

EDIT: I guess this would qualify as a BECS for them.

I am in Nassau Bahamas where its 85 degrees out and here I am tracking snow up in the MA for my return.

GFS is disappointing. I paid $26.95 for the internet package to be disappointed.