January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick took a min because WxBell doesn’t specify. But Ji posted that wxmodels map that says 20 year mean and it matches the wxbell map for that day perfectly so obviously they use the same mean. 

i think wxmodels and wxbell are basically the same thing. One is cheaper and Wxmodels lets you see save favorites

[psuhoffman]

Let’s just all agree to use the control 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick took a min because WxBell doesn’t specify. But Ji posted that wxmodels map that says 20 year mean and it matches the wxbell map for that day perfectly so obviously they use the same mean. 

just wait about 20 years....a -1 day are going to show up purple on Wxbell lol

[hstorm]

7 hours ago, Jebman said:

Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier.

Congrats!!!! No one is more deserving!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s just all agree to use the control 

That explains how the Control can come up with all that snowfall. Lol

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s just all agree to use the control 

joseph Bastardi would approve

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s just all agree to use the control 

That's 1991-2020. 

Lots of bait and switch going on at that site it seems.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

just wait about 20 years....a -1 day are going to show up purple on Wxbell lol

The scary thing is that 20 year mean doesn’t include 2021-2024 which would skew it even warmer. 
 

But in the end it’s not a significant difference to our snow chances. Both are showing temps that are slightly too warm on the whole but indicate enough cold around that with a lucky storm track we can score. It’s not the shut the blinds pattern we feared. And more importantly the gefs and eps continue to trend colder as leads shorten. 

[Ji]

Just now, mitchnick said:

That's 1991-2020. 

Lots of bait and switch going on at that site it seems.

dosent it make more sense to use 1991 to 2020 than 1980?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

That's 1991-2020. 

Lots of bait and switch going on at that site it seems.

Yes but colors make a 1-2

degree change look more impactful than it actually is. This is like when some freaked out over that one gfs run that decreased QPF by .05 but because it changed blue to green it looked like some huge change. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

dosent it make more sense to use 1991 to 2020 than 1980?

I was referring to using last 20 years with the Ensembles and 1991-2020 with the Control. I think they should all be the same, whatever period they want to use.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

dosent it make more sense to use 1991 to 2020 than 1980?

Yes but what makes even more sense is for everyone to use the same scale! 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but what makes even more sense is for everyone to use the same scale! 

That I was also thinking, but you can't make them, so you have to turn what should be simple into something more if you want to be more exacting.

[Ji]

at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. 

[CAPE]

This look isn't great but its workable, with a -WPO and close to neutral EPO, TPV in a good spot, and despite a +AO/NAO. Still a mechanism to deliver some cold at times. Just have to time a wave when the cold presses the gradient southward.

 

[snowmagnet]

Just now, Ji said:

at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. 

It's only the 3rd week of January.  Keep some optimism 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This look isn't great but its workable, with a -WPO and close to neutral EPO, TPV in a good spot, and despite a +AO/NAO. Still a mechanism to deliver some cold at times. Just have to time a wave when the cold presses the gradient southward.

 

The troughs over Japan and NE of Hawaii give hope to these weenie eyes.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. 

Look at the Louisiana webcams and live vicariously. 6-8" with blizzard conditions.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This look isn't great but its workable, with a -WPO and close to neutral EPO, TPV in a good spot, and despite a +AO/NAO. Still a mechanism to deliver some cold at times. Just have to time a wave when the cold presses the gradient southward.

 

Look at the west and central pac. Opposite of recent years. That will adjust colder. 

[nw baltimore wx]

26 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there. 

Because thermometers are better now?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

The troughs over Japan and NE of Hawaii give hope to these weenie eyes.

Ninja’d

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This look isn't great but its workable, with a -WPO and close to neutral EPO, TPV in a good spot, and despite a +AO/NAO. Still a mechanism to deliver some cold at times. Just have to time a wave when the cold presses the gradient southward.

 

I really need to see at least the AO negative, if not the NAO as well, to get really interested.

[clueless]

I will take timing a wave with borderline temperatures over  suppression for sure. Rooting for the light blues.  

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Look at the Louisiana webcams and live vicariously. 6-8" with blizzard conditions.

Obx cams

https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

[blizzardmeiser]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. 

LOL.  We still have a solid 5-6 weeks of winter.  After that, we can focus on spring, baseball, and longer days. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Look at the west and central pac. Opposite of recent years. That will adjust colder. 

Yes that part looks fine. As depicted it is not a bad pattern. See where it goes moving forward. Improvement in the PDO plus a late developing weak Nina (probably trending towards neutral late winter) might bode well.

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I really need to see at least the AO negative, if not the NAO as well, to get really interested.

That would be better, but a favorable Pacific can deliver as long as it doesn't get completely hostile up top. GEFS has the AO trending closer to neutral around the end of the month.

[psuhoffman]

As long as the AO doesn’t go extremely positive we can still get some snow. The odds of a 6”+ event along 95 go way down but 2-4” type events are definitely still possible. 

[Mikeymac5306]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. 

You're right. Month and a half left of something decent that could pop up but it's over. 

 

[Heisy]

End of icon looks somewhat similar to the Ai, models will probably eventually bring the bowling ball East. We just will need the N/S and confluence to cooperate




.