aldie 22 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:31 PM, Cobalt said: Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there. Expand Yeah i'd imagine that's the reason for the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 @mitchnick @Ji I figured it out ECMWF and TT are using 1980-2010 climo WxBell is using a 20 year running mean of the last 20 years! So if you want to know how much warming is hurting is just compare the two lol. What was 2-3 degrees above average 30 years ago is now 1-2 degrees below avg lol 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 @mitchnick took a min because WxBell doesn’t specify. But Ji posted that wxmodels map that says 20 year mean and it matches the wxbell map for that day perfectly so obviously they use the same mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 the GEFS is also showing more cold for early Feb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025012106&fh=354 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:38 PM, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick took a min because WxBell doesn’t specify. But Ji posted that wxmodels map that says 20 year mean and it matches the wxbell map for that day perfectly so obviously they use the same mean. Expand i think wxmodels and wxbell are basically the same thing. One is cheaper and Wxmodels lets you see save favorites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Let’s just all agree to use the control 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:38 PM, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick took a min because WxBell doesn’t specify. But Ji posted that wxmodels map that says 20 year mean and it matches the wxbell map for that day perfectly so obviously they use the same mean. Expand just wait about 20 years....a -1 day are going to show up purple on Wxbell lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 7:31 AM, Jebman said: Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier. Expand Congrats!!!! No one is more deserving! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:41 PM, psuhoffman said: Let’s just all agree to use the control Expand That explains how the Control can come up with all that snowfall. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:41 PM, psuhoffman said: Let’s just all agree to use the control Expand joseph Bastardi would approve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:41 PM, psuhoffman said: Let’s just all agree to use the control Expand That's 1991-2020. Lots of bait and switch going on at that site it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:41 PM, Ji said: just wait about 20 years....a -1 day are going to show up purple on Wxbell lol Expand The scary thing is that 20 year mean doesn’t include 2021-2024 which would skew it even warmer. But in the end it’s not a significant difference to our snow chances. Both are showing temps that are slightly too warm on the whole but indicate enough cold around that with a lucky storm track we can score. It’s not the shut the blinds pattern we feared. And more importantly the gefs and eps continue to trend colder as leads shorten. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:46 PM, mitchnick said: That's 1991-2020. Lots of bait and switch going on at that site it seems. Expand dosent it make more sense to use 1991 to 2020 than 1980? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:46 PM, mitchnick said: That's 1991-2020. Lots of bait and switch going on at that site it seems. Expand Yes but colors make a 1-2 degree change look more impactful than it actually is. This is like when some freaked out over that one gfs run that decreased QPF by .05 but because it changed blue to green it looked like some huge change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:47 PM, Ji said: dosent it make more sense to use 1991 to 2020 than 1980? Expand I was referring to using last 20 years with the Ensembles and 1991-2020 with the Control. I think they should all be the same, whatever period they want to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:47 PM, Ji said: dosent it make more sense to use 1991 to 2020 than 1980? Expand Yes but what makes even more sense is for everyone to use the same scale! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:50 PM, psuhoffman said: Yes but what makes even more sense is for everyone to use the same scale! Expand That I was also thinking, but you can't make them, so you have to turn what should be simple into something more if you want to be more exacting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This look isn't great but its workable, with a -WPO and close to neutral EPO, TPV in a good spot, and despite a +AO/NAO. Still a mechanism to deliver some cold at times. Just have to time a wave when the cold presses the gradient southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:53 PM, Ji said: at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. Expand It's only the 3rd week of January. Keep some optimism 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:54 PM, CAPE said: This look isn't great but its workable, with a -WPO and close to neutral EPO, TPV in a good spot, and despite a +AO/NAO. Still a mechanism to deliver some cold at times. Just have to time a wave when the cold presses the gradient southward. Expand The troughs over Japan and NE of Hawaii give hope to these weenie eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:53 PM, Ji said: at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. Expand Look at the Louisiana webcams and live vicariously. 6-8" with blizzard conditions. 2 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:54 PM, CAPE said: This look isn't great but its workable, with a -WPO and close to neutral EPO, TPV in a good spot, and despite a +AO/NAO. Still a mechanism to deliver some cold at times. Just have to time a wave when the cold presses the gradient southward. Expand Look at the west and central pac. Opposite of recent years. That will adjust colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:31 PM, Cobalt said: Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there. Expand Because thermometers are better now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:57 PM, mitchnick said: The troughs over Japan and NE of Hawaii give hope to these weenie eyes. Expand Ninja’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:54 PM, CAPE said: This look isn't great but its workable, with a -WPO and close to neutral EPO, TPV in a good spot, and despite a +AO/NAO. Still a mechanism to deliver some cold at times. Just have to time a wave when the cold presses the gradient southward. Expand I really need to see at least the AO negative, if not the NAO as well, to get really interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I will take timing a wave with borderline temperatures over suppression for sure. Rooting for the light blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:57 PM, CAPE said: Look at the Louisiana webcams and live vicariously. 6-8" with blizzard conditions. Expand Obx cams https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/ https://avalonpier.com/piercam/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:53 PM, Ji said: at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. Expand LOL. We still have a solid 5-6 weeks of winter. After that, we can focus on spring, baseball, and longer days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:58 PM, psuhoffman said: Look at the west and central pac. Opposite of recent years. That will adjust colder. Expand Yes that part looks fine. As depicted it is not a bad pattern. See where it goes moving forward. Improvement in the PDO plus a late developing weak Nina (probably trending towards neutral late winter) might bode well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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