Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 4:30 AM, stormtracker said: Lil 6-8 thangIt’s like a funeral hall in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:52 AM, Heisy said: Yea second event id like the bowling ball to slow down allow the northern stream to push ahead, long way out, but once again amazing consistency. This would be one helluva achievement for the Ai to nail that look 13+ days out .You must work on the AI team 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:05 AM, JenkinsJinkies said: Post 2016 every time we get arctic shots like this we usually "pay for it" by temps shooting into the 60s-70s a couple weeks later. Expand Wasn’t that the case exactly one year ago this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Wow just 21 members in here with a few events to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 4:45 AM, Kevin Reilly said: Wasn’t that the case exactly one year ago this week? Expand And the first week of 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier. 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 7:31 AM, Jebman said: Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier. Expand Happy for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 7:31 AM, Jebman said: Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier. Expand That is awesome Jeb!! Very cool!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Next few weeks are not totally void of chances for snow, but looking kinda meh attm. CMC: Dry as a bone thru end of month. Avoids any significant warm ups, but def more mild at the end of next week. Euro: Cold to seasonable temps thru next week and then a warm up the first week of February. Also dry. GFS: Similar to the above re temps thru next week, then a mid winter thaw in early February. Next mon/tue could be interesting for some, but verbatim all winter precip is far away from the metro areas. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Guidance is adjusting colder for early Feb. shocking 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 1:06 PM, psuhoffman said: Guidance is adjusting colder for early Feb. shocking Expand When it's snowing in Buda and New Orleans, we've got ourselves a winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6z AI sticking with a now light snow event for Monday 27th. Looks like snow from DC north providing surface temps aren't quite as warm as depicted by the AI. Looks like mid 30's verbatim. The 2nd threat on next Thursday starts too warm but "might" turn to snow based on crummy maps. End of the run has a cold front with what looks like a Miller B that misses us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 @mitchnick I’d be careful using the weeklies because the looks keep adjusting once they make it inside day 15. It does look like the AO is becoming more hostile but the pacific changes keep getting muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The last run of the weeklies didn’t have any weeks above average temps though and got cold again for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 1:21 PM, mitchnick said: 6z AI sticking with a now light snow event for Monday 27th. Looks like snow from DC north providing surface temps aren't quite as warm as depicted by the AI. Looks like mid 30's verbatim. The 2nd threat on next Thursday starts too warm but "might" turn to snow based on crummy maps. End of the run has a cold front with what looks like a Miller B that misses us.The Ai has been consistently showing that ULL bowling ball head East for 2+ days now. Other models are a little stronger with the N/S push out ahead and all vary with that ULL. Hopefully we can balance both ha. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 1:06 PM, psuhoffman said: Guidance is adjusting colder for early Feb. shocking Expand Hopefully the moisture comes north in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 1:24 PM, psuhoffman said: The last run of the weeklies didn’t have any weeks above average temps though and got cold again for March. Expand This is the weeklies forecast I use directly from the Euro site out daily. Here's a link to yesterday's run. Is yours different than this? https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 1:29 PM, mitchnick said: This is the weeklies forecast I use directly from the Euro site out daily. Here's a link to yesterday's run. Is yours different than this? https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000 Expand Very different from what’s on Wxbell Here is the same time period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 1:58 PM, psuhoffman said: Very different from what’s on Wxbell Here is the same time period Expand yep--i will use the colder version of the weeklies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 1:58 PM, psuhoffman said: Very different from what’s on Wxbell Here is the same time period Expand I figured something had to be different. I believed that the Euro weeklies and Euro Extended Ensembles were the same product. But when JI posted a map from WxBell similar to yours, I made a post requesting anyone who knew with certainty if the two were the same product to let me know, but no one responded. If they are the same, I think we have to trust the Euro site over WxBell. Maybe someone who knows answer my question whether the weeklies and Extended Ensembles are the same product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 1:23 PM, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick I’d be careful using the weeklies because the looks keep adjusting once they make it inside day 15. It does look like the AO is becoming more hostile but the pacific changes keep getting muted. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:08 PM, brooklynwx99 said: Expand Are the weeklies the same as Extended Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:20 PM, mitchnick said: Are the weeklies the same as Extended Ensembles? Expand forget the weeklies...just look at the EPS at 360 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:23 PM, Ji said: forget the weeklies...just look at the EPS at 360 hours Expand Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:26 PM, mitchnick said: Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell. Expand always go with the coldest/snowiest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:26 PM, mitchnick said: Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell. Expand What does 20-year M-Climate mean on WxBell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:26 PM, mitchnick said: Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell. Expand Does the 81-2010 climatology differ from what Wxbell is using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:20 PM, mitchnick said: Are the weeklies the same as Extended Ensembles? Expand On Wxbell they’re labeled as “weeklies” but who knows. I compared the two and they’re just different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:29 PM, aldie 22 said: Does the 81-2010 climatology differ from what Wxbell is using? Expand Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 2:28 PM, Rhino16 said: What does 20-year M-Climate mean on WxBell? Expand On 1/21/2025 at 2:29 PM, aldie 22 said: Does the 81-2010 climatology differ from what Wxbell is using? Expand Wondering the same. Here's Pivotal, but it uses median, which is closer to WxBell in coverage of anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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