January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[JenkinsJinkies]

24 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Wasn’t that the case exactly one year ago this week? 

And the first week of 2023

[Jebman]

Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier.

[Solution Man]

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier.

Happy for you

[midatlanticweather]

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier.

That is awesome Jeb!! Very cool!! 

[snowfan]

Next few weeks are not totally void of chances for snow, but looking kinda meh attm. 
 

CMC: Dry as a bone thru end of month. Avoids any significant warm ups, but def more mild at the end of next week. 

Euro: Cold to seasonable temps thru next week and then a warm up the first week of February. Also dry.

GFS: Similar to the above re temps thru next week, then a mid winter thaw in early February. Next mon/tue could be interesting for some, but verbatim all winter precip is far away from the metro areas. 

[psuhoffman]

Guidance is adjusting colder for early Feb. shocking 

[87storms]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Guidance is adjusting colder for early Feb. shocking 

When it's snowing in Buda and New Orleans, we've got ourselves a winter.

[mitchnick]

6z AI sticking with a now light snow event for Monday 27th. Looks like snow from DC north providing surface temps aren't quite as warm as depicted by the AI. Looks like mid 30's verbatim. 

The 2nd threat on next Thursday starts too warm but "might" turn to snow based on crummy maps.

End of the run has a cold front with what looks like a Miller B that misses us.

[psuhoffman]

@mitchnick I’d be careful using the weeklies because the looks keep adjusting once they make it inside day 15. It does look like the AO is becoming more hostile but the pacific changes keep getting muted. 

[psuhoffman]

The last run of the weeklies didn’t have any weeks above average temps though and got cold again for March. 

[Heisy]

6z AI sticking with a now light snow event for Monday 27th. Looks like snow from DC north providing surface temps aren't quite as warm as depicted by the AI. Looks like mid 30's verbatim. 
The 2nd threat on next Thursday starts too warm but "might" turn to snow based on crummy maps.
End of the run has a cold front with what looks like a Miller B that misses us.

The Ai has been consistently showing that ULL bowling ball head East for 2+ days now. Other models are a little stronger with the N/S push out ahead and all vary with that ULL. Hopefully we can balance both ha.


.

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Guidance is adjusting colder for early Feb. shocking 

Hopefully the moisture comes north in February 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The last run of the weeklies didn’t have any weeks above average temps though and got cold again for March. 

This is the weeklies forecast I use directly from the Euro site out daily.

Here's a link to yesterday's run. Is yours different than this? 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is the weeklies forecast I use directly from the Euro site out daily.

Here's a link to yesterday's run. Is yours different than this? 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

Very different from what’s on Wxbell

Here is the same time period 

 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Very different from what’s on Wxbell

Here is the same time period 

 

yep--i will use the colder version of the weeklies

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Very different from what’s on Wxbell

Here is the same time period 

 

I figured something had to be different.  I believed that the Euro weeklies and Euro Extended Ensembles were the same product.  But when JI posted a map from WxBell similar to yours, I made a post requesting anyone who knew with certainty if the two were the same product to let me know, but no one responded. If they are the same, I think we have to trust the Euro site over WxBell.

Maybe someone who knows answer my question whether the weeklies and Extended Ensembles are the same product. 

[brooklynwx99]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick I’d be careful using the weeklies because the looks keep adjusting once they make it inside day 15. It does look like the AO is becoming more hostile but the pacific changes keep getting muted. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Are the weeklies the same as Extended Ensembles? 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Are the weeklies the same as Extended Ensembles? 

forget the weeklies...just look at the EPS at 360 hours

 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

forget the weeklies...just look at the EPS at 360 hours

 

Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell.

always go with the coldest/snowiest model. 

[Rhino16]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell.

What does 20-year M-Climate mean on WxBell?

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell.

Does the 81-2010 climatology differ from what Wxbell is using?

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Are the weeklies the same as Extended Ensembles? 

On Wxbell they’re labeled as “weeklies” but who knows. I compared the two and they’re just different. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Does the 81-2010 climatology differ from what Wxbell is using?

Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

What does 20-year M-Climate mean on WxBell?

 

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Does the 81-2010 climatology differ from what Wxbell is using?

Wondering the same. Here's Pivotal, but it uses median, which is closer to WxBell in coverage of anomalies. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there. 

Yeah i'd imagine that's the reason for the difference

[psuhoffman]

@mitchnick @Ji

I figured it out 

ECMWF and TT are using 1980-2010 climo

WxBell is using a 20 year running mean of the last 20 years!  
 

So if you want to know how much warming is hurting is just compare the two lol. What was 2-3 degrees above average 30 years ago is now 1-2 degrees below avg lol 

[psuhoffman]

@mitchnick took a min because WxBell doesn’t specify. But Ji posted that wxmodels map that says 20 year mean and it matches the wxbell map for that day perfectly so obviously they use the same mean. 

[Ji]

the GEFS is also showing more cold for early Feb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025012106&fh=354