January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[wxmeddler]

4 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

Hi. I actually do meteorological instrumentation as my profession. Temperature measurement is are actually very reliable and is the easiest of the weather parameters to measure. The mercury thermometers made 100-200 years ago were very accurate (to within 1°F). As far as calibration, traditional ice water and a boiling water stove provide an accurate 2 point calibration that is still used today. Now is is true that modern thermometers are more precise. We can reliably measure temperatures to 0.01°F in laboratory settings and 0.1°F in natural settings. But for climatology that is all you need.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I teach a course in instrumentation, including temperature measurement(one of my favorite topics)- sensor types, accuracy, tolerance, and calibration. NBS has been around since 1901. Thermometers in the early 1900s were as accurate as a tenth of a degree-plenty good enough for weather purposes. Platinum RTDs are used today in most cases for temperature measurement for industrial applications and weather, but require electrical/electronic circuits to measure the resistance change with temperature. Accuracy varies, and in some cases may be worse than the early thermometers.

 

Yeah but did they use 3W or 4W RTDs with lead compensation?   And who knows, maybe they only used 8-bit ADCs back then and not 32-bit ADCs oversampled for ENOBs of 36 bits.  

[mitchnick]

18z AI looks better with a little more qpf and colder 850 temps. Surface temps somewhere between 0-4C, but 850's are around -4C. So I wouldn't worry about it. Also comes in on Monday and not Tuesday. 

2nd event is wetter but a little too warm for snow. Early on that one however. 

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

We’re too far north for southern sliders….too far south for miller Bs..too far east for clippers and too far west for coastal scrapers.
Worst location for snow

At around 8-11 inches, we already beat IAD January climo for snowfall which is 7 inches

Worst location indeed

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone has looked closely, but modeling is back to looking warm the start of February. Honestly, I think it's inevitable.  Weeklies went back to the warm look for every week in February after a step back from it yesterday. We'll see. Hopefully models are missing something...like weenie desires.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if anyone has looked closely, but modeling is back to looking warm the start of February. Honestly, I think it's inevitable.  Weeklies went back to the warm look for every week in February after a step back from it yesterday. We'll see. Hopefully models are missing something...like weenie desires.

Pattern has to relax at some point. But that doesnt mean we wont be near normal. Which is fine for February. 

[wxmeddler]

Even if Feb is normal, we would still be way below normal for DJF.

[Solution Man]

The Nam is hmm?

[BristowWx]

Just now, Solution Man said:

The Nam is hmm

Things that make you go hmmm

[JenkinsJinkies]

30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pattern has to relax at some point. But that doesnt mean we wont be near normal. Which is fine for February. 

Post 2016 every time we get arctic shots like this we usually "pay for it" by temps shooting into the 60s-70s a couple weeks later.

[pazzo83]

45 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The past two winters had all the cold air go to the other side of the globe. Siberia had record breaking cold. This year, though, we’ve had an open feed of cold to our side. The EPO helps bring it to our side, while the AO keeps it here longer. 

I’ll be tracking the gulf coast storm soon, it will be fun and interesting to watch

I guess one of the big differences is if you look at the arctic outbreaks from 30 years ago (mid 1990s), you saw air temps in the -30s and -40s in the upper plains states and widespread subzero readings along the coastal plain in the east.  Just doesn't seem to have the same punch (although it's time perfectly with a storm in the gulf to give them a rare snowstorm).

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I guess one of the big differences is if you look at the arctic outbreaks from 30 years ago (mid 1990s), you saw air temps in the -30s and -40s in the upper plains states and widespread subzero readings along the coastal plain in the east.  Just doesn't seem to have the same punch (although it's time perfectly with a storm in the gulf to give them a rare snowstorm).

Yep Tower, MN was -60 in 1996.  It’s hard to find -60 anywhere in N America.  

[Ji]

Don't know if anyone has looked closely, but modeling is back to looking warm the start of February. Honestly, I think it's inevitable.  Weeklies went back to the warm look for every week in February after a step back from it yesterday. We'll see. Hopefully models are missing something...like weenie desires.

Not seeing it. Maybe normal

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I guess one of the big differences is if you look at the arctic outbreaks from 30 years ago (mid 1990s), you saw air temps in the -30s and -40s in the upper plains states and widespread subzero readings along the coastal plain in the east.  Just doesn't seem to have the same punch (although it's time perfectly with a storm in the gulf to give them a rare snowstorm).

Most of the -25 and below air are in Canada, and it is a big airmass all the way from yukon to south of hudson bay. While it isn’t as severe as the one in 1994 and 1996, it is a remarkable arctic outbreak that can and will continue to happen in many future winters. And the good news is that we don’t need severe cold like the gulf coast does. 

[pazzo83]

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yep Tower, MN was -60 in 1996.  It’s hard to find -60 anywhere in N America.  

I remember watching that.  The wind chills (old calculation) were like in the -80s and -90s.  Just brutal.

[pazzo83]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Most of the -25 and below air are in Canada, and it is a big airmass all the way from yukon to south of hudson bay. While it isn’t as severe as the one in 1994 and 1996, it is a remarkable arctic outbreak that can and will continue to happen in many future winters. And the good news is that we don’t need severe cold like the gulf coast does. 

yep - we just need the right timing.  It will still snow here.  I guess the windows are just smaller.

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I guess one of the big differences is if you look at the arctic outbreaks from 30 years ago (mid 1990s), you saw air temps in the -30s and -40s in the upper plains states and widespread subzero readings along the coastal plain in the east.  Just doesn't seem to have the same punch (although it's time perfectly with a storm in the gulf to give them a rare snowstorm).

Not disputing your basic point, but there were widespread -30s and I believe some -40s in the 2021 outbreak in the Midwest.  Of course the east coast was completely shielded from that outbreak by our beloved friend, the SER.    

[87storms]

At around 8-11 inches, we already beat IAD January climo for snowfall which is 7 inches
Worst location indeed

Yea, on the flip side, we’re capable of getting scraped by all of those scenarios lol. We’re not good at extreme weather…that’s just not our location…but otherwise we’re pretty versatile.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Pattern has to relax at some point. But that doesnt mean we wont be near normal. Which is fine for February. 

For the first half anyway. When we get to VD, we start relying more on BN. 

[Heisy]

18z AI looks better with a little more qpf and colder 850 temps. Surface temps somewhere between 0-4C, but 850's are around -4C. So I wouldn't worry about it. Also comes in on Monday and not Tuesday. 
2nd event is wetter but a little too warm for snow. Early on that one however. 

Yea second event id like the bowling ball to slow down allow the northern stream to push ahead, long way out, but once again amazing consistency. This would be one helluva achievement for the Ai to nail that look 13+ days out


.

[Jebman]

In Feb is when DC Region gets some of its greatest blizzards. Feb 19, 1979 (19 inches) and Feb 11, 1983 (14 inches) come to mind. Might happen again.

Might be Commanders hit the SB AND you get a big blizzard next month.

Ralph you awarded me that hotdog but I insist you guys might get a Presidents Day Bliz this winter AND Jayden will also kick serious ass, would not surprise me Commanders get into the SB.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Yeah but did they use 3W or 4W RTDs with lead compensation?   And who knows, maybe they only used 8-bit ADCs back then and not 32-bit ADCs oversampled for ENOBs of 36 bits.  

Early resistance based sensors were connected to a Wheatstone bridge.

4 wire RTDs connected to a constant current source are ideal especially when lead wire is significant. Results in zero error. Modern electronics accept 2, 3, or 4 wire connections with current source(s) for excitation, and measure the voltage as a function of resistance. From there the signal goes into an ADC.

[mattie g]

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Pretty much.

Slow period in the snow tracking dept.

[stormtracker]

GFS semi hit at 180. Thermal issues tho

[stormtracker]

Lil 6-8 thang

[Ji]

Lil 6-8 thang

It’s like a funeral hall in here

[Ji]

Yea second event id like the bowling ball to slow down allow the northern stream to push ahead, long way out, but once again amazing consistency. This would be one helluva achievement for the Ai to nail that look 13+ days out


.

You must work on the AI team

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Post 2016 every time we get arctic shots like this we usually "pay for it" by temps shooting into the 60s-70s a couple weeks later.

Wasn’t that the case exactly one year ago this week? 

[Solution Man]

Wow just 21 members in here with a few events to track