Heisy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 7:19 PM, psuhoffman said: AI is a close miss to the south on a MECS level event around Jan 30. Two minor snows as is. What’s good is that almost all the models have the cutoff, just gotta see how it evolves from there . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:03 PM, adelphi_sky said: I am in IT and the amount of DevOps tools that are released every year makes your head spin. Before it was the regular Microsoft, Apache, Oracle software. Now there's hundreds of DevOps software. When I start a new project someone mentions that they need this software. Something I never heard of before. It's always something new. Expand Starting as a mainframe operator in the early '70s I worked my way up to programmer then applications analyst. I ended up a contractor at NAVSEA in Crystal City then left the computer world entirely in the late '80s. It's been fascinating seeing the continued development of this field from the outside where one quickly becomes a dinosaur. Note: Before any of that my "work" was as an airman sitting at a large air defense console connected to the largest computer ever built (250 tons using 3 megawatts of electricity.) That was the "Q7" a NORAD computer whose existence was long unknown to the public. Each control center (mine was HQ 20th Air Division at Ft. Lee, Va. for defense of the Southeast U.S. (Chesapeake Bay to Key West and inland to the Mississippi River)) had a pair of them. They were incredible machines! https://www.wikiwand.com/en/articles/AN/FSQ-7_Combat_Direction_Central 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 7:00 PM, psuhoffman said: I’ve seen comments were in a Nina base state but I don’t see it. It looks more hybrid which you could argue is an enso neitral look. The look in the North Pacific is Nina ish but the look in the west central pacific is most definitely not. And frankly that’s more important imo. A wpo ridge that’s not connected to the tropics is not nearly as damaging to the downstream pattern as a full latitude central pac ridge. The STJ is kinda in between too. More active than a true Nina but definitely not to Nino territory. Expand Exactly PSU . Right on the Money ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 7:11 PM, HighStakes said: Some similarities to 81/82 winter which I think was a neutral. Expand It was also the last cold neutral after an El Nino we had which is surprising after 40 years. 92-93 and 03-04 were more warm neutrals after El Nino winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:49 AM, Yeoman said: Try some imodium while watching timelapse: Th Expand They are comparing temperatures now. To temps 100 years ago ... but they don't realise that the thermometers back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then??? So we might not be as warm as they say compared to back then!! Lol 2 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:07 PM, Terpeast said: Yep that’s what I mean. ChatGPT’s code is only basic/educational at best, but nowhere near production-level quality. ML is more in my wheelhouse Expand o1 pro is pretty close (so is Claude) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Can someone who knows with certainty tell me the difference between the extended Eps and Eps weeklies, if there is a difference? Thank you. @brooklynwx99 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 8:31 PM, winter_warlock said: They are comparing temperatures now. To temps 100 years ago ... but they don't realise that the thermometers back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then??? So we might not be as warm as they say compared to back then!! Lol Expand I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate. Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 That Euro Ai run is classic bowling ball, way too far out obviously, but I’d rather that northern confluence beat out the ULL. If the ULL is fast it’ll be rain storm since you won’t allow any HP to build in.. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 8:31 PM, winter_warlock said: They are comparing temperatures now. To temps 100 years ago ... but they don't realise that the thermometers back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then??? So we might not be as warm as they say compared to back then!! Lol Expand What exactly do you imagine the world was like 100 years ago? In 1925 the first TV broadcast was made, quantum physics had already been discovered/proposed, and the first patent for a field-effect transistor was filed. Arguably the most important invention in human history. We had accurate thermometers... jfc 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Well, so far on the 18z GFS...much different out west vs 12z and looks more like the 12z EuroAtari at H5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Gfs spit out record snowfall for Jacksonville FL... Cool 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 8:31 PM, winter_warlock said: They are comparing temperatures now. To temps 100 years ago ... but they don't realise that the thermometers back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then??? So we might not be as warm as they say compared to back then!! Lol Expand On 1/20/2025 at 9:10 PM, stormy said: I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate. Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years. Expand Ah, so inaccurate thermometers are the new underwater volcanoes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Confluence just crushes that poor little southern vort to death. Shredderola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 10:35 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Ah, so inaccurate thermometers are the new underwater volcanoes. Expand Are you happy in your little corner of the world ???? I hope so. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 9:58 PM, TSG said: What exactly do you imagine the world was like 100 years ago? In 1925 the first TV broadcast was made, quantum physics had already been discovered/proposed, and the first patent for a field-effect transistor was filed. Arguably the most important invention in human history. We had accurate thermometers... jfc Expand I teach a course in instrumentation, including temperature measurement(one of my favorite topics)- sensor types, accuracy, tolerance, and calibration. NBS has been around since 1901. Thermometers in the early 1900s were as accurate as a tenth of a degree-plenty good enough for weather purposes. Platinum RTDs are used today in most cases for temperature measurement for industrial applications and weather, but require electrical/electronic circuits to measure the resistance change with temperature. Accuracy varies, and in some cases may be worse than the early thermometers. 6 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 8:36 PM, pazzo83 said: o1 pro is pretty close (so is Claude)Not with KQL I had it event an entire structure for log analytics workspaces . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 10:37 PM, stormtracker said: Confluence just crushes that poor little southern vort to death. Shredderola Expand either snow or get warm. This suppression bs is the worst 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 11:23 PM, Ji said: either snow or get warm. This suppression bs is the worst Expand Reduced to chasing snowstorms in Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 11:23 PM, Ji said: either snow or get warm. This suppression bs is the worst Expand The H5 map around around 100 or so hours is heartbreak. If you just saw that alone, you'd think we were getting something. Instead it's drier than.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 11:26 PM, CAPE said: Reduced to chasing snowstorms in Florida Expand My cousin is under a Winter Storm Warning! For ice and snow. In Tallahassee 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 11:26 PM, CAPE said: Reduced to chasing snowstorms in Florida Expand I thought Bethany was a ride 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 11:46 PM, Terpeast said: Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters Expand It also means that there will be a lot more bellyaching if other storms this season fail like yesterday's. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 11:49 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: It also means that there will be a lot more bellyaching if other storms this season fail like yesterday's. Expand Thats more of a backyard thing than the big picture, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 11:27 PM, stormtracker said: My cousin is under a Winter Storm Warning! For ice and snow. In Tallahassee Expand Over/under for whether your cousin does better than DC did yesterday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/20/2025 at 11:46 PM, Terpeast said: Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters Expand Just saw New Orleans is at 3-5" as well. I guess the next question is how much does the pattern relax after this arctic air intrusion. Can we winter it for another 2 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/20/2025 at 11:46 PM, Terpeast said: Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters Expand I think we are ok as long as we have a pattern that brings Arctic or Continental Polar air southward. Too much Maritime polar air that moderates as it moves southward is more iffy. So yeah, we need a -AO and/or a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/20/2025 at 11:51 PM, MountainGeek said: Over/under for whether your cousin does better than DC did yesterday? Expand She will almost do 300% or more better. Which is 1.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/21/2025 at 12:03 AM, CAPE said: I think we are ok as long as we have a pattern that brings Arctic or Continental Polar air southward. Too much Maritime polar air that moderates as it moves southward is more iffy. So yeah, we need a -AO and/or a -EPO. Expand The past two winters had all the cold air go to the other side of the globe. Siberia had record breaking cold. This year, though, we’ve had an open feed of cold to our side. The EPO helps bring it to our side, while the AO keeps it here longer. I’ll be tracking the gulf coast storm soon, it will be fun and interesting to watch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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