January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[winter_warlock]

14 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Try some imodium while watching timelapse: 

 Th

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

[pazzo83]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yep that’s what I mean. ChatGPT’s code is only basic/educational at best, but nowhere near production-level quality. ML is more in my wheelhouse

o1 pro is pretty close (so is Claude)

[mitchnick]

Can someone who knows with certainty tell me the difference between the extended Eps and Eps weeklies, if there is a difference? Thank you.

@brooklynwx99 ?

[stormy]

35 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate.  Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years.

[Heisy]

That Euro Ai run is classic bowling ball, way too far out obviously, but I’d rather that northern confluence beat out the ULL. If the ULL is fast it’ll be rain storm since you won’t allow any HP to build in.





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[TSG]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

What exactly do you imagine the world was like 100 years ago?

In 1925 the first TV broadcast was made, quantum physics had already been discovered/proposed, and the first patent for a field-effect transistor was filed. Arguably the most important invention in human history. We had accurate thermometers... jfc

[stormtracker]

Well, so far on the 18z GFS...much different out west vs 12z and looks more like the 12z EuroAtari at H5

[Paleocene]

Gfs spit out record snowfall for Jacksonville FL... Cool

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

1 hour ago, stormy said:

I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate.  Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years.

Ah, so inaccurate thermometers are the new underwater volcanoes. 

[stormtracker]

Confluence just crushes that poor little southern vort to death.  Shredderola 

[stormy]

25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ah, so inaccurate thermometers are the new underwater volcanoes. 

Are you happy in your little corner of the world ???? I hope so.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, TSG said:

What exactly do you imagine the world was like 100 years ago?

In 1925 the first TV broadcast was made, quantum physics had already been discovered/proposed, and the first patent for a field-effect transistor was filed. Arguably the most important invention in human history. We had accurate thermometers... jfc

I teach a course in instrumentation, including temperature measurement(one of my favorite topics)- sensor types, accuracy, tolerance, and calibration. NBS has been around since 1901. Thermometers in the early 1900s were as accurate as a tenth of a degree-plenty good enough for weather purposes. Platinum RTDs are used today in most cases for temperature measurement for industrial applications and weather, but require electrical/electronic circuits to measure the resistance change with temperature. Accuracy varies, and in some cases may be worse than the early thermometers.

 

[Darkstorm]

o1 pro is pretty close (so is Claude)

Not with KQL I had it event an entire structure for log analytics workspaces


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[Ji]

45 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Confluence just crushes that poor little southern vort to death.  Shredderola 

either snow or get warm. This suppression bs is the worst

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

either snow or get warm. This suppression bs is the worst

Reduced to chasing snowstorms in Florida

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

either snow or get warm. This suppression bs is the worst

The H5 map around around 100 or so hours is heartbreak.  If you just saw that alone, you'd think we were getting something.  Instead it's drier than....

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Reduced to chasing snowstorms in Florida

My cousin is under a Winter Storm Warning! For ice and snow.   In Tallahassee 

[frd]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Reduced to chasing snowstorms in Florida

I thought Bethany was a ride 

[Terpeast]

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. 

I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. 

I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

It also means that there will be a lot more bellyaching if other storms this season fail like yesterday's.

[Terpeast]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

It also means that there will be a lot more bellyaching if other storms this season fail like yesterday's.

Thats more of a backyard thing than the big picture, though.

[MountainGeek]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My cousin is under a Winter Storm Warning! For ice and snow.   In Tallahassee 

Over/under for whether your cousin does better than DC did yesterday? 

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. 

I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

Just saw New Orleans is at 3-5" as well.  I guess the next question is how much does the pattern relax after this arctic air intrusion.  Can we winter it for another 2 months?

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. 

I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

I think we are ok as long as we have a pattern that brings Arctic or Continental Polar air southward. Too much Maritime polar air that moderates as it moves southward is more iffy.

So yeah, we need a -AO and/or a -EPO.

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Over/under for whether your cousin does better than DC did yesterday? 

She will almost do 300% or more better.  Which is 1.5" 

[Terpeast]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think we are ok as long as we have a pattern that brings Arctic or Continental Polar air southward. Too much Maritime polar air that moderates as it moves southward is more iffy.

So yeah, we need a -AO and/or a -EPO.

The past two winters had all the cold air go to the other side of the globe. Siberia had record breaking cold. This year, though, we’ve had an open feed of cold to our side. The EPO helps bring it to our side, while the AO keeps it here longer. 

I’ll be tracking the gulf coast storm soon, it will be fun and interesting to watch

[Silver Meteor]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I teach a course in instrumentation, including temperature measurement(one of my favorite topics)- sensor types, accuracy, tolerance, and calibration. NBS has been around since 1901. Thermometers in the early 1900s were as accurate as a tenth of a degree-plenty good enough for weather purposes. Platinum RTDs are used today in most cases for temperature measurement for industrial applications and weather, but require electrical/electronic circuits to measure the resistance change with temperature. Accuracy varies, and in some cases may be worse than the early thermometers.

 

I wonder what the accuracy is for a mercury barometer? 

[Ji]

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. 
I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

We’re too far north for southern sliders….too far south for miller Bs..too far east for clippers and too far west for coastal scrapers.
Worst location for snow

[peribonca]

Just now, Ji said:

We’re too far north for southern sliders….too far south for miller Bs..too far east for clippers and too far west for coastal scrapers.
Worst location for snow

We used to be good at Tennessee Valley lows but those disappeared

[Scraff]

What day that snow coming to FL!?  I’ll be back in port on Saturday. Wouldn’t that be the shit!? I go on a cruise sending pics from the Caribbean. Days later finishing with Florida snow Jebwalks pics. Ain’t life grand?