January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[bncho]

37 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So if this PDO change sticks could we be in for one the next time we have a Niño?

Combine this with the Modoki Nino the CANSIPS is showing lol

[brooklynwx99]

SE ridge continues to be overmodeled in time

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

SE ridge continues to be overmodeled in time

Looks like some pacific puke is trying to edge back in.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like some pacific puke is trying to edge back in.

meh, that AK trough is from a strong -WPO. it's just modified Arctic air, not nearly the same as a Pacific blowtorch. the pattern moderates but it never really gets all that warm. weird looking, though

[Heisy]

12z euro has both events the Ai has been advertising


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[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z euro has both events the Ai has been advertising


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I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look?

[HighStakes]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look?

Just briefly looked as I'm trying to get caught up on work but it looked good. Cold storm.

[JenkinsJinkies]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meh, that AK trough is from a strong -WPO. it's just modified Arctic air, not nearly the same as a Pacific blowtorch. the pattern moderates but it never really gets all that warm. weird looking, though

The “warm up” this weekend is reaching temps 2-3 degrees below average instead of 20 degrees below average.

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look?

 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

You really just posted a 312 hr map lol 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

That’s pretty nice hopefully we can get this one from la la land to to just la land and eventually to a real threat.  First threat looks light and warm. 

[Daniel Boone]

42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

SE ridge continues to be overmodeled in time

Yep. Still active STJ as well. Where's that Nina augmented Central Pac Ridge and non existent STJ the warmanistas continue harping on.. 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You really just posted a 312 hr map lol 

Ya cause he asked about it that’s why. 

[HighStakes]

EPO looks to tank a bit around the 25th/26th. That appears to set up another major Arctic shot around day 11. If we're lucky, and of course I emphasize if, we could get a light/moderate event around day 8/9 followed by Arctic cold front and then a system attacks the retreating cold. After that it appears we do relax but that's getting pretty far out.

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yep. Still active STJ as well. Where's that Nina augmented Central Pac Ridge and non existent STJ the warmanistas continue harping on.. 

I’ve seen comments were in a Nina base state but I don’t see it. It looks more hybrid which you could argue is an enso neitral look. The look in the North Pacific is Nina ish but the look in the west central pacific is most definitely not. And frankly that’s more important imo. A wpo ridge that’s not connected to the tropics is not nearly as damaging to the downstream pattern as a full latitude central pac ridge.  
 

The STJ is kinda in between too. More active than a true Nina but definitely not to Nino territory. 

[psuhoffman]

Adding to my above thoughts, we had general god awful enso neutral winters during the recent hostile PDO regime. If this is an indication of what a enso neutral winter will be like in a more friendly PDO regime that’s very good news. One of our biggest causes for the decrease in our snowfall has been that enso neutral winters went from being pretty decent to good often to being mostly god awful recently.  Nina’s are pretty bad. And we know east based super ninos aren’t good. And weak ninos are a crap shoot. So it’s tough sledding if we can only score in a very specific rare type of one enso state (moderate to low end strong modoki Nino). If we get neutral winters back as a viable “real winter” it improves our climo a lot. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

1st event looks wetter.

AI

[psuhoffman]

I consider this an enso neitral winter. I know it’s officially a really weak Nina. But the atmosphere never coupled and it’s behaving like a neitral. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I consider this an enso neitral winter. I know it’s officially a really weak Nina. But the atmosphere never coupled and it’s behaving like a neitral. 

Agreed. Its a mishmash of competing influences that makes it essentially an enso neutral winter in the mid latitudes. 

And I’ll say we had a productive January with the number of trackable events, prevailing cold air, and the number of days with snowcover. Mby 11”+ on the month where 7-8” is climo.

If we stay cold for even half of Feb, we may reach climo or close to it. 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I consider this an enso neitral winter. I know it’s officially a really weak Nina. But the atmosphere never coupled and it’s behaving like a neitral. 

Some similarities to 81/82 winter which I think was a neutral.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look?

First is kinda meh worthy.. marginal temps....but the second one is yum

[Heisy]

1st event looks wetter.
AI

12z EPS didn’t update on wxbell for me so can’t tell how interested they are for that first event


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[psuhoffman]

I’ve seen this before. I don’t mind this look. Because A means B will end up further northeast and C will be further southeast. 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

1st event looks wetter.

AI

What about temps?  Kinda sucked on the Atari Model.

[psuhoffman]

AI is a close miss to the south on a MECS level event around Jan 30.  Two minor snows as is. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What about temps?  Kinda sucked on the Atari Model.

Start OK, warm to being close, then cool. Maybe some mix for part of it.

[Heisy]

AI is a close miss to the south on a MECS level event around Jan 30.  Two minor snows as is. 

What’s good is that almost all the models have the cutoff, just gotta see how it evolves from there




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[Silver Meteor]

2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

I am in IT and the amount of DevOps tools that are released every year makes your head spin. Before it was the regular Microsoft, Apache, Oracle software. Now there's hundreds of DevOps software. When I start a new project someone mentions that they need this software. Something I never heard of before. It's always something new.

Starting as a mainframe operator in the early '70s I worked my way up to programmer then applications analyst. I ended up a contractor at NAVSEA in Crystal City then left the computer world entirely in the late '80s. It's been fascinating seeing the continued development of this field from the outside where one quickly becomes a dinosaur.  

Note: Before any of that my "work" was as an airman sitting at a large air defense console connected to the largest computer ever built (250 tons using 3 megawatts of electricity.) That was the "Q7" a NORAD computer whose existence was long unknown to the public. Each control center (mine was HQ 20th Air Division at Ft. Lee, Va. for defense of the Southeast U.S. (Chesapeake Bay to Key West and inland to the Mississippi River)) had a pair of them. They were incredible machines! https://www.wikiwand.com/en/articles/AN/FSQ-7_Combat_Direction_Central 

[Daniel Boone]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve seen comments were in a Nina base state but I don’t see it. It looks more hybrid which you could argue is an enso neitral look. The look in the North Pacific is Nina ish but the look in the west central pacific is most definitely not. And frankly that’s more important imo. A wpo ridge that’s not connected to the tropics is not nearly as damaging to the downstream pattern as a full latitude central pac ridge.  
 

The STJ is kinda in between too. More active than a true Nina but definitely not to Nino territory. 

Exactly PSU . Right on the Money !

[SnowGoose69]

32 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Some similarities to 81/82 winter which I think was a neutral.

It was also the last cold neutral after an El Nino we had which is surprising after 40 years.  92-93 and 03-04 were more warm neutrals after El Nino winters.