anotherman Posted Monday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:18 PM People are going to excitedly open this thread hoping that a big storm is on the models only to find it’s a discussion on AI. 5 1 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted Monday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:21 PM 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I suspect that we’re in the bubble phase of the AI hype though. Two years from now, all that froth will dissipate and the so and so things we’d never heard of will fall away back into obscurity while we return to the big boys like Microsoft, Apache, etc. Legitimately there is an entire cycle that actually follows that from Gartner. We are definitely in the hype cycle where everyone pegs it as the solution in about 18-24 months is where we actually start to see the legitimate use cases pop up. Same thing happen with crypto/block chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:28 PM 33 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So if this PDO change sticks could we be in for one the next time we have a Niño? Absolutely would give a solid chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:28 PM I was going to say, these are ML more than they are AI to me. Training models. Yea, the term AI is loose…even ChatGPT is based off ml, but for forecast models the output is a forecast, not a snippet of Python. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Monday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:32 PM 37 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So if this PDO change sticks could we be in for one the next time we have a Niño? Combine this with the Modoki Nino the CANSIPS is showing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:35 PM SE ridge continues to be overmodeled in time 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: SE ridge continues to be overmodeled in time Looks like some pacific puke is trying to edge back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:40 PM 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like some pacific puke is trying to edge back in. meh, that AK trough is from a strong -WPO. it's just modified Arctic air, not nearly the same as a Pacific blowtorch. the pattern moderates but it never really gets all that warm. weird looking, though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:56 PM 12z euro has both events the Ai has been advertising . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:00 PM 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z euro has both events the Ai has been advertising . I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Monday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:09 PM 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look? Just briefly looked as I'm trying to get caught up on work but it looked good. Cold storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:09 PM 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: meh, that AK trough is from a strong -WPO. it's just modified Arctic air, not nearly the same as a Pacific blowtorch. the pattern moderates but it never really gets all that warm. weird looking, though The “warm up” this weekend is reaching temps 2-3 degrees below average instead of 20 degrees below average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Monday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:16 PM 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look? 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:19 PM 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: You really just posted a 312 hr map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Monday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:19 PM 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: That’s pretty nice hopefully we can get this one from la la land to to just la land and eventually to a real threat. First threat looks light and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:20 PM 42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: SE ridge continues to be overmodeled in time Yep. Still active STJ as well. Where's that Nina augmented Central Pac Ridge and non existent STJ the warmanistas continue harping on.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:27 PM 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You really just posted a 312 hr map lol Ya cause he asked about it that’s why. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:37 PM EPO looks to tank a bit around the 25th/26th. That appears to set up another major Arctic shot around day 11. If we're lucky, and of course I emphasize if, we could get a light/moderate event around day 8/9 followed by Arctic cold front and then a system attacks the retreating cold. After that it appears we do relax but that's getting pretty far out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:00 PM 37 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yep. Still active STJ as well. Where's that Nina augmented Central Pac Ridge and non existent STJ the warmanistas continue harping on.. I’ve seen comments were in a Nina base state but I don’t see it. It looks more hybrid which you could argue is an enso neitral look. The look in the North Pacific is Nina ish but the look in the west central pacific is most definitely not. And frankly that’s more important imo. A wpo ridge that’s not connected to the tropics is not nearly as damaging to the downstream pattern as a full latitude central pac ridge. The STJ is kinda in between too. More active than a true Nina but definitely not to Nino territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 07:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:04 PM Adding to my above thoughts, we had general god awful enso neutral winters during the recent hostile PDO regime. If this is an indication of what a enso neutral winter will be like in a more friendly PDO regime that’s very good news. One of our biggest causes for the decrease in our snowfall has been that enso neutral winters went from being pretty decent to good often to being mostly god awful recently. Nina’s are pretty bad. And we know east based super ninos aren’t good. And weak ninos are a crap shoot. So it’s tough sledding if we can only score in a very specific rare type of one enso state (moderate to low end strong modoki Nino). If we get neutral winters back as a viable “real winter” it improves our climo a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:05 PM 1st event looks wetter. AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:05 PM I consider this an enso neitral winter. I know it’s officially a really weak Nina. But the atmosphere never coupled and it’s behaving like a neitral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Monday at 07:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:09 PM 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I consider this an enso neitral winter. I know it’s officially a really weak Nina. But the atmosphere never coupled and it’s behaving like a neitral. Agreed. Its a mishmash of competing influences that makes it essentially an enso neutral winter in the mid latitudes. And I’ll say we had a productive January with the number of trackable events, prevailing cold air, and the number of days with snowcover. Mby 11”+ on the month where 7-8” is climo. If we stay cold for even half of Feb, we may reach climo or close to it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Monday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:11 PM 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I consider this an enso neitral winter. I know it’s officially a really weak Nina. But the atmosphere never coupled and it’s behaving like a neitral. Some similarities to 81/82 winter which I think was a neutral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Monday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:12 PM 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look? First is kinda meh worthy.. marginal temps....but the second one is yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:12 PM 1st event looks wetter. AI12z EPS didn’t update on wxbell for me so can’t tell how interested they are for that first event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:12 PM I’ve seen this before. I don’t mind this look. Because A means B will end up further northeast and C will be further southeast. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Monday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:13 PM 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 1st event looks wetter. AI What about temps? Kinda sucked on the Atari Model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:19 PM AI is a close miss to the south on a MECS level event around Jan 30. Two minor snows as is. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:22 PM 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What about temps? Kinda sucked on the Atari Model. Start OK, warm to being close, then cool. Maybe some mix for part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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