bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:14 PM, BristowWx said: ok...but why? things go awry at 20 hours sometimes. it would be nice to have threats continuously until March so we don't burn peak climo. just my humble opinion. Expand Sorry. I meant I'm glad we can identify storm threats at 200 hrs. The message wasn't very clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 2:51 PM, Heisy said: 6z euro Ai drives this northern shortwave down and pumps up some overrunning ahead of it.. looks like 1-3” for many… Then a few days later it brings the ULL E This run is rain to maybe some snow, but it’s all about how SE Canada looks by then. . Expand We have cold and precip on Monday plus, obviously, it's sooner so less opportunity to fail. I'd really like to see this one juice up in case #2 fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just give us our long-awaited HECS and we can all relax and just enjoy whatever else winter has in store for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Icon trending towards that Monday/Tuesday overrunning potential. Mitch it’s really amazing how the models generally just follow the Ai when it comes to H5. I wouldn’t use it for temps or precip total, but man H5 is on point . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 1:13 PM, adelphi_sky said: That would be an awesome snow chase. Sipping Sazerac hot chocolate eating beignets watch the snow fall on Bourbon Street. Expand THIS! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:28 PM, Heisy said: Icon trending towards that Monday/Tuesday overrunning potential. Mitch it’s really amazing how the models generally just follow the Ai when it comes to H5. I wouldn’t use it for temps or precip total, but man H5 is on point . Expand For now, this is the best use case for AI in weather. We are not there yet for mesoscale. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 DCA needs 5.4 inches to match climo, is that possible before the month is out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:25 PM, osfan24 said: Just give us our long-awaited HECS and we can all relax and just enjoy whatever else winter has in store for us. Expand We’ve had one non Nino HECS in the last 40 years and 2 in the last 75 years! We’ve had 7 in a Nino even though those years only make up like 30% of the winters! I think it’s safe to say we shouldn’t expect an HECS in any non Nino year. We’re missing one of the two key ingredients needed to get those level events, a strong STJ. The other being a really strong well placed 50/50 to keep the cold in place as the STJ moisture attacks, typically from blocking but we’ve had a couple where there was a 50/50 without blocking. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:04 PM, psuhoffman said: We’ve had one non Nino HECS in the last 40 years and 2 in the last 75 years! We’ve had 7 in a Nino even though those years only make up like 30% of the winters! I think it’s safe to say we shouldn’t expect an HECS in any non Nino year. We’re missing one of the two key ingredients needed to get those level events, a strong STJ. The other being a really strong well placed 50/50 to keep the cold in place as the STJ moisture attacks, typically from blocking but we’ve had a couple where there was a 50/50 without blocking. Expand I'm still a little unclear about the STJ. So, we've had seveal southern waves this year...but those are NOT stj but something else? If am active gulf not always an "stj" per se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Nice overrunning event on the GFS for next week 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 1:13 PM, adelphi_sky said: That would be an awesome snow chase. Sipping Sazerac hot chocolate eating beignets watch the snow fall on Bourbon Street. You ain’t lying. Was just down there last week. The food was legit. Went to bourbon st one night…it’s like an adult boardwalk lol. I enjoyed Sazerac, though honestly thought beignets were a bit overrated. Pretty impressive turnout for AMS…heard they broke an attendance record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:25 PM, stormtracker said: Nice overrunning event on the GFS for next week Expand Same idea as the AI, but a little wetter and 12hrs later. Close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:28 PM, mitchnick said: Same idea as the AI, but a little wetter and 12hrs later. Close enough. Expand Wish it was a lil more colder. timing is good on that first slug of moisture. Looks like a 2-4/3-5 type deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 234hrs Gfs is getting ready for an arctic dump into the Conus. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012012&fh=228&dpdt=&mc=&r=na&p=850th&m=gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:35 PM, mitchnick said: 234hrs Gfs is getting ready for an arctic dump into the Conus.https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012012&fh=228&dpdt=&mc=&r=na&p=850th&m=gfsWe might be getting too good at snow to avoid another week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:55 PM, Terpeast said: For now, this is the best use case for AI in weather. We are not there yet for mesoscale. Expand The future of AI in weather is going to be really interesting to watch. AI's increase in power over just the past year has been eye opening to me. I thought it would be some fringe thing. But no. It is now fully capable of programming at levels above the best programmers in the world. It's growth has been insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:22 PM, Maestrobjwa said: I'm still a little unclear about the STJ. So, we've had seveal southern waves this year...but those are NOT stj but something else? If am active gulf not always an "stj" per se? Expand We need a STRONG stj wave to get an HECS. That’s the difference in many events between a 6-12” event and those 20”+ snowstorms. We rarely get those juiced up southern stream bowling bowls throwing some 2”+ precipitatable water moisture feed at us in non Nino years. Further north they can get a hecs without that if the northern streak phases and bombs a storm and it develops a mature CCB with a crazy deform. But we’re too far south for that. We can sometimes get the southern edge of that and in many of our HECS storms we do get an additional 6-12” from that to put us over the top but we had 12+ already just from the STJ overrunning precip. We are too far sorry typically to get 20” from a NS phasing coastal bomb unless it has a strong STJ component initially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:26 PM, 87storms said: You ain’t lying. Was just down there last week. The food was legit. Went to bourbon st one night…it’s like an adult boardwalk lol. I enjoyed Sazerac, though honestly thought beignets were a bit overrated. Pretty impressive turnout for AMS…heard they broke an attendance record. Expand Ya it would be great, until they all freak out over 3” and the town closes like it’s Armageddon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:43 PM, clskinsfan said: The future of AI in weather is going to be really interesting to watch. AI's increase in power over just the past year has been eye opening to me. I thought it would be some fringe thing. But no. It is now fully capable of programming at levels above the best programmers in the world. It's growth has been insane. Expand Speaking from experience. It's junior/mid-level at best with programming. It's not reliable and can produce some junky and unsecure code. And man oh man can it hallucinate. I'd argue its a good complement and a productivity booster versus a replacement of what humans are capable of. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:04 PM, psuhoffman said: We’ve had one non Nino HECS in the last 40 years and 2 in the last 75 years! We’ve had 7 in a Nino even though those years only make up like 30% of the winters! I think it’s safe to say we shouldn’t expect an HECS in any non Nino year. We’re missing one of the two key ingredients needed to get those level events, a strong STJ. The other being a really strong well placed 50/50 to keep the cold in place as the STJ moisture attacks, typically from blocking but we’ve had a couple where there was a 50/50 without blocking. Expand So if this PDO change sticks could we be in for one the next time we have a Niño? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:50 PM, psuhoffman said: Ya it would be great, until they all freak out over 3” and the town closes like it’s Armageddon. Can’t blame them lol. There’s gonna be some cool pics coming out of there, assuming the snow delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:43 PM, clskinsfan said: The future of AI in weather is going to be really interesting to watch. AI's increase in power over just the past year has been eye opening to me. I thought it would be some fringe thing. But no. It is now fully capable of programming at levels above the best programmers in the world. It's growth has been insane. Expand It really has. I do some of this stuff for a living and there’s always some new thing every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:52 PM, Darkstorm said: Speaking from experience. It's junior/mid-level at best with programming. It's not reliable and can produce some junky and unsecure code. And man oh man can it hallucinate. I'd argue its a good complement and a productivity booster versus a replacement of what humans are capable of.The euro discussion I attended at ams mentioned ai as more of a hybrid solution, if memory holds (last week was a brain dump). I’d be curious to see how much overfitting would impact the models. Might result in more missed fluke events (just brainstorming). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:00 PM, Terpeast said: It really has. I do some of this stuff for a living and there’s always some new thing every week. Expand I am in IT and the amount of DevOps tools that are released every year makes your head spin. Before it was the regular Microsoft, Apache, Oracle software. Now there's hundreds of DevOps software. When I start a new project someone mentions that they need this software. Something I never heard of before. It's always something new. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:03 PM, adelphi_sky said: I am in IT and the amount of DevOps tools that are released every year makes your head spin. Before it was the regular Microsoft, Apache, Oracle software. Now there's hundreds of DevOps software. When I start a new project someone mentions that they need this software. Something I never heard of before. It's always something new. Expand I suspect that we’re in the bubble phase of the AI hype though. Two years from now, all that froth will dissipate and the so and so things we’d never heard of will fall away back into obscurity while we return to the big boys like Microsoft, Apache, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:00 PM, Terpeast said: It really has. I do some of this stuff for a living and there’s always some new thing every week. I think the “ai” in this case is more about utilizing ml (data driven vs physics), not so much using ChatGPT to write code. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:06 PM, 87storms said: I think the “ai” in this case is more about utilizing ml (data driven vs physics), not so much using ChatGPT to write code. Expand Yep that’s what I mean. ChatGPT’s code is only basic/educational at best, but nowhere near production-level quality. ML is more in my wheelhouse 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:07 PM, Terpeast said: Yep that’s what I mean. ChatGPT’s code is only basic/educational at best, but nowhere near production-level quality. ML is more in my wheelhouse Expand Yes. Open source AI is not where the future is. We have no idea what someone is working on behind closed doors right now. But at the pace of AI's improvement the future will be amazing. If not a little scary imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:07 PM, Terpeast said: Yep that’s what I mean. ChatGPT’s code is only basic/educational at best, but nowhere near production-level quality. ML is more in my wheelhouse Expand Yea, it’s pretty interesting. Been trying to better understand the math behind svn’s and neural networks. Understanding the loss function and gradient descent are key pieces, but it’s a thick topic, that’s for sure. Anyhow, heard it might snow in New Orleans lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:06 PM, 87storms said: I think the “ai” in this case is more about utilizing ml (data driven vs physics), not so much using ChatGPT to write code. Expand I was going to say, these are ML more than they are AI to me. Training models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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