January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[WEATHER53]

The low max records for DCA and BWI on Wed are 19 and 15 respectively; both from 2014. A lot of 1982, 85 (inauguration) , 1994, 2014 around the 22nd 

[WEATHER53]

Looked at BWI for -5 or colder January and got 2014, 2004, 1994, 1988, 1982 and stopped Almost all February were not as much below average but still wintry 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Maybe we can trust that it can get the general idea right, but when gametime comes we go with some of old reliables to provide specifics.

And in this case even the old reliables didn't get it right! I mean I guess the rgem...kind of? But even that didn't have the track right.

[Fozz]

The GFS is showing up to 5-6” of snow on the Florida panhandle, just 2 days from now.

This isn’t fantasy range anymore.

Would that be an all time record for the state if it happened?

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The GFS is showing up to 5-6” of snow on the Florida panhandle, just 2 days from now.

This isn’t fantasy range anymore.

Would that be an all time record for the state if it happened?

I believe their record is 4" back in March 1954.  Must have been an anomalous pattern.

[Round Hill WX]

10 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The GFS is showing up to 5-6” of snow on the Florida panhandle, just 2 days from now.

This isn’t fantasy range anymore.

Would that be an all time record for the state if it happened?

This global warming shit is getting out of control man. 

[Yeoman]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

18z AI has the 1/30-31 threat as rain now. But that can change in 6 hours so nbd.

Should turn to snow by 1/32

[Ji]

This global warming shit is getting out of control man. 

lol. Terrible

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said:

This global warming shit is getting out of control man. 

Try some imodium while watching timelapse: 

 

[pazzo83]

but but but it's cold in Florida right now

[mitchnick]

0z AI showing several threats next week (early and late week) but main concern would be suppression due to cold push being stronger. Not worth discussing details.

[Ji]

0z AI showing several threats next week (early and late week) but main concern would be suppression due to cold push being stronger. Not worth discussing details.

It looked good to me. Both systems made it up here

[brooklynwx99]

although we get a bit more Nina-ish into the end of the month, it never really looks all that warm with the TPV nearby. we'll have chances

[BlizzardNole]

8 hours ago, Fozz said:

The GFS is showing up to 5-6” of snow on the Florida panhandle, just 2 days from now.

This isn’t fantasy range anymore.

Would that be an all time record for the state if it happened?

It's weird reading about places in central Louisiana and Mississippi missing snow to the south!  Current P&C has 3-7 for Baton Rouge, 3-5 for New Orleans and 1-3 for Pensacola

[Heisy]

0z AI showing several threats next week (early and late week) but main concern would be suppression due to cold push being stronger. Not worth discussing details.

Any love on the 6z? How much snow you make out yesterday? I got about 3” somewher around that, but a solid 2+ hours of moderate to heavy snow


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[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

It looked good to me. Both systems made it up here

They do, but we don't get into the meat of the precip. Actually, last night's Gfs runs, as opposed to the Euro, aren't really that different from what the AI is showing, which is a bit surprising to me.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Any love on the 6z? How much snow you make out yesterday? I got about 3” somewher around that, but a solid 2+ hours of moderate to heavy snow


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I'll check. Ended at 6.5" measuring on the sidewalk but the other poster in Hanover measured 7".

[adelphi_sky]

3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

It's weird reading about places in central Louisiana and Mississippi missing snow to the south!  Current P&C has 3-7 for Baton Rouge, 3-5 for New Orleans and 1-3 for Pensacola

That would be an awesome snow chase. Sipping Sazerac hot chocolate eating beignets watch the snow fall on Bourbon Street. 

[mitchnick]

@Heisy

6z AI looks to be getting more interested on Monday/Tuesday next week. Still light precip with suppression of heavier stuff. But I think that's not far from a moderate event.

30/31st looks a little warm but may end as snow. This still has big upside potential imho if we get the temps to cooperate  as the AI is showing a strong bowling ball vort moving east with redevelopment off the coast. Fingers crossed. 

EDIT: Big cold dump from Canada at the end of the run.

[Heisy]

[mention=8091]Heisy[/mention]
6z AI looks to be getting more interested on Monday/Tuesday next week. Still light precip with suppression of heavier stuff. But I think that's not far from a moderate event.
30/31st looks a little warm but may end as snow. This still has big upside potential imho if we get the temps to cooperate  as the AI is showing a strong bowling ball vort moving east with redevelopment off the coast. Fingers crossed. 
EDIT: Big cold dump from Canada at the end of the run.

Thanks, Monday Tuesday next week? That’s the N/S push right, guess it dives far enough S


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[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Thanks, Monday Tuesday next week? That’s the N/S push right, guess it dives far enough S


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Looks like overrunning because the precip hits an east-west wall of -4C or less 850's.

[snowmagnet]

I’m wondering if it’s time for a new thread… We need a restart for the end of the month into February. 

[psuhoffman]

I still think our best chance will come in the Jan 26-31 window as the TPV is retreating and the boundary is near us as the cold relaxes.  There will be plenty of cold left around though so long as whatever wave is not over amplified to our west.  Obviously once we get within range the synoptic details will determine where the win is but I foresee a couple waves within that time period that should target somewhere close to our latitude. 

For Feb EPS continues to show the trough in the west central pacific under the wpo ridge. This causes ridging to extend into the SW US which prevents troughs from digging and cutting off there like has been the tendency lately. This means systems will continue to be directed further east. That’s good. 
 

Unfortunately the AO looks to go positive which could make it more difficult to be on the winning side of the boundary. It’s definitely not a sustained cold look like we’ve been in but I think we would have opportunities in that look given it’s February. 
 

Our best chance to snow in that look is to have a front clear and get a boundary wave on its heals. Kind of like yesterday only hope it’s 50 miles further south next time. 

[Heisy]

I still think our best chance will come in the Jan 26-31 window as the TPV is retreating and the boundary is near us as the cold relaxes.  There will be plenty of cold left around though so long as whatever wave is not over amplified to our west.  Obviously once we get within range the synoptic details will determine where the win is but I foresee a couple waves within that time period that should target somewhere close to our latitude. 
For Feb EPS continues to show the trough in the west central pacific under the wpo ridge. This causes ridging to extend into the SW US which prevents troughs from digging and cutting off there like has been the tendency lately. This means systems will continue to be directed further east. That’s good. 
 
Unfortunately the AO looks to go positive which could make it more difficult to be on the winning side of the boundary. It’s definitely not a sustained cold look like we’ve been in but I think we would have opportunities in that look given it’s February. 
 
Our best chance to snow in that look is to have a front clear and get a boundary wave on its heals. Kind of like yesterday only hope it’s 50 miles further south next time. 

6z euro Ai drives this northern shortwave down and pumps up some overrunning ahead of it.. looks like 1-3” for many…

Then a few days later it brings the ULL E

This run is rain to maybe some snow, but it’s all about how SE Canada looks by then.





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[bncho]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z euro Ai drives this northern shortwave down and pumps up some overrunning ahead of it.. looks like 1-3” for many…

Then a few days later it brings the ULL E

This run is rain to maybe some snow, but it’s all about how SE Canada looks by then.





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I am insanely glad that our storm threats are 200+ hours out instead of <100 hours.

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

I am insanely glad that our storm threats are 200+ hours out instead of <100 hours.

ok...but why?  things go awry at 20 hours sometimes.  it would be nice to have threats continuously until March so we don't burn peak climo.  just my humble opinion. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

ok...but why?  things go awry at 20 hours sometimes.  it would be nice to have threats continuously until March so we don't burn peak climo.  just my humble opinion. 

Sorry. I meant I'm glad we can identify storm threats at 200 hrs. The message wasn't very clear.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z euro Ai drives this northern shortwave down and pumps up some overrunning ahead of it.. looks like 1-3” for many…

Then a few days later it brings the ULL E

This run is rain to maybe some snow, but it’s all about how SE Canada looks by then.





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We have cold and precip on Monday plus, obviously, it's sooner so less opportunity to fail. I'd really like to see this one juice up in case #2 fails.

[osfan24]

Just give us our long-awaited HECS and we can all relax and just enjoy whatever else winter has in store for us.

[Heisy]

Icon trending towards that Monday/Tuesday overrunning potential. Mitch it’s really amazing how the models generally just follow the Ai when it comes to H5. I wouldn’t use it for temps or precip total, but man H5 is on point





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