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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Good morning Quick summary of what I see The first threat Sunday is actually simple, but the cause for divergence across guidance is that its delicate.  There is a vigorous SW over western A

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type

stormtracker
stormtracker

FOLKS....

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

@Heisy

I'm shocked. Euro Weeklies temps improved and now only have 1 solid AN, then slight AN, and back to normal. They were moving toward AN for February thru yesterday.  Let's hope they hold or improve! Lol

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501190000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
[mention=8091]Heisy[/mention]
I'm shocked. Euro Weeklies temps improved and now only have 1 solid AN, then slight AN, and back to normal. They were moving toward AN for February thru yesterday.  Let's hope they hold or improve! Lol
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501190000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

When you look at the weekies every day they become daily’s
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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted

Posting this for posterity. 

334
FXUS64 KMOB 192324
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
524 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

VFR conditions continue across the area through Monday evening.
Winds will generally remain out of the north-northwest tonight
around 10 to 15 knots with an occasional gust to near 20 knots.
Winds shift to the north-northeast by daybreak at 10 to 15 knots
gusting to 20 knots. MM/25



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 428 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A bitterly cold airmass locks in across the forecast area through
Monday. Surface high pressure continues to infiltrate the region
bringing with it an arctic airmass, and likely the coldest airmass
of the year so far. Temperatures and wind chills are going to be
the biggest impacts through Monday with overnight lows tonight
dipping into the upper teens and lower 20`s for all of the
forecast area. Winds remain slightly elevated through the night as
the pressure gradient is slow to relax, allowing for wind chill
values to fall into the 8 to 15 degree range over much of the
forecast area. Given this, have opted to upgrade the Cold Weather
Advisory to an Extreme Cold Warning for dangerously cold wind
chills. This magnitude of cold may result in frostbite on skin
that endures a long exposure to the cold in addition to potential
freezing/bursting of exposed pipes. Monday will continue to be
very cold, with highs generally in the middle to upper 30`s over
the interior and upper 30`s to lower 40`s nearer the coast. MM/25

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 428 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

..A significant winter storm is expected across the northern Gulf
Coast, along with dangerously cold temperatures in place for
multiple days...

Synoptics... Longwave troughing over much of the CONUS at the start
of the period will begin to lift to the northeast. An embedded
shortwave will round the base of this longwave on Tuesday and will
eject across our local area Tuesday night. At the surface, a massive
high pressure system will help advect in a very cold, arctic airmass
into the region. Additionally, a surface trough will develop over
the western Gulf in association with the shortwave moving overhead.
This trough will push very quickly to the east as it attempts to
organize into a low pressure system. The trough/low will cross the
Florida peninsula Tuesday night and move into the western Atlantic
by Wednesday. Moisture will spread to the north of this surface
trough, allowing for overrunning precip to occur across the area.
With how cold the local area will be, winter storm conditions are
becoming very likely across the area.

Winter Storm Likely... A potentially significant winter storm is
expected to affect areas along the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
At this point, the "dry scenario" is pretty much off the table, and
with high probabilities suggesting that much of the area will see at
least 1 to 2 inches of snow, the entire local area is now under a
Winter Storm Watch from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday
morning. Although there are still some precip-type uncertainties
along the coast, this will likely be an all-snow event for much of
the local area. Along the coast, there may be just enough of a warm
nose around the 850mb level to allow for some sleet pellets to be
mixed in. Otherwise, looking at temperature profiles prior to the
onset of precip, the dendritic growth zone looks to become fully
saturated by around 09z-12z overtop a very dry 0-1km layer. Precip
should initially start off as virga, or as very light flurries. Over
the following couple hours, the dry lower levels will begin to
moisten and cool (due to wet bulbing effects), likely bringing
surface temperatures/dew points into the 20s. By this point, heavier
snowfall rates will become realized and due to the colder
temperatures at the surface, snow will start to accumulate. Looking
at ensembles, the probability of accumulated snowfall greater than 3
inches continues to increase in comparison to previous days.
Probabilities now stand at roughly 40 to 60 percent, which is why we
are becoming increasingly concerned that this will be a significant
event for the local area. If snow amounts over three inches actually
occurred at KMOB, this would place us in the top 5 for historic
snowfall amounts on record for the site. If three inches of snow
occurs at KPNS, this would be actually be the highest accumulating
event since the late 1800s! It should also be noted that
probabilities have been pushed further to the south over the past
couple days, with the best probabilities lining up around the I-10
corridor. Although there could still be some more minor fluctuations
to where the heaviest snowfall will occur, these trends could lead
to some major problems along our coastal counties. We urge residents
and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely over the
next few days and to begin preparing for this event.

Dangerously Cold Temperatures... A long duration, anomalously cold
airmass has already begun pushing into the local region.
Temperatures will continue to tumble through the near term, with the
coldest temperatures expected during this short term period. The
high temperature forecast is still rather tricky when talking about
ongoing winter precip on Tuesday and lingering snowpack on
Wednesday. For Tuesday, have kept areas west of I-65 at or below
freezing for high temperatures, given the earlier start to snowfall
leading to wetbulb effects. I think that areas east of I-65 could
briefly rise into the mid to upper 30s, but temperatures will likely
quickly dive back into the 20s once precip starts. For Wednesday,
the NBM was painting the area with highs in the low 40s. Although,
yes, cloud cover will decrease allowing for plentiful sunshine, I`m
very hesitant to go that warm due to the lingering snowpack across
the area. In fact, looking at ensembles, the probability of getting
above the freezing mark is only at around 55-65 percent for
Wednesday. Therefore, I have lowered highs on Wednesday by about 4-7
degrees from the NBM output and am only forecasting highs around 34
to 38 degrees. These temperatures could even be a bit too warm
especially if higher snow amounts are realized. The reason this is
significant is that we may be below freezing for a longer period of
time which could prolong the lingering effects from the Tuesday
winter storm. Looking at lows, Monday night should drop into the
20s across the area, with mid to upper teens to the lower 20s in
place for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Factoring in winds,
apparent temperatures (wind chills) may be in the single digits to
the lower teens across the area on Monday night and will almost
definitely drop into the single digits for Tuesday night across
the area. Therefore, an Extreme Cold Watch is now in effect
starting 9PM Monday night through 10AM Wednesday morning. We
continue to urge residents and visitors to make preparations to
protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this cold weather.
/96

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 428 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Upper troughing persists across the eastern CONUS through Friday
in the wake of our winter weather event, with upper ridging
gradually starting to build in Saturday into Sunday. Some
residual impacts to area roads and bridges may be possible each
morning through Friday associated with black ice as any melting
of snow could refreeze on surfaces as overnight lows remain
bitterly cold in the upper teens and lower 20`s. Highs will only
be topping out in the lower to middle 40`s Thursday and Friday,
which could be on the generous side depending on the magnitude of
snow cover across the area. We warm up into the lower to middle
50`s for highs Saturday and potentially even middle 60`s by
Sunday. Morning lows only finally make it above freezing by the
time we get to Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the
lower to middle 30`s over the interior and upper 30`s and lower
40`s nearer the coast. Cold Weather Advisories may continue to be
needed Thursday night as overnight wind chills fall into the
middle teens areawide. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 428 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A strong northwest flow continues through tonight and Monday in
the wake of a strong cold front with a Small Craft Advisory
remaining in effect for all marine waters through late Monday
morning. The strong northwest flow decreases and becomes
northeast mid to late Monday. Another storm system will pass
across the region on Tuesday allowing for strong offshore flow to
continue through Wednesday morning. Confidence is increasing on
the occurrence of gale force gusts Tuesday into Wednesday morning
and a Gale Watch has been issued for the 20 to 60nm gulf waters.
Another Small Craft Advisory goes into effect early Tuesday
morning through Wednesday morning for the rest of the marine
waters. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      22  40  24  32  17  36  20  44 /   0   0  10  80  40   0   0   0
Pensacola   27  42  30  36  22  36  25  44 /   0   0   0  80  70  10   0   0
Destin      29  44  33  40  26  39  30  48 /   0   0  10  80  80  10   0  10
Evergreen   22  39  21  33  15  38  17  46 /   0   0   0  70  50  10   0   0
Waynesboro  19  37  20  31  13  37  17  45 /   0   0  10  70  20   0   0   0
Camden      20  37  20  31  13  36  18  42 /   0   0   0  70  30   0   0   0
Crestview   23  42  23  37  19  36  18  46 /   0   0   0  80  80  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Monday
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Monday
     for FLZ201>206.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
     for FLZ201>206.

     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for FLZ201>206.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Monday
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ630>636-650-
     655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
     GMZ630>636-650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ670-
     675.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
     GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If we fall short of climo while this happens the weenies are going to insufferable for years. Even more so if next year is a repeat of 22-23

I'm not even thinking of our own situation, just observing from afar a literal snowstorm bearing down on Houston, New Orleans, and the Florida panhandle. 

Plus the extreme cold warnings for lows of 20 degrees made me chuckle a bit.

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