mitchnick Posted Sunday at 02:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:33 AM Nothing on the Euro AI for us next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:09 AM GFS still with that close call at 120 hr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Sunday at 04:21 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:21 AM 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS still with that close call at 120 hr I’m telling you…we get a hit of some sort over the next week after tomorrow’s bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 05:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 AM Just now, psuhoffman said: This is really late, last 24 hours I've been on the road a lot. But this would have been pretty much the same map I would have put out last night if I was able too. Nothing has really changed. The high or low end of these ranges will depend on banding which will be a nowcast thing. The little bit of a gap between the 4-8" zones accounts for the little bit of a "jump" that will happen between the initial SW induced boundary wave and the coastal. 4-6" will be way more common in the 4-8" zone but I do think some isolated 8" totals will pop up somewhere in those 2 areas. As the deform band with the coastal gets going it will cut off the moisture transport to the west and the precip with the initial wave will die. This does create a bit of a gap, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as some of the high resolution models were showing. It's nice that the first threat of both high probability "windows" hit, makes it easier to track if the next few waves miss. I don't think we are done yet though...as the pattern relaxes I bet we get another wave similar to this to hit. And it still possible one of the waves this week trends north. I hate to say this, but...all this was supposed to be in the other thread, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:23 AM 6 hours ago, Amped said: One more thing about the Friday system is it reminds me a lot of the setup a few days after the Blizzard of 96. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0112.php#picture Edit: Throw in the Februrary 2001 setup also. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2001/us0205.php If that trough ends up negative instead of positive, like those two examples, we will get hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:25 AM 5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Did @psuhoffman say that Friday Storm comes with the “relax” of our pattern for a moment? Kinda like that one. Wednesday is a little dead to me beyond a frigid dusting. I think each wave after Wed has a better chance as the TPV relaxes and moves further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:28 AM 0z GFS is certainly not boring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:29 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:29 AM Looking at H5 on GFS and GGEM the Friday storm has room to trend NW, especially if the trough trends slightly more negative and captures...its trending the right way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 AM Look at the trend on the GGEM, one more move like this and its a hit 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 05:34 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:34 AM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the trend on the GGEM, one more move like this and its a hit What kind of hit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:27 PM Euro Ai keeps showing an event near the 30th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:34 PM 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: 0z GFS is certainly not boring 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro Ai keeps showing an event near the 30th . Yeah I was just flipping through the 00Z and 06Z GFS quickly and there are definitely some potential events in there! And it appears plenty enough cold air hanging around through the period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:13 PM 45 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro Ai keeps showing an event near the 30th . https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011906&fh=282 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:45 PM 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011906&fh=282 That's sweet looking. Nice cad. Perfect transfer. Moisture laden If we get that I'm at peace with a February warm up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:09 PM 21 minutes ago, Chris78 said: That's sweet looking. Nice cad. Perfect transfer. Moisture laden If we get that I'm at peace with a February warm up. Nahhh, don't want that really. I mean, the pattern will almost surely relax and change at some point, and I fully expect some part of February to be warmer/unfavorable (hopefully not a torch though, at least). But I hope for some kind of last blast of winter toward the 2nd part of February and early March, that would be nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:28 PM 19 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Nahhh, don't want that really. I mean, the pattern will almost surely relax and change at some point, and I fully expect some part of February to be warmer/unfavorable (hopefully not a torch though, at least). But I hope for some kind of last blast of winter toward the 2nd part of February and early March, that would be nice! Not late Feb, please. Have plans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 03:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:48 PM 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011906&fh=282 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: That's sweet looking. Nice cad. Perfect transfer. Moisture laden If we get that I'm at peace with a February warm up. That's actually a HECS but it's a few days too far out still to get excited yet, but AIFS has been all over that time period and other guidance has popped out the random big hit around there too. It's the period I am most interested in, pattern is relaxing but with a lot of cold still left hanging around. That's often a recipe for us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:49 PM 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not late Feb, please. Have plans Just about all the analogs that flipped warm in Feb then cold again, the flip back happened right near March 1 and the snowstorms associated with those years happened in March. Late Feb has kind of been a wasteland around here historically for a while. Who knows why. Random probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Sunday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:57 PM 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's actually a HECS but it's a few days too far out still to get excited yet, but AIFS has been all over that time period and other guidance has popped out the random big hit around there too. It's the period I am most interested in, pattern is relaxing but with a lot of cold still left hanging around. That's often a recipe for us. Yep, MECS, followed by a clipper all while the 540 line remains to our South to the very end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:59 PM GFS trying some shenanigans for the Thursday thing...let's see how it goes. H5 looks a little better so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:01 PM Agonizingly close again...still a coastal scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:03 PM Northern neck to salisbury joint again. That would be wild and torturous to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Sunday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:05 PM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Northern neck to salisbury joint again. That would be wild and torturous to see. We’re going to get some flakes out of that one… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:27 PM It's trying for something too around the 28/29th...looks like overrunning potential? Anyway...la la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted Sunday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:28 PM Of course, cold air taking too long to help us today but going to be way too much of it for that Tuesday/Wednesday storm. Still holding out hope for the late week storm but Euro isn’t interested at all and even the overzealous CMC is wide right and has been many runs now. After that, who knows. Too far out to even really look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:34 PM That's actually a HECS but it's a few days too far out still to get excited yet, but AIFS has been all over that time period and other guidance has popped out the random big hit around there too. It's the period I am most interested in, pattern is relaxing but with a lot of cold still left hanging around. That's often a recipe for us. I’m seeing all of the OPs generally follow the same progression as the Ai with dumping the energy out west and allowing N/S to race ahead to reinforce cold. Here is icon for example… . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:45 PM Way out in lala land but almost same setup as the Ai on the 12z euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:57 PM EPS has same look . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Way out in lala land but almost same setup as the Ai on the 12z euro . 12z run of AI has storm for 30-31st. Close on temps, but it's another big one. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:42 PM 12z run of AI has storm for 30-31st. Close on temps, but it's another big one.Maybe we can get it to lock in 12 days out this time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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