Weather Will Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is concerning for midweek. needs to be monitored I would say positive rather than concerning..... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is concerning for midweek. needs to be monitored That’s a huge shift, definitely worth watching. And if I’m understanding it will also be a bitterly cold storm if it reaches us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WB 0Z EURO AI not biting on a north trend for midweek yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS for midweek: 12/50 or about 24%. 18Z was 3/50. Looks like 22 to me. 44% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6z Euro looks similar wrt precip in our area, but slightly further SE. As I said in a post last evening, its very unlikely that southeastern surface low gets anywhere near our area. The vorticity from the digging shortwave plus the right rear quad of a strong jet streak modeled to be overhead would provide the lift. Just need some moisture advection. Monitoring this potential won't involve a northwest trend of the low as much as the exact location and strength of these features aloft/moisture availability. Note snow starting to develop in our area on this panel as that piece of UL energy approaches. It blossoms and fills in further SE on the next panel then slides off the coast. To me this looks like a potential light to moderate, relatively short duration fluff deal with high ratios. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 hours ago, Ji said: Getting really frustrated how we can’t get a miller A When was the last time we got a Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: When was the last time we got a Miller A? Probably more favored in an El Nino with an active STJ, and especially with NA blocking and a quieter NS. A good chunk of our snowstorms are hybrid/Miller B, including at least one of the big 3 during the 2009-10 winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6z Eps shifted south from 0z. Good test to see if the operational and Eps head toward the AI. 6z was the first step toward the AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Fyi, 0z AI showed an overrunning type snow event next Monday and then a couple more shots after that, but the later ones ar best north. Can't be stated enough that the AI is all over the place like other modeling in the long run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That's starting off pretty far west than other modeling and further north with the rn/sn line. Just sayin'. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011812&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2025011812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's starting off pretty far west than other modeling and further north with the rn/sn line. Just sayin'. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011812&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2025011812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Good observation. It’s the nam, but we’ll see if other models trend that way. It may not take much, maybe 150 miles further N to get DC in the game. 200 for you probably. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Good observation. It’s the nam, but we’ll see if other models trend that way. It may not take much, maybe 150 miles further N to get DC in the game. 200 for you probably. CMC has had most of us in the game... but it's been mainly the only model. I guess there some ensemble support across the spectrum too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, yoda said: CMC has had most of us in the game... but it's been mainly the only model. I guess there some ensemble support across the spectrum too Wouldn’t take much precip for it to be a fun day… idk when the last time any of us have seen it snow at like 10 degrees in the burbs or city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wouldn’t take much precip for it to be a fun day… idk when the last time any of us have seen it snow at like 10 degrees in the burbs or city. Just gotta hope that the Nam's 84hr depiction is better than it's 36 hr forecast...Naaahh lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 58 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's starting off pretty far west than other modeling and further north with the rn/sn line. Just sayin'. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011812&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2025011812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Weenie. For real though, watching for a western trend. Got a little set back with the last model cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS isn't very robust for the midweek storm even down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Lol, the GFS h5 looks changes so drastically with every run after like hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 H5 once again looks interesting at 117, but like all the other times, sfc is gonna be dry af Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 CMC gets a little snow up with the Wednesday storm but nothing super impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 At least this time it tries to get something going on the coast, but...well hmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 132 actually gets some precip up this way...almost moved like due north from the Carolina coast. Not a ton of precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Heh, its actually not far from being "something". Interesting run... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The ol Northern Neck, Salisbury, Rehobeth Beach, Atlantic City NJ Special 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The ol Northern Neck, Salisbury, Rehobeth Beach, Atlantic City NJ Special Are we still talking GFS or CMC because somebody threw in CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, wasnow215 said: Are we still talking GFS or CMC because somebody threw in CMC. GFS in this case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Are we still talking GFS or CMC because somebody threw in CMC. GFS for the storm AFTER the CMC miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The ol Northern Neck, Salisbury, Rehobeth Beach, Atlantic City NJ Special Rehoboth 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Rehoboth ThanKs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Really hard to get excited about anything more than 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, stormtracker said: ThanKs You're welcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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