January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Shad said:

GFS looks very similar to me compared to 6z

H5 isn't really similar at all tho.   Down south or out west

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS going the wrong way for storm 2.

ETA:  Well, it still misses...but I don't know if it's truly the wrong way.  Orientation of precip was just different. 

grand scheme of things that's kinda close. Enough to keep me intrigued

[Shad]

Candian at surface looks very similar to GFS.....will be interesting to see what Dr. No says

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

grand scheme of things that's kinda close. Enough to keep me intrigued

Wes would take this run

[stormtracker]

Hold up a minute on Storm 3...h5 trying to get it's act together, but I see no precip yet

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Shad said:

Candian at surface looks very similar to GFS.....will be interesting to see what Dr. No says

What storm do you mean?  It's not at storm 2 yet...unless you get it earlier

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

What storm do you mean?  It's not at storm 2 yet...unless you get it earlier

they're right - precip gets maybe a little further NW

[Shad]

I get it out to 120hrs at the surface pretty quick, looks very similar to GFS

[stormtracker]

Ah, some good news there.   I hope the Euro crushes us all...we need something out of next week's pattern

[JFLETCHER]

I definitely think if you are from EZF on south, you definitely want to pay attention to storm #2. EZF and south may sacrifice storm #1 for storm #2.

[stormtracker]

GFS for Storm 3, gets a little coastal going off of NC, but it's too far off the coast and moving wide right.

[WxUSAF]

H5 for GFS next week (storm 3 I guess) is really, really nice. That’s a big dog H5 configuration.

[mitchnick]

With modeling this year, both Gfs and Gem say buckle up for a bloody ride. Lol

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS for Storm 3, gets a little coastal going off of NC, but it's too far off the coast and moving wide right.

its better than the storm that went to Toledo though right?

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

H5 for GFS next week (storm 3 I guess) is really, really nice. That’s a big dog H5 configuration.

I was like...why doesn't it produce!

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

its better than the storm that went to Toledo though right?

True.  But we still miss

[Heisy]

H5 for GFS next week (storm 3 I guess) is really, really nice. That’s a big dog H5 configuration.

Need to keep the ridge from rolling over like the euro Ai does. If so it’s got a chance to be a big one.


.

[stormtracker]

All this potential on the models and nothing lights.  We gonna be on tilt next weekend if we get nothing 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GEFS looks interesting for next Friday.

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

H5 for GFS next week (storm 3 I guess) is really, really nice. That’s a big dog H5 configuration.

 

55 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I was like...why doesn't it produce!

Guidance has now fully embraced another flux of -NAO and a period with a decaying west based NAO block around day 6-10.  This probably opens the door to a bigger storm in that window (and we've now seen a few random solutions like that), although I don't think it necessarily increases our chances of snow in general.  

[rjvanals]

Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though 

[Paleocene]

12 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though 

Tallahassee/Valdosta GA Jackpot!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Tallahassee/Valdosta GA Jackpot!

Good look for New Orleans.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though 

It's REALLY close with a setup around the 25th-26th but ends up splitting the energy between two closely spaced waves and both just barely miss south...but if it were to have consolidated better (not had that frontrunner) it would have been a hit.  Besides the difference between a hit and a close miss at that range is noise.  The potential is there in that window.  I think that period is our best chance.  Before that it's probably the deep south's once a decade shot at something.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's REALLY close with a setup around the 25th-26th but ends up splitting the energy between two closely spaced waves and both just barely miss south...but if it were to have consolidated better (not had that frontrunner) it would have been a hit.  Besides the difference between a hit and a close miss at that range is noise.  The potential is there in that window.  I think that period is our best chance.  Before that it's probably the deep south's once a decade shot at something.  

Of course it's our best chance--it's a weekend 

[wasnow215]

35 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though 

It's actually trending more north and west every run or two. And Euro AI lookin even more NW

[WxUSAF]

3 globals all have a different morning with most widespread subzero threat next week. Tuesday for GFS, Wednesday euro, Thursday GGEM. I’d bet my retirement on DCA not going below zero, but IAD and BWI may have a chance? Snowcover from Sunday is critical.

[wasnow215]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's REALLY close with a setup around the 25th-26th but ends up splitting the energy between two closely spaced waves and both just barely miss south...but if it were to have consolidated better (not had that frontrunner) it would have been a hit.  Besides the difference between a hit and a close miss at that range is noise.  The potential is there in that window.  I think that period is our best chance.  Before that it's probably the deep south's once a decade shot at something.  

Looking like it's still possible Richmond south and east could still get some snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Interesting to see how it trends.

[Scraff]

Aside from Sunday, rooting no storms this week until after next Saturday at 6pm. Thanks! Sorry not sorry. Pains me to root for nada for everyone until then, but it’s sort of like me rooting for a Commanders win (as a Cowboys fan). F the Lions. But anyway. Not sure what my point is except that I’m pre-gaming my flight at BWI currently, and I don’t want to miss the big dog! Oddly enough, I’m drinking Flying Dog Truth. And thats the truth! See what I did there?

[midatlanticweather]

Wow! Euro is like Merry Whiffmiss with several systems next week.