Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:01 PM, stormtracker said: GFS going the wrong way for storm 2. Expand too much southern energy left behind compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GFS is a mess out west. Looks nothing like 6z for Storm 3 potential. I hate the gfs (only after hour 72. Before that it's a good model) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:05 PM, stormtracker said: GFS is a mess out west. Looks nothing like 6z for Storm 3 potential. I hate the gfs (only after hour 72. Before that it's a good model) Expand It looks tantalizingly close for threat 2 still. Not outta the game by any means for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:05 PM, Ji said: too much southern energy left behind compared to 6z Expand It's un-aliving Storm 3 as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:04 PM, Shad said: GFS looks very similar to me compared to 6z Expand H5 isn't really similar at all tho. Down south or out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:01 PM, stormtracker said: GFS going the wrong way for storm 2. ETA: Well, it still misses...but I don't know if it's truly the wrong way. Orientation of precip was just different. Expand grand scheme of things that's kinda close. Enough to keep me intrigued 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Candian at surface looks very similar to GFS.....will be interesting to see what Dr. No says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:09 PM, NorthArlington101 said: grand scheme of things that's kinda close. Enough to keep me intrigued Expand Wes would take this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Hold up a minute on Storm 3...h5 trying to get it's act together, but I see no precip yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:11 PM, Shad said: Candian at surface looks very similar to GFS.....will be interesting to see what Dr. No says Expand What storm do you mean? It's not at storm 2 yet...unless you get it earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:14 PM, stormtracker said: What storm do you mean? It's not at storm 2 yet...unless you get it earlier Expand they're right - precip gets maybe a little further NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I get it out to 120hrs at the surface pretty quick, looks very similar to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ah, some good news there. I hope the Euro crushes us all...we need something out of next week's pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I definitely think if you are from EZF on south, you definitely want to pay attention to storm #2. EZF and south may sacrifice storm #1 for storm #2. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GFS for Storm 3, gets a little coastal going off of NC, but it's too far off the coast and moving wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 H5 for GFS next week (storm 3 I guess) is really, really nice. That’s a big dog H5 configuration. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 With modeling this year, both Gfs and Gem say buckle up for a bloody ride. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:18 PM, stormtracker said: GFS for Storm 3, gets a little coastal going off of NC, but it's too far off the coast and moving wide right. Expand its better than the storm that went to Toledo though right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:22 PM, WxUSAF said: H5 for GFS next week (storm 3 I guess) is really, really nice. That’s a big dog H5 configuration. Expand I was like...why doesn't it produce! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:24 PM, Ji said: its better than the storm that went to Toledo though right? Expand True. But we still miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:22 PM, WxUSAF said: H5 for GFS next week (storm 3 I guess) is really, really nice. That’s a big dog H5 configuration.Need to keep the ridge from rolling over like the euro Ai does. If so it’s got a chance to be a big one. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 All this potential on the models and nothing lights. We gonna be on tilt next weekend if we get nothing 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GEFS looks interesting for next Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:22 PM, WxUSAF said: H5 for GFS next week (storm 3 I guess) is really, really nice. That’s a big dog H5 configuration. Expand On 1/17/2025 at 4:26 PM, stormtracker said: I was like...why doesn't it produce! Expand Guidance has now fully embraced another flux of -NAO and a period with a decaying west based NAO block around day 6-10. This probably opens the door to a bigger storm in that window (and we've now seen a few random solutions like that), although I don't think it necessarily increases our chances of snow in general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 5:40 PM, rjvanals said: Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though Expand Tallahassee/Valdosta GA Jackpot! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 5:54 PM, Paleocene said: Tallahassee/Valdosta GA Jackpot! Expand Good look for New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 5:40 PM, rjvanals said: Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though Expand It's REALLY close with a setup around the 25th-26th but ends up splitting the energy between two closely spaced waves and both just barely miss south...but if it were to have consolidated better (not had that frontrunner) it would have been a hit. Besides the difference between a hit and a close miss at that range is noise. The potential is there in that window. I think that period is our best chance. Before that it's probably the deep south's once a decade shot at something. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 6:00 PM, psuhoffman said: It's REALLY close with a setup around the 25th-26th but ends up splitting the energy between two closely spaced waves and both just barely miss south...but if it were to have consolidated better (not had that frontrunner) it would have been a hit. Besides the difference between a hit and a close miss at that range is noise. The potential is there in that window. I think that period is our best chance. Before that it's probably the deep south's once a decade shot at something. Expand Of course it's our best chance--it's a weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 5:40 PM, rjvanals said: Judging by snow maps Euro doesn't have anything for us through next weekend after Sunday's storm outerbanks looks snowy though Expand It's actually trending more north and west every run or two. And Euro AI lookin even more NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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