January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Solution Man]

@168 looks good

[yoda]

Just now, Solution Man said:

@168 looks good

Sort of falls apart after... but still some snow 

[Ji]

Heh, GFS is a nice little snow event now for Friday instead of a warm rain.  Gotta love this model

Yes it helped that it was phasing Shiite in California

[stormtracker]

looks like a 2-5 deal, more toward the east

[stormtracker]

The only thing we can say at this point is that next week is a powderkeg...matches flying all around and yet none may ignite. A whole lot of words to say:  We just can't know

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The only thing we can say at this point is that next week is a powderkeg...matches flying all around and yet none may ignite. A whole lot of words to say:  We just can't know

 Gonna be a busy next week or so in here!!    I love it!!

[Ji]

looks like a 2-5 deal, more toward the east

Sloppy ass storm with upside.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS v 0Z

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS v 0Z

Big shift north 

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS v 0Z

Not a bad spot a week out!!

[Weather Will]

Pattern is volatile...we don't have the final solution for midweek yet.  It was 3 days out before GFS locked into the weekend storm.

[winter_warlock]

40 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Pattern is volatile...we don't have the final solution for midweek yet.  It was 3 days out before GFS locked into the weekend storm.

Gfs Has been erratic this winter!!

[osfan24]

I'd rather it just go out to sea than watch what happens on the CMC with NC getting three feet and us getting 6 inches or whatever it is. Hopefully, it continues to adjust northward but seems unlikely. It's likely overamped like it usually is and the GFS or Euro is likely correct.

[DDweatherman]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

The only thing we can say at this point is that next week is a powderkeg...matches flying all around and yet none may ignite. A whole lot of words to say:  We just can't know

The roulette wheel thing part 2? Maybe the dart board thing?

[CAPE]

There are a few members on the 6z GEFS that get some snow up this way, and a few others are close. Its going to be a fight with Arctic cold HP entrenched.

[katabatic]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There are a few members on the 6z GEFS that get some snow up this way, and a few others are close. Its going to be a fight with Arctic cold HP entrenched.

I'm hoping that at the beginning of the week at least it's stable irt wind direction. Just reserved a house near Worth Center, NY (Tug Hill) for 5 nights beginning Sunday in hopes of chasing a big LES event. Earlier models showed it being further south, so needed to adjust. Always a gamble when your 'storm' is 10 miles wide but if you nail it, oh boy is it awesome.  

[MDScienceTeacher]

The trend on the GEFS is promising.  Almost every member shifted west since the last run.


 

[mitchnick]

AI gets some precip into the area on the 24th, but we miss most of the qpf.

After that, it has 2 or 3 coastals missing us to the south and east. But those are beyond even the AI's reliability. 

[TSSN+]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI gets some precip into the area on the 24th, but we miss most of the qpf.

After that, it has 2 or 3 coastals missing us to the south and east. But those are beyond even the AI's reliability. 

Much closer than 0z. Keep it comin 

[WxUSAF]

Webb says next week reminds him of 1/28/14. That was <1” at the three DC-Baltimore airports, ~3” at RIC, and almost 9” at ORF. FWIW.

[AlexD1990]

54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Webb says next week reminds him of 1/28/14. That was <1” at the three DC-Baltimore airports, ~3” at RIC, and almost 9” at ORF. FWIW.

but what was it at GED or SBY? 

[stormtracker]

What are we doing about next week yall?

Like do we think the number 2 storm can get to us or are we trying to get the GFS storm to get us? 

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

What are we doing about next week yall?

Like do we think the number 2 storm can get to us or are we trying to get the GFS storm to get us? 

we're trying for both 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What are we doing about next week yall?

Like do we think the number 2 storm can get to us or are we trying to get the GFS storm to get us? 

I've started to give up on the number 2 storm. Now if guidance gets closer than maybe...but even to my amateur eyes I'm not sure how it gets around that press (whatever you call it, lol). But we still have time, I think...

[stormtracker]

GFS going the wrong way for storm 2.

ETA:  Well, it still misses...but I don't know if it's truly the wrong way.  Orientation of precip was just different. 

[Shad]

GFS looks very similar to me compared to 6z

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS going the wrong way for storm 2.

too much southern energy left behind compared to 6z

[stormtracker]

GFS is a mess out west.  Looks nothing like 6z for Storm 3 potential.   I hate the gfs (only after hour 72.  Before that it's a good model) 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS is a mess out west.  Looks nothing like 6z for Storm 3 potential.   I hate the gfs (only after hour 72.  Before that it's a good model) 

It looks tantalizingly close for threat 2 still.  Not outta the game by any means for that one.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

too much southern energy left behind compared to 6z

It's un-aliving Storm 3 as we speak