LP08 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, stormtracker said: gets some light stuff up here, but heading out to sea. It's a beaut Its so close and you can tell pretty early at H5. If just a smidge more ejects from the SW, game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Scrapes us But manages to get like 6" to us. 2 feet for my mom in SC. 9 in ATL 16 for CLT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Scrapes us Well if you call 6" for DC metro scraping lol... but I get where you are going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Its so close and you can tell pretty early at H5. If just a smidge more ejects from the SW, game on. Based on the huge changes from its 00z run it’s still figuring things out. Wouldnt be surprised to see more big shifts. Let’s reel this one in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 CMC actually has a pretty nice 24-hour snow map for Weds, even though we miss the best to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Hear me out, and this may sound crazy. I don't think my mom in NE South Carolina is going to get 24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, stormtracker said: Hear me out, and this may sound crazy. I don't think my mom in NE South Carolina is going to get 24" Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Its so close and you can tell pretty early at H5. If just a smidge more ejects from the SW, game on. That’s important for sure, but how the northern stream and TPV play is equally critical. Tendency, as we’ve seen, is for the northern stream to suppress this far south. Need the TPV to move out of the way AND some northern energy to phase into the west side to pull it back north. Otherwise it’s just congrats Charleston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS is close for late week, but def not the Miller A it hand. Some temp issues DC S and E...but freezing line way south. Snow to Ice to Snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Just comical differences in H5. This fucking model man Yeah there's some odd stuff going on. If you look at the upper midwest, the 12Z GFS now has this (small) closed 528 contour over MN at 500-mb, which I don't think was there or like that before. So yeah, a low over the Lakes area. But oddly, it looks (at least initially) still cold even southeast of that surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hear me out, and this may sound crazy. I don't think my mom in NE South Carolina is going to get 24" I think its 86" looking at QPF maps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I see like 1-3/2-4” on TT but whatevs. It’ll be gone tonight. eta…snowing with temps in the single digits!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS is close for late week, but def not the Miller A it hand. Some temp issues DC S and E...but freezing line way south Ice and 25 degrees at one point? Then briefly goes above freezing it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Yeah there's some odd stuff going on. If you look at the upper midwest, the 12Z GFS now has this (small) closed 528 contour over MN at 500-mb, which I don't think was there or like that before. So yeah, a low over the Lakes area. But oddly, it looks (at least initially) still cold even southeast of that surface low. CAD holds and it's all frozen, but ICE is in there too. It's timing is just off from the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 CMC a little closer to us with the second storm, but different time frame than the GFS. Still all over the place, best to lean on ensemble trends for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CAD holds and it's all frozen, but ICE is in there too. It's timing is just off from the other guidance. It's a complicated development for sure. Almost looks like a northern stream system that pops a sort of coastal while the "primary" near the Lakes hangs on for a bit. Here's that closed low at 500 that I mentioned earlier (not sure why I can't copy/paste from TT, had to save the image and insert...but whatever): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 WB 12Z Can v 0Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS is close for late week, but def not the Miller A it hand. Some temp issues DC S and E...but freezing line way south. Snow to Ice to Snow Gfs reminds me of Feb/Mar 2015. West track but coooold in front. Maybe we get our second 6+" storm all snow below freezing start to finish with HP closer to Bermuda than Maine lol. I was thinking when this pattern was showing long range that the CAD acronym will start becoming common on the board. It's not a pretty nor classic way to snow but my picky days are long gone Eta: not saying a mixed CAD solution is the most likely. Just that if it happens it will produce anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gfs reminds me of Feb/Mar 2015. West track but coooold in front. Maybe we get our second 6+" storm all snow below freezing start to finish with HP closer to Bermuda than Maine lol. I was thinking this pattern was showing long range that the CAD acronym will start becoming common on the board. It's not a pretty nor classic way to snow but my picky days are long gone I want the CMC to keep moving N and West 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s important for sure, but how the northern stream and TPV play is equally critical. Tendency, as we’ve seen, is for the northern stream to suppress this far south. Need the TPV to move out of the way AND some northern energy to phase into the west side to pull it back north. Otherwise it’s just congrats Charleston. Toggling between, it all seems related. Less press out front, more energy comes out. A delicate balance for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Ah yes the ol' 2-footer in Jacksonville NC, though apparently it has happened https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Imagine if we hit flush on Sunday and then we get this thing to gives a MECS or HECS plus into the deep freezer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS with another arctic air mass after the late week storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Has anyone mentioned that the CMC has Baltimore at NEGATIVE 12 degrees next Thursday morning LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 51 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks like the night of March 1, 1980 ACC Basketball championship Elizabeth City got 20" and BWI 5". DCA a little better than BWI. Terps lost to NC. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 the 22-24th period is a modeling disaster. best to not tie yourself down to any particular solution and let things settle themselves. both the GFS and CMC are equally viable at this point 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looks like the night of March 1, 1980 ACC Basketball championship Elizabeth City got 20" and BWI 5". DCA a little better than BWI. Terms lost to NC. lol It was also in the mid-teens while it was snowing. And it was Duke taking the ACC championship 73-72 after a tip-in by Mike Gminski with 9 seconds left. And then the worst no-call I ever saw when Buck Williams was completely taken out trying to rebound Albert King’s last shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Imagine if we hit flush on Sunday and then we get this thing to gives a MECS or HECS plus into the deep freezer. Snow geese are getting fed this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 22-24th period is a modeling disaster. best to not tie yourself down to any particular solution and let things settle themselves. both the GFS and CMC are equally viable at this point at this point I can make a wheel for snow totals and it might be more accurate than the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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