January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Shad]

ICON looks a bit more juicy at 120, lets see where it goes

[Shad]

One more northern jump like that with the ICON and we will be in business....nice trends so far with the 12z suite

[LP08]

Pretty big change on the ICON at 132, no nearly as much holding back of the Energy out west.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

ICON looks a bit more juicy at 120, lets see where it goes

It's a miss

[Shad]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's a miss

someone once told me the trend is your friend?

[Solution Man]

Right direction compared to 12 hours ago. Good trend!

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Shad said:

someone once told me the trend is your friend?

Amazing the ICON is a miss with no follow up and the GFS is a wound up low 2 days after.  Wheel's a spinning

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Amazing the ICON is a miss with no follow up and the GFS is a wound up low 2 days after.  Wheel's a spinning

Eh the weekend rule works better anyway 

[stormtracker]

GFS on some ol' bullshit with the next potential... i mean the Wed thing that other models tried to focus on.  Still haven't got to its late week thing yet

[LP08]

Through 108, i think the CMC is going to try again for the midweek thing.  Big change out west again with the energy not being held back as much.

[stormtracker]

GFS wonky as hell today.  Sticking at certain panels, skipping some.   Guess it's gotta process the late week blizzard.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Through 108, i think the CMC is going to try again for the midweek thing.  Big change out west again with the energy not being held back as much.

It’s trying to turn the corner. Big ass storm either way. 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Through 108, i think the CMC is going to try again for the midweek thing.  Big change out west again with the energy not being held back as much.

 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s trying to turn the corner. Big ass storm either way. 

It has a 1005mb SLP SE of HSE at 144

[stormtracker]

lol, GFS about to be a cutter.   Went from Miller A to this

[stormtracker]

Just comical differences in H5.  This fucking model man

[Shad]

GFS is so bad....for what its worth CMC and ICON look pretty similar at 132

[stormtracker]

Damn.  CMC has a monster storm for the south.  Don't think it's going to turn the corner tho.   Damn shame.   ATL to greensville to CLT getting a beat down

[stormtracker]

gets some light stuff up here, but heading out to sea.  It's a beaut

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Damn.  CMC has a monster storm for the south.  Don't think it's going to turn the corner tho.   Damn shame.   ATL to greensville to CLT getting a beat down

Scrapes us

[Shad]

Big Improvements on the CMC......this Euro run is going to be interesting

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

gets some light stuff up here, but heading out to sea.  It's a beaut

Really close, boom potential is there.  This is the storm the euro crushed us with on its 12z run 2-3 days ago. Glad to see it coming back. 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, this will be a crucial Euro update.   Just like they all will be.

[LP08]

Just now, stormtracker said:

gets some light stuff up here, but heading out to sea.  It's a beaut

Its so close and you can tell pretty early at H5.  If just a smidge more ejects from the SW, game on.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Scrapes us

But manages to get like 6" to us.  2 feet for my mom in SC.   9 in ATL  16 for CLT

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Scrapes us

Well if you call 6" for DC metro scraping lol... but I get where you are going

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Its so close and you can tell pretty early at H5.  If just a smidge more ejects from the SW, game on.

Based on the huge changes from its 00z run it’s still figuring things out.  Wouldnt be surprised to see more big shifts.  Let’s reel this one in. 

[hstorm]

CMC actually has a pretty nice 24-hour snow map for Weds, even though we miss the best to the south.  

[stormtracker]

Hear me out, and this may sound crazy.   I don't think my mom in NE South Carolina is going to get 24"

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Hear me out, and this may sound crazy.   I don't think my mom in NE South Carolina is going to get 24"

Road trip?

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Its so close and you can tell pretty early at H5.  If just a smidge more ejects from the SW, game on.

That’s important for sure, but how the northern stream and TPV play is equally critical. Tendency, as we’ve seen, is for the northern stream to suppress this far south. Need the TPV to move out of the way AND some northern energy to phase into the west side to pull it back north. Otherwise it’s just congrats Charleston.