TSSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Nasty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 11:26 AM, snowfan said: In the long range, gfs and euro op are now a bit closer wrt keeping that SER at bay. Euro showing a more pronounced cold push, but no extended AN temps on either op run right now. Expand I think so long as the pac jet continues to undercut the wpo epo ridge we will be ok. That puts pressure on the pac ridge to be poleward and for the cold to press east and not dig into the southwest. this has been a seasonal constant and is related to the pdo flipping phases on us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 11:38 AM, TSSN+ said: Nasty Expand Seems like all guidance now keying in on Tue morning being the coldest of the season so far with below 0 WCs. Some schools in the area are off tue for semester break, but for those that are open, I could see delayed starts. That’s how we roll nowadays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 11:39 AM, psuhoffman said: I think so long as the pac jet continues to undercut the wpo epo ridge we will be ok. That puts pressure on the pac ridge to be poleward and for the cold to press east and not dig into the southwest. this has been a seasonal constant and is related to the pdo flipping phases on us. Expand We have so much leeway when the PDO isn't -3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 10:31 AM, Ji said: Gfs has a massive miller A. Can that possibly disappear in future runs ? Expand If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:12 PM, stormtracker said: If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 11:04 AM, BristowWx said: Yes ..yes it can. Expand No it can't. It's within 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:12 PM, stormtracker said: If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:12 PM, stormtracker said: If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? Expand I want in on this. If it’s there for 12, 18, 0z I will never mention the best Superman movie ever again to troll you. If not I want $10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:12 PM, stormtracker said: If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? Where is the storm 1000 miles wide gonna go lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:47 PM, H2O said: I want in on this. If it’s there for 12, 18, 0z I will never mention the best Superman movie ever again to troll you. If not I want $10 Expand He didn't mention it had to hit us. He just said a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:55 PM, yoda said: He didn't mention it had to hit us. He just said a storm Expand Yup, that's a sucker bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Call me a , but I think it's important for Sunday's system to hit as consensus is now showing. Bob Chill calls them train tracks while I call it seasonal pattern, the point is that there are areas favored in every season. The MA generally was the bullseye last Monday and would at least do as well as any other area with Sunday's current consensus. We couldn't ask for more if we are looking for a seasonal pattern imho. Obviously, no guarantees and there could be different areas in the MA favored over others with each storm. But in short, it's a good sign for future threats despite model runs. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:12 PM, stormtracker said: If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? Expand Better get your 5 bucks ready lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:15 PM, mitchnick said: Call me a , but I think it's important for Sunday's system to hit as consensus is now showing. Bob Chill calls them train tracks while I call it seasonal pattern, the point is that there are areas favored in every season. The MA generally was the bullseye last Monday and would at least do as well as any other area with Sunday's current consensus. We couldn't ask for more if we are looking for a seasonal pattern imho. Obviously, no guarantees and there could be different areas in the MA favored over others with each storm. But in short, it's a good sign for future threats despite model runs. Expand Appreciate you dropping model snapshot analysis. I really don't have a lot of free time until late in the day and by then.... buddy I'm tired lol Train tracks in my brain are either seasonal door to door or these weird "hot streaks" that oddly repeat even when mid/long range models never really shows it but short term we're "Again?!" (For better or worse lol). 2013-14 was a year of seasonal train tracks in a good way and some more recent winters have been the same but in a VERY bad NOT good kinda way lol. 2014-15 is the starkest example I can think of where it was chapters of tracks in the seasonal book. Jan 2015 was probably the most nerve grating month I've been thru. It was the birth of the "Scumstonian River" lololol... lookin at you Jebman! Hahaha. But when the tracks FINALLY shifted it was game fookin on. So far this year feels more seasonal than chapters. A bit muddy because the hemispheric pattern is quite different than the last month but the end result is still pretty good. I was getting the seasonal feel during Dec but Dec is curveball city. Now we can kinda see into Feb and the MA is solidly in the game. How long it holds is anyone's guess at this point but there has been zero tendency for things to become all ridgy or rainy. Steady as she goes.... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:40 PM, Wonderdog said: No it can't. It's within 300 hours. Expand Fair enough. Under 300 lock MA rule 33-4 section 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 what did the 06z euro look like for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:49 PM, Ji said: Where is the storm 1000 miles wide gonna go lol? Expand Have you been paying attention? This storm has been anywhere from Bermuda, up the coast, or not even there. I mean if it’s a classic Miller A as shown, then u win the bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:47 PM, H2O said: I want in on this. If it’s there for 12, 18, 0z I will never mention the best Superman movie ever again to troll you. If not I want $10 Expand Reverse that bet and u got a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:55 PM, yoda said: He didn't mention it had to hit us. He just said a storm Expand On 1/16/2025 at 12:57 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Yup, that's a sucker bet Expand On 1/16/2025 at 1:16 PM, winter_warlock said: Better get your 5 bucks ready lol Expand I clarified. Has to be as shown on 6z But anyway, this is fun but it doesn’t matter We all know how this goes I hate that the GFS keeps getting later and into the weekend I’m supposed to go to Columbus, OH (on purpose) to see my fav composer on Friday night But that’s def cancellable 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6z euro Ai buries the energy out west. Lot of shortwaves have been doing that this year so could be correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:55 PM, Heisy said: 6z euro Ai buries the energy out west. Lot of shortwaves have been doing that this year so could be correct. . Expand Ridge rolls over and traps the sw energy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 2:02 PM, Allsnow said: Ridge rolls over and traps the sw energy Plausible scenario, 6z gfs almost did that before it was able to escape. I’ll worry about it later, hoping we can cash in 3-6 on Sunday . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:55 PM, Heisy said: 6z euro Ai buries the energy out west. Lot of shortwaves have been doing that this year so could be correct. . Expand I still don't think the AI can be trusted any more than the EPS past 5 days. With more attention to it, we may have a better idea in the coming weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 2:04 PM, mitchnick said: I still don't think the AI can be trusted any more than the EPS past 5 days. With more attention to it, we may have a better idea in the coming weeks. Expand The AI took a bit of the wind out of my sails this morning. Lets hope it locks in to another event before months end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 2:22 PM, Allsnow said: The AI took a bit of the wind out of my sails this morning. Lets hope it locks in to another event before months end Expand I think like any other guidance the AI is especially notable when it locks in and doesn't make a change run-after-run. It's pretty stupendous that it hasn't changed for the Sunday system, but not giving it a ton of credence too far beyond that if it bounces around like other models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:51 PM, stormtracker said: Have you been paying attention? This storm has been anywhere from Bermuda, up the coast, or not even there. I mean if it’s a classic Miller A as shown, then u win the bet. Expand send me your venmo anyway.....i want want to send you some royalties for Dr no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:54 PM, stormtracker said: I clarified. Has to be as shown on 6z But anyway, this is fun but it doesn’t matter We all know how this goes I hate that the GFS keeps getting later and into the weekend I’m supposed to go to Columbus, OH (on purpose) to see my fav composer on Friday night But that’s def cancellable Expand If you're talking about Beethoven, then awesome Which work are you going to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 2:35 PM, Ji said: send me your venmo anyway.....i want want to send you some royalties for Dr no Expand Now we talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just bringing this over here so I have my bases covered: On 1/16/2025 at 2:40 PM, mattie g said: I'm liking the idea of 3-6" of cold smoke, but I'm convinced that if we max on Sunday then the midweek thing is toast due to wave spacing or energy being left behind or vorts squashing or someshit that I know nothing about. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts