ravensrule Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 7:30 PM, mitchnick said: If I could step in and say from experience that it's just best not to respond to others you may not agree with historically. For example, there's a guy on this site who I won't even answer. He's nothing but trouble. I can't remember his screen name, but all I can say is that I Hate'm. I mean I really Hate'm and have stopped all contact. Just a thought. P.s. intended as a joke by the way Expand Jihad is not a bad guy deep down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:09 PM, DDweatherman said: What do we name this one? Hmm thing was already used Expand @stormtrackernamed it: The Roulette Wheel Storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:14 PM, WEATHER53 said: So you now agree with me that the models DO NOT predict weather but rather provide samples of a wide variety of possible outcomes. Then change that every 6 hours. I would also say the rest of them did not show “nothing” Expand do you not understand how probabilisitic modeling works - like just from a foundational statistical perspective? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 7:07 PM, mitchnick said: EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800 Expand Excuse me if this was already covered in depth, but does this "AI" model use verification data as a training set for the model and offset the prognosticated/ computed values at each forecast hour based on historical bias/ machine learning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We need to start the thread soon enough for us to be able to close it to bring the storm back if necessary 1 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 5:31 PM, WeatherQ said: Haven’t seen your name since NWS Philly on Arch Street back when I interned before the Mount Holly move when Chet and Dean were there! Hello Sir Expand Hi! That's wayyyyyy back even before. my last move BOX got PHI in June 2010 (HOT summer there). Hopefully it's a good life for all participants hereon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I’m good with 2 new threads 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:15 PM, stormtracker said: I'm telling yall, we're gonna keep getting all sevens on each model every few runs. The choice time is when they all settle on triple 7s...which we won't know probably until Friday for the Sunday thing and Sunday for the mid week thing. Fun times, IMO. Even better is watching most folks here swing like human pendulums run to run. Oh what a time! Expand Verifications: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:18 PM, psuhoffman said: We need to start the thread soon enough for us to be able to close it to bring the storm back if necessary Expand New thread been give (for Sunday threat) The Weekend Roulette Wheel Thing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 7:40 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Scrolling through the past Euro AI runs it has been remarkably consistent for the Sunday event, all the way back to 18z on Janaury 11th it has basically shown the same thing. It's been way more consistent than the GFS and even a bit more consistent than the regular Euro. I'm not saying that means it will be correct but it's interesting how little it's oscillated. Expand It doesn’t mean this is a lock, guarentee, etc…but that’s a pretty good sign at lead that it might be on to something. Now, this pattern incoming is very complex, so it might not grasp the magnitude of what’s to come, but you want to see run-to-run consistency on the AI, that’s for sure. Hopefully it’s seeing something that the operational ECMWF can connect with as we move closer. We shall see. A good experiment for this pattern. I’ll be keeping tabs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Don't worry. Extended EPS like February. Hard to believe it now goes into March... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 9:23 PM, Weather Will said: Don't worry. Extended EPS like February. Hard to believe it now goes into March... Expand The key to this is whether the scandinavian ridge connects with the aleutian ridge to drop the AO and keep the cold across the CONUS. Something to keep an eye on, because if this connection fails, we may see more SE ridging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 9:36 PM, Terpeast said: The key to this is whether the scandinavian ridge connects with the aleutian ridge to drop the AO and keep the cold across the CONUS. Something to keep an eye on, because if this connection fails, we may see more SE ridging. Expand EPS and CMC ens have been trending in that direction for late month. GEFS took a step towards that today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 9:42 PM, CAPE said: EPS and CMC ens have been trending in that direction for late month. GEFS took a step towards that today. Expand yeah, this really isn't warm. can see a cutter beating the gradient down for a colder system following up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:02 PM, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, this really isn't warm. can see a cutter beating the gradient down for a colder system following up Expand People tend to freak out and misinterpret a mean when they see this look. Oh noes a SER!! There are paths to victory with this advertised h5 pattern on the ensembles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gfs even more supressive/progressive than 12z day 6. At least we're not losing to a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The 18z rgem looks like the Euro AI at 84 hours. Models having issues parsing the shortwave on its speed and strength as it rounds the base. Money is on the euro Ai. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:16 PM, Heisy said: The 18z rgem looks like the Euro AI at 84 hours. Models having issues parsing the shortwave on its speed and strength as it rounds the base. Money is on the euro Ai . Expand There's a separate thread made for that wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS @189, lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:29 PM, Solution Man said: GFS @189, lets see Expand Goofy shenanigans seem to be in progress 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:30 PM, WxUSAF said: Goofy shenanigans seem to be in progress Expand This model is irritating at best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 "do y'all like ice" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:33 PM, bncho said: "do y'all like ice" Expand Xtra ice for me Clark 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I hate the fucking GFS 3 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Yeah fuck that noise. Well. It has a storm. So there’s that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Western folks won’t mind that HH solution. Nice to see it has the storm at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 That is some straight up BS right there WTF 3 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:47 PM, stormtracker said: I hate the fucking GFS Expand It’s the Doctor I don’t know model! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:49 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah fuck that noise. Well. It has a storm. So there’s that. Expand Bruh how is it gonna be all supressive then somehow turn that in a cutter, lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We are clearly in model roulette!!! Tonight at 11:18 we will get a “Folks”! lol I must say I’m having fun with this only because with the amount of cold coming it pretty much favors mostly wintery I hope. Let’s just say some kind of WildWeather is coming next week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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