psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: So you now agree with me that the models DO NOT predict weather but rather provide samples of a wide variety of possible outcomes. Then change that every 6 hours. I would also say the rest of them did not show “nothing” They are tools. And yes they are models showing possible outcomes, or permutations. Since we are not able to predict with 100% accuracy and each of the models we have is flawed in some way, every one will show a slightly different outcome as you increase the time range of the prediction. And that outcome will change every 6 hours as we get new information. It's up to us to make this useful. I find them useful. IF we didn't have the model guidance we would have no idea there was the risk of a major winter event over the southeast next week! Whether it comes further up the coast is less known, but we can say right now its not the most likely outcome but its possible. That's better than nothing which is what we would know without the guidance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12z EPS mean for the Wednesday-Friday period. I'm fine with this tbh. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 @WEATHER53 You use the guidance correctly all the time. You make posts where you see what the guidance shows and you say "this is not common, with the high there it will be colder" or "that SLP track would actually produce this". That is the right way to use the guidance...not to just take what it says and issue a forecast...but to adjust the guidance based on experience and probabilities and in a way to "predict how the guidance is wrong" and adjust for it. And at long leads like for next weeks storm...the operational runs are not to be taken with much weight...its about taking the full run of guidance including ensembles and get an idea of what the most likely outcome is based on the consensus of all that guidance adjusted with your experience from historical examples. Your critique of how the guidance is used seems geared towards how the weenies online use it, but who cares what randos do for fun. That isn't how profesionals do it. I ignore the noise from facebook and twitter weenies and hype merchants. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They are tools. And yes they are models showing possible outcomes, or permutations. Since we are not able to predict with 100% accuracy and each of the models we have is flawed in some way, every one will show a slightly different outcome as you increase the time range of the prediction. And that outcome will change every 6 hours as we get new information. It's up to us to make this useful. I find them useful. IF we didn't have the model guidance we would have no idea there was the risk of a major winter event over the southeast next week! Whether it comes further up the coast is less known, but we can say right now its not the most likely outcome but its possible. That's better than nothing which is what we would know without the guidance. Ok so tools for making a prediction but not an actual prediction . I think I finally get it . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EPS mean for the Wednesday-Friday period. I'm fine with this tbh. It's fine there for now... as I've said above, the most likely outcome at this range is still a miss south...but not by so much that we are out of the game. This has more chance to trend north than the waves did with that block in the way. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's fine there for now... as I've said above, the most likely outcome at this range is still a miss south...but not by so much that we are out of the game. This has more chance to trend north than the waves did with that block in the way. Regardless - I'm genuinely pretty stoked for the deep south people if this pans out. Cool to see historic cold and snowfall there... buys us some time on the doomsday clock, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, psuhoffman said: @WEATHER53 You use the guidance correctly all the time. You make posts where you see what the guidance shows and you say "this is not common, with the high there it will be colder" or "that SLP track would actually produce this". That is the right way to use the guidance...not to just take what it says and issue a forecast...but to adjust the guidance based on experience and probabilities and in a way to "predict how the guidance is wrong" and adjust for it. And at long leads like for next weeks storm...the operational runs are not to be taken with much weight...its about taking the full run of guidance including ensembles and get an idea of what the most likely outcome is based on the consensus of all that guidance adjusted with your experience from historical examples. Your critique of how the guidance is used seems geared towards how the weenies online use it, but who cares what randos do for fun. That isn't how profesionals do it. I ignore the noise from facebook and twitter weenies and hype merchants. I’m getting better understanding now. I kept a 60 page diary of set ups and outcomes . I use that. I don’t use models for predictions of low pressure systems in the winter. If I see a 1030 high on southern Hudson Bay predicted 5-7 days out I know from experience that will mostly come true because it mostly has. Not the same at all for storms. I think we are doing better now by explaining things back and forth and not arguing and we often conclude the same things between us but via different methods. Thanks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Ok so tools for making a prediction but not an actual prediction . I think I finally get it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If I was in ATL or NC I’d be pretty stoked rn. That part has been pretty consistent in all the models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Multiple screen names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I’m getting better understanding now. I kept a 60 page diary of set ups and outcomes . I use that. I don’t use models for predictions of low pressure systems in the winter. If I see a 1030 high on southern Hudson Bay predicted 5-7 days out I know from experience that will mostly come true because it mostly has. Not the same at all for storms. I think we are doing better now by explaining things back and forth and not arguing and we often conclude the same things between us but via different methods. Thanks I agree this is more productive discourse. Just so you know, honestly, I was just trying to make a light hearted joke yesterday and you went off. I realize we have had tense exchanges in the past so I will admit that I probably should not have tried to joke around, but it was not meant to start a nuclear exchange. Honest! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Multiple screen names Been on the board about as long as you. I go back to Wright-Weather Days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Been on the board about as long as you. I go back to Wright-Weather DaysOff topic, if you want some entertainment use the way back machine and you can read some posts from the old days lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Some of them aren’t gonna make it. They'll be grasping at the Kuchera for RAP and the like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Off topic, if you want some entertainment use the way back machine and you can read some posts from the old days lol . I'd prefer to forget, lol I was 13 and obnoxious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 At 168 hours I really thought the OP euro was going to phase the left over S stream energy and the N stream and bring a storm up the coast, but the flow was a bit progressive i suppose. The storm on the GFS was induced by the N stream diving down since there was no left over S energy. Long way to go to figure that one out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I'd prefer to forget, lol I was 13 and obnoxious At least you're not 13 anymore JK 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Been on the board about as long as you. I go back to Wright-Weather Days OMG! Same! That goes WAAYYY back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week.The EPS and CMC ensembles for Sunday are ridiculously different for this time range. EPS is kind of concerning being so dry . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week. I bet back in 2014 and 2015 the spread would have been even worse...so bad actually that we had no clue there was even this kind of potential at these ranges... none of our snow those years was really clear on guidance past about 72 hours. These types of patterns are not good for long lead tracking. The issue I think now is the guidance is better so we actually do have some idea what the period will look like and the threats...so now its frustrating that these waves move around every run and model to model...because we want some clarity. 10 years ago we would have no idea at all what was coming and what the specific threats were so we didn't get bothered by the crazy swings at 100+ hours. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week. AI Euro has been solid as a rock for Sunday. Kind of riding that as my expectation - it's an outcome which would make everyone happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, Quasievil said: OMG! Same! That goes WAAYYY back. same the good old days maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 To put this in perspective, I remember one of the events in early Feb 2014 I was up in Pine Gove PA that year...but still participating in this forum, and at about 72 hours out you were all rooting for a north trend on a wave that was supposed to be suppressed south of you...and it ended up giving me 8" of snow up in central PA and was mostly rain for DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AI Euro has been solid as a rock for Sunday. Kind of riding that as my expectation - it's an outcome which would make everyone happy. Mitch is gonna come along any second and tell us that 12z it lost the storm lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Mitch is gonna come along any second and tell us that 12z it lost the storm lol Nope. Opposite! Lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, mitchnick said: Nope. Opposite! Lol Well that was a nice surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 22 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Been on the board about as long as you. I go back to Wright-Weather Days Which does not address the statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree this is more productive discourse. Just so you know, honestly, I was just trying to make a light hearted joke yesterday and you went off. I realize we have had tense exchanges in the past so I will admit that I probably should not have tried to joke around, but it was not meant to start a nuclear exchange. Honest! I don’t much ascribe to the “just kidding” business and it took several more for things to escalate. I do however acknowledge and admire your comments in the overall . How about don’t chide you and you don’t chide me? We just work toward a common good of quality weather info as Each of us desires to present it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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