snowfan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6z gfs 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6z Icon essentially lost Sunday except for lt snow in central VA as opposed to the 3-5" on 0z. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6z Euro is stuck at 39hrs. Anybody past that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EuroAI same on Sunday with between .2-.3" of qpf. Next week is a moderate hit with more qpf south and east. It actually has a follow-up storm a day or 2 later with very light qpf. What a variety of solutions. Lol 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The 6z GFS is a lot of fail. 6 degrees and then a rainer a few days later as it cuts. Reminds me of the Jan 2022 storm where it was Snow 2 inches, then rain and 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6z Euro moving again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I should have added, 6z Eps kept moving and looked almost identical to 0z, so odds are operational will be close to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Does the model inconsistency have anything to do with the serious cold air in place, or cold air coming? Just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: The 6z GFS is a lot of fail. 6 degrees and then a rainer a few days later as it cuts. Reminds me of the Jan 2022 storm where it was Snow 2 inches, then rain and 60. I wouldn’t get too worked up about the GFS. It’s been pretty inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Tuesday looks pleasant on the euro. Shirtless run after work? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, snowfan said: 6z gfs 979 right over our heads. I'll take the under. What a trash model it has become. I don't even look at it anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 21 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: The 6z GFS is a lot of fail. 6 degrees and then a rainer a few days later as it cuts. Reminds me of the Jan 2022 storm where it was Snow 2 inches, then rain and 60. Not for everyone its not. Inland runners are of course going to rain on you. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 979 right over our heads. I'll take the under. What a trash model it has become. I don't even look at it anymore. Well, if you look at tracks of low pressure systems over the past say eight years during the winter months, there has been many inland trackers, coastal huggers and our favorite, "the cutter ". Not sure why this is, blocking, Atlantic ocean SSTs, etc. Have not seen many benchmark storms. Maybe others could chime in as to the reason. But yes, the GFS is lost totally. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6z GEFS for late next week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6z GEFS for late next week 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 35 minutes ago, snowfan said: Tuesday looks pleasant on the euro. Shirtless run after work? It's like two days below normal before the 40's return. Not impressed lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I’m focused on the threat at d4.5 to try and get 3-5” Sunday. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Etta Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 hours ago, wdrag said: Good morning mid-Atlantic, Can someone alert me (or post a reply) if anyone there has been looking at Inauguration Day weather in of course DC. In particular I'm looking for information regarding this possibly being the worst wintry Inauguration Day since 1961 (Kennedy Inaugural storm). Seems to me--(my guess only) looks like Noon temps mid 20s with wind, a colder wind chill 10-15 and inch or 2 of snow still left on the ground? If that were true, did anyone review all the inauguration days for wintry conditions? Rain doesn't bother me for my information. Snow on the ground and temps below freezing are my interest. I see nothing in the headlines from LWX, but it might be buried somewhere--I just haven't taken the time to check. Thank you, Walt The Capital Weather Gang did a whole article on historical Inauguration weather yesterday. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/14/inauguration-day-forecast-dc-weather-cold-wind/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Halfway through this winter and it is firmly out of ratter territory, after many of us expected a ratter. I’m happy with the way things ate going. And no we’re not going to get a MECS every other week. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I’m focused on the threat at d4.5 to try and get 3-5” Sunday. Same. There doesn't even seem to be any real consensus for Sunday, so thinking about something beyond that seems like chasing ghosts. And the Euro last night looked great for Sunday. Step back this morning, obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Halfway through this winter and it is firmly out of ratter territory, after many of us expected a ratter. I’m happy with the way things ate going. And no we’re not going to get a MECS every other week. Nah, we are going to get two per week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Sunday on 6z Euro AI is wetter. Pure guess based on lousy maps, but 3-4" generally? But next week shifted east with a scrapper. Don't worry about next week because AI just as jumpy as other models 5+ days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Stating the obvious the models have shown every possibility for Saturday through Monday over the last 7 days. Anyone have that wheel we can spin? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Does the model inconsistency have anything to do with the serious cold air in place, or cold air coming? Just asking. You cannot expect the models to be even close to a final solution over a week out. One little change in the near term can have huge changes down the road. We just like fantasy snow... nothing more than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sunday on 6z Euro AI is wetter. Pure guess based on lousy maps, but 3-4" generally? But next week shifted east with a scrapper. Don't worry about next week because AI just as jumpy as other models 5+ days out. Has hits for the next two waves after Thursday fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Has hits for the next two waves after Thursday fwiw From what I'm seeing, they are mainly east and barely scrape the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, mitchnick said: From what I'm seeing, they are mainly east and barely scrape the area. Is this the 06.z run? Weatherbell only has 00z currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Is this the 06.z run? Weatherbell only has 00z currently Yes. 6z the 2 moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Is this the 06.z run? Weatherbell only has 00z currently Here's a link to EuroAI products from free Euro site. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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