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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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Just now, stormtracker said:

Ya know, I still don't get enough credit and props for naming the Euro Doctor No.   Can I claim royalties from my own board?

You got a nickel and a dime in snow. That's surely enough.

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5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Didn't most models sniff out the big blizzards (2010s, 2016 Jan) one week out?

While this is true, you can't forget that both of those seasons were Ninos and we have a much more active polar jet with the current Nina regime. There is a lot more northern stream energy flying around which can muddle the long range upper level progression. While the general idea is in place here, how far back the Western shortwave is pulled back, strength of ridging, and timing of the phase would translate to a number of different outcomes. Nothing is guaranteed - but the ceiling is high with this setup. 

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

beautiful....Some of that far NW of the cities is Saturday snow.  There is a lot of CAD.  It's unclear what happens Saturday to me other than lack of moisture

Are we still at the stage where we should root against this one to get more of the next one...or are the two no longer correlating?

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

The precip/snow maps have been running way ahead of some of the others.  So you can kind of see if the run sucks

This run makes no sense considering both the Ukie and Gem. Plenty of time to break more hearts. Focus on Sunday because whatever happens then will have an effect on next week.

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Good morning mid-Atlantic,

Can someone alert me (or post a reply)  if anyone there has been looking at Inauguration Day weather in of course DC.  In particular I'm looking for information regarding this possibly being the worst wintry Inauguration Day since 1961 (Kennedy Inaugural storm).  Seems to me--(my guess only) looks like Noon temps mid 20s with wind, a colder wind chill 10-15 and inch or 2 of snow still left on the ground?  If that were true,  did anyone review all the inauguration days for wintry conditions?  Rain doesn't bother me for my information.  Snow on the ground and temps below freezing are my interest. I see nothing in the headlines from LWX, but it might be buried somewhere--I just haven't taken the time to check.  Thank you,  Walt

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good morning mid-Atlantic,

Can someone alert me (or post a reply)  if anyone there has been looking at Inauguration Day weather in of course DC.  In particular I'm looking for information regarding this possibly being the worst wintry Inauguration Day since 1961 (Kennedy Inaugural storm).  Seems to me--(my guess only) looks like Noon temps mid 20s with wind, a colder wind chill 10-15 and inch or 2 of snow still left on the ground?  If that were true,  did anyone review all the inauguration days for wintry conditions?  Rain doesn't bother me for my information.  Snow on the ground and temps below freezing are my interest. I see nothing in the headlines from LWX, but it might be buried somewhere--I just haven't taken the time to check.  Thank you,  Walt

President Ronald Reagan’s second inauguration on January 21, 1985, was super cold. The morning low was -4°F and by noon, it had risen to only 7°F. Wind chill values during the afternoon ranged from -10°F to -20°F. Due to this, the public swearing-in ceremony was moved indoors to the Capitol Rotunda, and the inaugural parade was canceled.

Barack Obama’s first inauguration on January 20, 2009, was also fairly cold. Daytime high around 30°F, morning low of 19°F and 28°F at noon during the oath. Wind at 13 mph gusting 23.  IIRC There was no snow on Inauguration Day itself, though some had fallen in the days prior and was cleared. .

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