mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 1:45 AM, Terpeast said: I wouldn’t take AI too seriously when it comes to thermals. While they do pretty well at upper level verification, they actually do poorly with temps. Expand When you leave your current employer, let me know beforehand as I'll need you to get me some docs there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 1:45 AM, Heisy said: Woof . Expand If it ends up a Lakes cutter, you'll be seeing this post again...trust me! Lol 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 1:47 AM, mitchnick said: When you leave your current employer, let me know beforehand as I'll need you to get me some docs there! Expand Haha don’t hold your breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 1:40 AM, dallen7908 said: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/bamsD190014.xml ok, only tangentially related, but if you're in the mood to read about some real cold - and Laura Ingalls Wilder - check out the link. Expand Thats funny, Ive been reading that book this winter. Yeah, I know it's for young readers but at a few hundred pages and stories of blizzards, it's an enjoyable read on those cold nights. Also won a couple awards iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 1:41 AM, psuhoffman said: They do but they also still show signs of the pac jet undercutting in the central pacific and now signs of the AO going negative again. It wouldn’t take much adjustment to shift cold back into the east. Even the look they show wouldn’t be hopeless as trailing waves would have potential with cold close by. Expand CFS has us not too brutally cold and not warm either thus has us right on the edge for many systems between now and PD...fwiw. So yeah, a little push back on the SER tendencies and it really wont take much. I think we are in a fine spot tbh with no signs of pac puke, no linkup between nao and said ser, and that Mongolian air readily available with near constant ridging in the epo region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 1:45 AM, Heisy said: Woof . Expand Is that southern vort the same 'hurricane' tightly wound vort the gfs had off the s cali coast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 2:05 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that southern vort the same 'hurricane' tightly wound vort the gfs had off the s cali coast? Expand It made landfall!!?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 2:05 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that southern vort the same 'hurricane' tightly wound vort the gfs had off the s cali coast?I don’t think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 2:05 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that southern vort the same 'hurricane' tightly wound vort the gfs had off the s cali coast? Expand Nope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 1:58 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Thats funny, Ive been reading that book this winter. Yeah, I know it's for young readers but at a few hundred pages and stories of blizzards, it's an enjoyable read on those cold nights. Also won a couple awards iirc. Expand The best book I read years ago was a book. By Paul Kocin. About winter storms!! Fantastic read!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 2:02 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: CFS has us not too brutally cold and not warm either thus has us right on the edge for many systems between now and PD...fwiw. So yeah, a little push back on the SER tendencies and it really wont take much. I think we are in a fine spot tbh with no signs of pac puke, no linkup between nao and said ser, and that Mongolian air readily available with near constant ridging in the epo region. Expand I'd rather just be cold enough for snow instead of brutal cold... alot of time the brutal cold deep troughs in east tend to suppress storms.. in my opinion 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Long term temperature normals are a smoothed average. If you remove the smoothing, that is, examine the actual daily averages for the past 50 years in the NE Corridor, you'll find the there are two separate annual min temps, one centered around Jan 20 and another Feb 5. In between those dates is a slight warm up, sometimes called the January thaw. This year might follow that pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Icon looks good @114 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ICON looks good for the Sunday deal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 3:17 AM, SnowenOutThere said: ICON looks good for the Sunday deal Expand 1002 slp vs 1008 at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3-5+" 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 3:22 AM, mitchnick said: 3-5+" Expand We take 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 pre-Kuchera-ing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 3:24 AM, mitchnick said: Expand That's a decent hit!!! Hoping GFS comes around to that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlvr Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Bonus snow in Stafford! Where did this come from???. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Icon looked good for a moderate event ... but. It's the Icon.. im mildly optimistic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 2:38 AM, winter_warlock said: The best book I read years ago was a book. By Paul Kocin. About winter storms!! Fantastic read!! Expand Have both of those as well. The bibles of NE US Winter Storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 3:29 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Have both of those as well. The bibles of NE US Winter Storms. Expand Yessir!!! Great reads!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Icon a no-go for the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 3:33 AM, Deck Pic said: you cant ignore the storm before the storm. Especially when the storm is possibly nonexistent. Expand Hey, I'm always a bird in the hand is worth a heck of a lot more than 2 in the bush. Gimme almost 6" in 4 days and I'm not even thinking about 8 days away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 3:32 AM, mitchnick said: Icon a no-go for the 23rd Expand It's gotta be correct. I mean the FL panhandle has historic ice storms regularly right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 3:38 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Expand Those shrimp trawlers better batten down the hatches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS is gonna get it right this time. Mark my words. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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